Rick Ackerman

An interesting day, since nearly everything went the 'wrong' way: stocks, the Nasdaq 100 and even the lunatic sector were down while the dollar actually rose. Bullion got hit pretty hard, crude fell, and AAPL's solid gains from earlier in the day were reversed. Could the foregoing herald a major tone change? It's possible, although I have my doubts. In any event, I will stay closely focused on a $490 rally target in AAPL, since there is strong technical evidence to suggest it will be achieved. If so, look for Wednesday's selloff to reverse and for recent trends, including the bullish one in bullion, to resume.

AAPL still has a rally target outstanding at 490.97, a 6% move from  here. If the stock achieves it, the stock market, particularly the tech stocks, are certain to move higher in sympathy. How likely is this? Very, I'd say, given the ease with which buyers gapped through Hidden Pivot levels represented by, respectively, a green line and a red one. Even so, the stock has looked heavy for the last few days and may need to pull back to get some running room. The first hint that a more significant decline is under way would be signaled by an unpaused drop below 452.18, a number that is equal to a technically important low recorded last Friday before the stock's most recent advance. Minor trouble would come on a print at 460.59. ______ UPDATE (Aug 20, 5:12 p.m. ET): AAPL remains the only stock we need get right in order to predict the stock market's important swings correctly. At the moment, it is keeping us from getting distracted by a bearish drumbeat based in part on a Bradley turn date yesterday. Because of this stock's crucial importance, I am focusing on lesser ABC patterns in order to get a very precise read on the stock as it makes its way toward a potentially important top just above, at 490.97.  Subscribers who shorted p2=472.99 in this chart could cover right now for a $124 profit on four round lots, but as I noted in a chat room post at 3:24 pm., the trade was not intended as an overnight hold.  You can short at D=479.92, but this is also  being recommended as a day  trade, very tightly stopped.

The S&Ps flirted with new record highs for the sixth straight day, waiting for news that could conceivably be used to squeeze shorts for a few headline inches. Besides the presumptive structural resistance at the old highs, there's an important Hidden Pivot obstacle that was first mentioned here in early June.  Together they represent layers of supply capable of keeping stocks from soaring into the wild blue yonder.  For now, I'm looking for a marginal new high that could provide an excellent opportunity to get short. AAPL, however, is a wild card. Currently trading for around 463, it looks primed for a thrust to 490. The stock would make an enticing short at that price, but it remains to be seen whether the broad averages will be at or near highs that would offer an equivalent opportunity.

I'll be tracking AAPL more closely than ever in the days ahead, since it is closing on a Hidden Pivot rally target with the potential to create a major top. If one occurs, the stock market will be topping as well, since Apple shares, valued at nearly $2 trillion, are the most important market bellwether of them all globally. The target lies at 490.97, and it is all but certain to be achieved, given the gap-up moves through x and p (see inset). I cannot guarantee that this will be THE top, since the pattern's point 'A' low is not very compelling. But there is just one logical alternative at 519.50 that would remain if 490.97 is easily exceeded. It comes from sliding 'A' down to the 236.90 low recorded on April 2. However, the pattern shown is sufficiently clear that a tradeable pullback from 490.97 is extremely likely. This scenario will make an excellent bet, presumably using put options priced below $1 that expire in about 8-12 days. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 7:15 p.m. ET) Buyers have turned uncharacteristically lugubrious, doing a Parkinson's shuffle atop the 457.37 'secondary' pivot rather than a sprightly jig. This implies AAPL may need to swoon in order to get a running start on 490.97.  Traders please note:  If the stock were to fall to p=423.78, that would trigger a mildly enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 401.38. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 5:48 p.m.): AAPL needs to close above the 464.36 top of the pooch-screwing range of the last three days to get back in gear.

News out late Friday afternoon that Buffett had taken a $563 million stake in Barrick Gold (GOLD) was greeted with proper enthusiasm, although it remains to be seen how much of the gusto will spill into Sunday's opening.  The stock rocketed more than $2 in after-hours trading to close at 29.18, the intraday high. Comex futures had stopped trading by then, but they should see a boost when activity resumes Sunday evening. At the very least, buyers should be able to push the December contract to the p=2008.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart (inset). Any higher, especially a two-day close above p, would shorten the odds of a further move to the pattern's 2143.50 'D' target. This number was broached here earlier and can serve as our best-case scenario for the week ahead. Even so, I plan to lay out a small, tightly-stopped short near 2008.90 if buyers do not demolish the resistance on Sunday's opening. This is just a straightforward, buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news bet. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 5:54 p.m. ET): A gratuitous mid-morning swoon was recouped quickly, but bulls were subsequently unable to take out the earlier high. If the futures go nowhere for another day or two, they made need to pull back for a running star at 2143.50.  P=1930.40 of this pattern would be a logical place for a bottom and a good place o try bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (Aug 19, 8:21 p.m.): The 1930.40 target drum-rolled above caught the low of today's $80 plunge within a dime. If you bottom-fished there as I'd suggested, the trade could have produced a quick gain of as much as $6,400 on four contracts. Since no one mentioned having done the trade, I have not established a tracking position. Further slippage would put the 1837.10 'D' target in

