It took the futures several days to get off the launcher following the 'buy' signal noted here a week ago, but by Friday they were on their way to an all but certain rendezvous with the 104.94 target shown. Because investors are obsessed with oil's every move, we can infer that stocks will continue to fall as energy jitters ratchet higher. The target pattern is very well-formed for reasons I won't go into here, but that means D can be shorted with the tightest possible stop. Please note that a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot resistance would open a path to as high as 125.26 over the near term, or even to 178.89, a target broached here earlier.
Our week ended with a focus on the bearish, 6328.50 target shown. For reasons that I explained in the chat room, I do not expect this Hidden Pivot support to launch the kind of short squeeze that would put the fear of the lord in the multitudes who by now must be short up to their eyeballs. However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling, even if somewhat obvious, to deliver a tradeable turn with reasonable precision. As of Friday's close, possible trigger intervals for getting long ranged from 13.00 to 66.25 points, with a middling, third set-up requiring a 28.00 point reversal. I'll recommend using the 13.00-er, but only with a 'C' low planted in the range 6324.00- 6335.00. This trade is intended only for subscribers who perfectly understand my instruction. (The tactic is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course that is free to most subscribers, including new registrants who recently signed up for a full year.) _______ UPDATE (April 2, 10:51 a.m.): A Hidden Pivot at 6692.00, about 90 points above, is where I would suggest shorting this bear rally. It is not impregnable, and a rip through it would imply the move is capable of 7030.75. However, I doubt this will happen. Worst case for permabears: a rally to 6780 or so that pulls back to 6522. That would trigger a 'mechanical' buy so juicy that even I would be a buyer.
Microsoft was diddling an important Hidden Pivot support at 355.42 on Friday when bulls were likely saved by the bell. That's because any slippage beneath this 'secondary' support would portend more punishment down to as low as 332.67, the maxed-out 'D' target of the conventional pattern shown. Both numbers have been theoretically in play since mid-February, when sellers first drove the stock down to the green line (x=400.93). Because we treat MSFT as our #1 bellwether for the aging bull market, the implications of the stock's easy breach of p=378.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, are fraught with significance. If the stock is going to reverse from here, it will signal it via a booster-stage rally of 7.84 points. However, if the bounce comes off a low beneath 352 (or so), we shouldn't trust it completely. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:23): Microsoft is being manipulated higher the old-fashioned way, with short-squeeze gaps on opening bars. That is why the stock came down so far in the first place, and it will surely do so again, falling to the 332.67 target mentioned above. First, though, it looks likely to achieve will achieve a minimum 387.92 with this short-squeeze rally. A pullback to 364.42 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 356.57. (Did you know that the 'Last Price' given above corresponds to the price at which the stock was trading when this update was published? That is true for all of my updates.)
Five days of tedium could not push April Gold impulsively past the small but significant (i.e., 'look-to-the-left') peak at 4616.30 shown in the chart. That could change for the better with just a small leap, but until it happens there is no reason to give bulls the benefit of the doubt. However, just a little weakness could bring a test of a midpoint Hidden Support at 4282.90 that is associated with a 'D' target at 3964.70 (60-min, A=4736.30 on March 20). The higher number is where a reversal should occur if bulls are ready to take charge again following a month-long slide from 5434, but either Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished provided you understand how. A side note: Bullion has sagged since the start of the war with Iran, but why? Turkey's behavior may hold some answers. Although it has been one of the world's most aggressive sovereign buyers of gold over the past decade, it sold or swapped about 60 tons of gold worth $8 billion in two weeks after the start of the war. Reportedly, this was to support a disinflation strategy that relies on a stable lira. ______ UPDATE for JUNE Gold (March 31, 7:07p.m. ET): The futures have stalled precisely at a 4709,70 'd' target, but a breakout would clear a path to 4890.10, and thence to 5144.00. That last Hidden Pivot should offer precisely tradeable resistance, but its decisive penetration would announce that bulls are back in force.
If Gold was acting coy about its next move, May Silver ended the week looking primed to moved higher. The pattern shown triggered an appealing 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x= 67.434) that should be good for a ride to at least p=73.658 (nearly achieved on Friday), but to as high as 86.105 over the next 2-3 days. The set-up is 'textbook' enough to suggest that anyone who bought on Thursday is an 80% bet to make money. Sunday's opening is always unpredictable, but if trading begins with a fist-pump through p, you can be confident the move will reach the target more than $6 above.
