Rick Ackerman

Although DaBoyz could easily short-squeeze this gas-bag to new record highs with just a dollop of fake good news, I've presented a chart that is somewhat bearish. The 7266.00 target lies just 3.5% below, and even though the tedious struggle between bulls and bears has yet to achieve it after six weeks, there is no reason to presume it will not be reached eventually. Bottom-fish when the futures get there, but be sure to use a 'camo' trigger, since my merely mentioning the target in print is likely to queer its magic and attract some clowns and Goldman algos. For the record, I have been won over by a strategy used successfully by chat-roomer 'Nick the Greek' that's pretty simple: short this hoax every time it pokes its greasy little snout above the water line. Nick's stops are wider than I would recommend, but his tactics seem to be working. I have yet to adjust to the shift to a bear market myself and am still bottom-fishing stocks like TSLA out of habit when they are falling like cinder blocks.  On Nick's inspiration, though, I hope to come around, and soon.

The week-ending, headless-chicken short-squeeze topped ever-so-slightly above June 1's fright-wig peak at 466.32, mainly because that's where a thousand clowns had placed their stop-loss. But let's see if the carnies who manipulate this stock for a living have the moxie to take on a second 'external' peak at 483.74 that was recorded on June 28.  I doubt it, but it should be the absolute minimum requirement for taking the rally seriously, since it would generate a bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree.  As things stand, Friday's high recouped 57% of the ground lost since a 555 was achieved a year ago. My guess is that Trump's habitual Sunday afternoon fake-out won't be quite enough to squeeze MSFT above 483.74 in off-hours trading, but even just a small follow-though after the opening bell will. Stay tuned.

I gave GDXJ the benefit of the doubt when last week ended, but all it did was add to the disappointment we've felt waiting and waiting...and waiting for gold to show a pulse. I set a low bar, and GDXJ didn't have to do much to turn the intraday charts short-term bullish. Alas, two falsely-signaled rallies sevened out, and so I've switched to a bearish pattern that projects more downside to 86.60.  I've aired another that implies even lower depths will be plumbed, down to 82.46 over the next 6-8 days. For now, though, let's take the bad news one target at a time. A 105.95 print would bull things up a bit, but let's not get excited until it happens.

We've been using 4.82% as a minimum upside projection, but it's time to shift the target to the 5.09% Hidden Pivot shown in the chart (see inset). The erratic ascent of long-term rates has been making headlines lately, but Rick's Picks subscribers have been expecting them to hit 5% for nearly a year. The crazed bull market has acted as though it doesn't care, but it soon will—or rather, must—demonstrating its concern with a stunning decline. Nothing spells big trouble for the U.S. economy like 7% mortgage rates that coincide with the highest home prices in history. The Ten-Year Note hasn't been at 5% since the Great Financial Crash of 2008-09. Although the crash itself caused rates to recede quickly to 4%, we may not be so "lucky" this time. If you haven't done so already, time is growing short to secure your assets—and your household—against a catastrophic  event that will rebuke financial excesses that have been piling up over decades.

Crude has pulled back sharply three times since its moon shot to 120 last March. The first two times, the subsequent rallies died precisely at their respective Hidden Pivot midpoints. If the third pullback to early July's 67.04 low produces the same result, which is what I expect, the current rally will sputter out at exactly 99.34, a Hidden Pivot midpoint just like the others.  The only other scenario worth pondering at the moment would be for buyers to rip through 99.34 with such ferocity as to practically guarantee more upside to the 131.63 target. It's possible, but only if something truly horrendous occurs to curtail the global supply of oil.  Take the odds on that outcome only if you can get at least 10-to-1.  Finally, if the uptrend exceeds p=99.34 without impaling it, that could mean there will be yet another leg up following a deep retracement, possibly into the 50s. ______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:30 p.m.): Oh, yeah, right, a fourth scenario --and who could not have seen it coming? There is word tonight of a 'pause' in U.S. air strikes, and of new 'talks' in Oman. Oil quotes have responded with a 7% drop to 83.10. Don't get your hopes too high for 'peace,' though, since the chart says prices for the September contract will fall no lower than 82.11. It is only if they crush that Hidden Pivot support, implying more downside to as low as 70.72, that you should believe the news is anything more than the usual Sunday night spin, calculated to slow the relentless rise of prices at the pump.  The 93.50 target that I suggested shorting (see my 11:29 post) on Friday has caught the exact-to-the-penny top of a $10 decline. If you still hold a position, use a 'dynamic' or impulsive

Seven weeks have gone by without a new high, each coaxing more traders into the bear camp. That's why this distribution has been so tedious: getting short has grown more appealing by the day. The result is that the broad averages have become more diabolically evasive, particularly for those trying to get short. And yet, we knew all along that Mr Market would provide no easy opportunities. Friday's whimpering climax looked like one, though -- at least for anyone bold enough to endure waiting for whatever news hits us on Sunday. My hunch is that anyone who got short at or near Friday's 7496.50 high will be in good shape.  That implies this vehicle is on its way down to at least 7357, where an important low occurred exactly one month ago; and thence to the 7261.75 target of the pattern shown. There will probably be a strong bounce from there, and although it must be shorted, there is no reason to think this will be easy.

The stock was an inch shy of triggering a buy signal on Friday, but I have presented a picture that is moderately bearish so that it is congruent with my pessimistic outlook for the E-Mini S&Ps. If the stock instead rallies to start the week, you can get short belatedly at the green line (x=392.85), using a stop-loss at 406.00. My downside target will remain 353.44 unless 406.00 is touched first.  If the stock falls straightaway to the pink line (p2=366.58), stay tuned, since it might open an opportunity to get short at the red line (p=379.72) with a generous stop.

I've set a high bar at 4403.70 to signal the possible end of a bear market that began in January, when the August contract hit a record 5700.  Otherwise, we should expect the weakness to continue at least until the 3793.40 target shown in the inset is achieved. There are two more Hidden Pivot supports you should be aware of, since either is capable of reversing the trend at least temporarily:  3822.70, the target of a smaller pattern that was featured here last week; and 3603.40, a worst-case projection derived from sliding 'A' up to the 5513.00 'marquee' high recorded on March 2. Of the three possibilities, I favor 3793.40, which is why I have boldfaced it. The other two will work for careful bottom-fishing, however. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 3:08 p.m.): Gold spent the entire week trading inside the previous week's range, so there is no change in my forecast.

I've used an unconventional 'A' high to project D=43.155 as a possible low for the bear market, but sliding it up to the 124.250 high recorded in January would yield a somewhat lower target at 39.730. Either could end the horrific slide that has wiped away 55% of silver's valuation, and 30% of gold's, since they topped in late January. I doubt that p2 (respectively 56.755 or 54.186) will ultimately arrest Silver's slide, even though this 'hidden' support has put the futures in a go-nowhere dither for the last month.  I should note that the two patterns have worked well for trading purposes, setting up a profitable short at the green line and another after Silver returned to the green line after a savage dip to 62.280 on March 23 low. This suggest they will both work for bottom-fishing. When you plot the gold:silver ratio on a Hidden Pivot chart, it shows the ratio, currently 69, peaking at p=89. If Silver were to fall to 43.155, that would imply a low in gold at 3840, which is close to two targets I've flagged in the gold tout above. We won't try to synch up all of the permutations, but the forecast of an 89 high for gold:silver should be held well in mind, since, as far as I'm aware, no other guru has attempted to predict its swings. Although it's possible they lack the tools, I am confident in the Hidden Pivot Method's ability to get it precisely right. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2): Like gold, silver' price action ;ast week was more boring than watching paint dry. The analysis above can therefore stand as given.