The futures spent an entire week screwing the pooch, unable to surpass the 3392.75 Hidden Pivot we've been using since June to stay aggressively on the right side of a senseless trend. I'd suggested taking a small put position in DIA or SPY over the weekend, but I'll wait till I hear from a few subscribers in the chat room before I decide whether to establish a tracking position. The failure of  bulls to take flight last week can be attributed to more than just a Hidden Pivot resistance; for in fact, it closely coincides with the all-time high at 3396.50 recorded on February 20. Bulls were bound to be skittish at these levels, and last week's nervous behavior may require an emetic and a running start to vault the futures into record territory. Although there are good reasons to expect this, we should be alert to the possibility that the wild stampede since March 23 is at or very near an end. _______ UPDATE (9:32 p.m.): Moments ago, the futures popped to my number exactly: 3392.75. Rather than pretend a target I've been drum-rolling since June is going to stop this frothing-at-the-mouth beast precisely, or that a day of consolidation has been squandered on creating a slightly higher high than the intraday peak, let me offer you a fresh perspective that could prove more useful. Specifically, I've redrawn the graph to show two very-closely spaced Hidden Pivot targets that lie, respectively, at 3999.25 and 3402.75.  The first is the 'D' terminus of a small ABCD; the second, the midpoint pivot of a much larger pattern tracing back to July 31. I strongly expect a tradeable top to occur at one number or the other, or perhaps midway between them; but if I had to pick one, I'd say 3402.75,

A fall to x=25.281 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.575, but if we are not gifted with such a juicy opportunity, we could try again at p or even p2 on a future retracement. In any event, the pattern's D target at 30.385 is in play following last week's decisive push past p=26.983.The futures slumped moderately on Friday, but this was before Buffett's apparently newfound interest in bullion was divulged after the close. Berkshire has taken a $563 million stake in Barrick, and this cannot but put a spring in the step of gold and silver for the foreseeable future. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 6:03 p.m.): A pullback to p=26.983 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 25.850. ______ UPDATE (Aug 19, 8:40 p.m.): Anyone do the trade? _______ UPDATE (Aug 20, 6:25 p.m.): It turns out that a few subscribers actually did take the trade. All would have made money, but I closed it out myself for a profit of around $3,100, notifying the room of this at 9:53 a.m. The trade is currently showing a profit of about $2,300 per contract for anyone still holding a position. My decision to exit was based on the strong look of the dollar's hourly chart. It could go either way, but the trade was predicated on a ride to p2=28.684, for a theoretical gain of about $8,500 per contract. For those of you who still hold a position, a stop-loss should be maintained at 25.840. This would yield a loss of about $5,200 per contract, excluding any offset from profits already taken.

Bullion fans were revved up after Friday's close when they learned that Warren Buffett had taken a plunge in bullion, acquiring shares of Barrick Gold worth about $563 million. This is welcome news, but it is also small potatoes for Berkshire Hathaway. Recall that when the investment firm bought $9.7 billion worth of Dominion Energy's gas transmission lines six weeks ago, it was seen as just a token bet on the energy patch. Still, if anyone is going to jump on a long-term trend before most have noticed it, it is Buffett. He may be a johnnie-come-lately compared to gold bugs who have been sitting on physical and accumulating mining shares for years, but it seems unlikely that Buffett would even bother with bullion if he did not see a favorable trend developing for the long term. Kissing Off Goldman Sachs To be sure, his defensive instincts are probably ratcheted to-the-max these days, in no small part because of the large position he has amassed in Apple. No one, least of all a legendary bargain-hunter like Buffett, could believe the consumer electronics firm's shares offer good value for a current $2 trillion. It should therefore come as no surprise that the Sage of Omaha has been edging toward hard-money assets to preserve his capital in these way-too-interesting times. Perhaps even more significant than his gold bet is a corresponding decision to exit the remainder of his position in Goldman Sachs and to greatly reduce positions in JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. We can reasonably infer that he sees lower profits ahead for paper-shufflers and deal-makers, and perhaps even for their trade desks. It does not require a big leap in logic to suggest as well that Buffett sees an end to financialization itself.  Although Berkshire has gone along with

Shhhh! Don't look now, but the S&Ps have tiptoed up to their all-time highs, presumably to attempt a quarterback sneak on Friday that would mute the hubris when they cross the goal line. DaBoyz don't want to jinx the rally or call attention to its surreal nature. After all, except for a handful of grotesquely overvalued tech stocks and some fast-food chains, America's economy, its largest cities and commercial real estate everywhere are slipping into a full-blown depression. Under the circumstances, the revelry on Wall Street is more than a little unseemly. In fact, it is a civilizational embarrassment whose dire consequences our children, their children and their children's children will be living with for the next hundred years.