Who needs sophisticated analysis when the broad averages rise or go sideways 95% of the time, and when they never fall for more than three consecutive days? The chart assumes the E-Mini S&Ps will continue their ascent next week, possibly stopping for a short breather when they hit 7694.25, the 'D' target of the conventional pattern shown. The coordinates are probably too obvious to produce a precise top at that price, a Hidden Pivot, but I would still encourage you to try shorting there provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger to minimize entry risk. The goal is to make money even if the futures keep rallying, although that might entail being short only for a fraction of an hour. If we continue to short this gas-bag routinely at minor rally targets, one of these days we might actually find ourselves onboard for The Big One -- and what great fun that will be!
The chart makes clear not only that MSFT will achieve the 467.56 target shown, but also that it will form a tradeable top there. The target represents a slight adjustment made possible by the precise pullback from the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=432.79), and by the profitable buy signaled on the pullback to the green line. This means the pattern is working, and that the 'D' target at 467.56 will have tradeable consequence in both directions. A pullback to the secondary pivot (p2=432.79) could be bought with a 421.20 stop-loss, although a 'camo' trigger is suggested to shrink the implied risk of more than $11 per share.
Energy markets have grown bored with excitement, and that's why crude quotes are likely to fall even lower, despite the fact that the world's supply has been in a state of chaos for months. It would appear that traders have grown fatigued trying to discount Trump's daily hubris. The war may be over, at least on paper, by the time you read this. But whatever happens in the real world, look for July Crude prices to ease until the futures hit the 80.80 Hidden Pivot support shown. A tradeable bounce there is likely, and I would encourage you to take advantage of it if you know how to get aboard with a 'camo' trigger. Trickier still will be shorting the remaining $6 to the target, but it looks 75% likely to be achieved.
If you got long at or near the green line as I advised here last week, your theoretical, unrealized profit on the standard four contracts would be around $71,000 -- more than enough to pay for your subscription and a luxurious week in your favorite destination. Typically, I advise taking off half the position at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, shown here as a red line at 4636.80. At that point, you would have a realized gain of slightly more than $50,000; plus, two contracts left, each showing an unrealized gain of about $25,000, for swing at the fences. The 5144.00 rally target we've been using for months will remain valid unless the pattern's point 'c' low is violated first. But, yes, you're right: Who cares, as long as we can continue to exploit this tired pattern for all it's worth.
July Silver recently flashed the same buy signal as Comex Gold, but so far the result has been a thudding flop. Silver's failure to get off the launching pad suggests that gold's robust liftoff will not get very far. (Even so, a limited move could still produce a theoretical profit of $100,000 or more, based on a traded recommendation contained in last week's gold tout.) I'll be looking for silver to drag June Gold down after the latter has achieved a 4636 objective that lies about $70 above Friday's settlement price. The corresponding target in July Silver is 88.01, a big leap from here. The pressure on gold is not likely to ease up soon, since it is being caused by liquidations by countries strapped to pay for soaring energy costs.
The week finished with a strong kick, but it was probably a fake. That's because the A-B leg of the pattern in which the rally occurred wasn't even impulsive, at least not on the daily chart. Notice how the point B high failed to surpass the 142.40 peak recorded in March. I expect the rally to fail at the red line, a Hidden Pivot at 124.75, and the subsequent relapse to hit 97.03 before this resume its long-term bull market.
Rates pulled back so sharply from menacing heights last week that one suspects Trump's "team" was working its magic from the shadows. The president may not be able to control interest rates, but there is little doubt he can jostle them around for a little while when things start to get ugly. The week finished with a small bounce from slightly beneath a correction target at 4.43%. Although it's hard to tell whether this will prove to be the beginning of another scary run-up, a relapse exceeding Friday's low would portend more slippage to as low as 4.33%.
I'm taking a break from the daunting challenge of predicting the stock market's behavior each week as though it were correlated rationally and logically with events in the real world. My weekly commentaries will resume when I am feeling better up to the task. In the meantime, if you need a regular dose of Rick's Picks, don't pass up a free opportunity to use and enjoy all of the site's amenities, including the Trading Room, the heart and soul of my service. Its purpose is to help investors make money, a goal it achieves so consistently that gifted traders from around the world like to hang out there. The photo above shows Venezuela's Angel Falls, the world's highest waterfall and a good metaphor for my outlook on the stock market. Finally, here's a link to my latest rant at This Week in Money.
The thieves, hustlers and arse-bandits who manipulate global oil markets for a living are working 'news' of an imminent peace deal for all it's worth, pulling the July contract down as much as $6, or 6%, on this evening's opening bar. The news itself is the usual Trump blather about how 'close' a deal is, but with enough wiggle room to let the geopolitical world simply shrug it off when nothing happens. The markets have been all opportunism and zero fear lately, screaming higher when oil prices are steady-to-lower, but remaining flat or falling only slightly when oil prices are rising. I've offered a bet in the chart room via a 92.77 trigger for the July contract. The trade was recommended for Hidden Pivot aces only (aka 'Pivoteers'), since a 'camo' entry set-up is needed to avoid the $6,650 entry risk implied by a conventional stop loss at 86.13. The order would have filled easily on the opening bar and is presently somewhat in-the-red if executed conventionally. This is a one-level play, predicated on an exit at 99.41. However, any remaining contracts held for a swing at the fence should use a target of 112.29. That's substantially lower than the 120.62 target we used for the June contract, the difference being accounted for by respective B and C coordinates that are significantly lower. The smallest rABC camo trigger available can be found on the 3-minute chart at x=91.46, where a=91.36 at 18:12. Half would have been covered at 91.68, and 25% more at 92.10. Assuming four contracts were purchased initially, the cost basis for the single contract that remains would be 90.38. That is what I will use in order to provide tracking guidance. For now, use an 'impulsive' stop drawn from the 3-minute chart. At the moment (10:42 p.m.),
Last week's price action left the scribblings of Mr. P.O.S. Market at his most devious on the daily chart. The intraday high on Friday completed a corrective pattern that could easily be taken for a double top. But who would be crazy enough to go home short over a three-day weekend when stocks have been rising eight days out of ten? And yet. I told subscribers nonetheless to take a few puts home, just in case. The completed upward correction is not all that is tricky here. The low of the week appears to have touched the green line, signaling a potentially important sell signal for the psychotic run-up since March 31. But if you look at it with a magnifying glass, you discover that the low did not quite trigger a sell signal: for in fact, because the 7354.19 trigger price must be rounded down to 7354.00, the low actually missed touching it by 0.25 points, or a single tick. If I were in a gambling mood, I would have jumped the gun and shorted the crap out of Friday's high, especially since I'd predicted it. But if I am doing this strictly by-the-book, the short becomes more speculative, hence the recommendation to take home just a handful of puts. However, if the futures fall from the get-go on Sunday and continue down to the green line, I will do whatever it takes to establish a short position, even though it will be more difficult than if I'd placed my bet on Friday, when the rally looked far more menacing to shorts. Because there is such a long drop to the target at 6796, fear and greed will make it a, um, real bear to get short after this brick has begun to plummet. Stay tuned.