Like Gold futures, this ETF proxy for junior miners spent the week in timid remission. Although it triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on Monday, the follow-through failed to reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance after four days of flailing. That could chain in a trice, however, presumably with a jump-start from May Silver, which looked ready to rumble when the week ended. As always, a strong push through p would clear a path to the 133.49 'd' target of the pattern shown.
The war with Iran has put investors in a deepening state of anxiety, since no one can say for sure how things will turn out. Wall Street’s obsessive focus has been on the price of oil, implicitly trusting that the supposed collective wisdom of markets is superior to whatever information we could glean from headlines and op-ed pages. The trouble is, the story that crude oil spins each day mutates with wild price swings that suggest the markets are an idiot, as clueless as we are. The charts I use to get a tight handle on the stock market are less confusing, however, and they are saying unequivocally that the bull market begun in 2009 is over. To state this in a disinterested, technical way, when ABCD corrections in bull markets start exceeding their ‘D’ targets, as occurred last week in the S&Ps, the major trend has changed. The small target-overshoot in the E-Mini S&P chart above tells us more about the stock market’s health, or lack thereof, than a cacophony of pundits and eggheads ever could. It says a bear market that has always been inevitable has finally begun. This will also mark the end of Trump’s heroic run, negating his magical ability to move the markets and to persuade people that everything will turn out okay if we just give it more time. Trump’s Miracles It is difficult to criticize a man who has produced so many political and geopolitical miracles. Admittedly, we have never believed in the economic kind, since Americans are much too deeply in debt to escape a Second Great Depression. When it comes, it will take down a global regime that has come to depend on America’ economic strength and, more recently, its leadership. The hope remains that Trump will put our domestic house
The chart shows the same hopeful, best-case scenario for Silver as the one presented in the Gold tout. The May contract tripped a theoretical buy signal on Friday when it touched the green line, and now it need only push above p=77.99 to tip the odds strongly back in bulls' favor. As is the case in gold, however, and as I have stated, this is not the most likely outcome, and the alternative would be further slippage to at least 56.32. That is the secondary Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting as low as 42.67 (60m, A=119.20 on Feb 29). ______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 11:03 a.m.): Further slippage overnight to 61.210 has altered the picture. The rally since has tripped a theoretical buy signal at 67.434 that will likely achieve 73.658, s midpoint resistance that could stop bulls in their tracks. However, if they blow past it, you can use 86.105 as a rally target. Also, a pullback to 67.434 from anywhere in the range 76.20-77.60 would trigger a 'mechanical buy at 67.43, stop 61.205. _______ UPDATE March 24, 10:51 p.m.): A gusher of promising news from the President tonight has pushed the futures past a minor 'd' target at 73.535 (60m, a=79.20 on 3/3), putting a bigger pattern in play with a new rally target at 85.90. A pullback first to 67.383 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 67.383, stop 61.210. Please note that the trade would carry nearly $31,000 of entry risk per contract, so it is therefore recommended only to those of you who are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers capable of reducing the risk by as much as 95%. They are covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course I've made available free to most subscribers.
The 6499.50 target I posted in the chat room Friday morning implied that a 100-point drop was coming. It did, almost. I also said the Hidden Pivot support would need to show some pluck to hold a full-blown bear market at bay, at least for a while. We didn't get the test we were looking for because the pattern proved too obvious and its target got front-run with ES 60 points above it; however, a test is coming nonetheless. Stay focused this week on my magic number, and don't accept anything less than a rally above C=6903.00 as minimal evidence the bull market is still breathing.
I've left plenty of room for another big leg down, but also for a test of a promising midpoint Hidden Pivot support slightly below, at 378.18. It cannot but reveal how much more selling remains to be done in a bear market that has already seen MSFT's value fall by 31% from the record 555 achieved last July. If the stock continues to fall to the 333.67 target, that would equate to a 40% drop from the top. There is an additional number worthy of our attention: 355.16. That is the 'D' target of a smaller pattern capable of producing a lasting bottom, and it should be used as a minimum downside projection for the near term.
