When the white-shoed crime syndicate that controls this stock goosed it for a quick 30-point gain on May 1, they probably didn't expect to get as much additional mileage as the stock has delivered since. It now looks like a shoo-in to achieve thee 488.75 target shown. That as much as ensures that the bull market has a ways to run, since the Nasdaq is tethered to MSFT now that it has become a relative-strength engine once again. If the stock should relapse to p=416,.77, however unlikely, that would trigger a very enticing mechanical buy, stop 392.77.
Gold's bounce from a deep hole last Thursday did not quite live up to our expectations, so the outlook is bearish for the near term. More oomph would have pushed the June futures above an external peak at 3270.40 recorded on May 13, but the buying sputtered out well below, at 3208.70. The implication is that if the bounce from Friday's low hits the green line (x=3219.20) it would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 2355.90. The trade would be predicated on a target at 3109.40, a good place to bottom-fish aggressively if the opportunity should arise. _______ UPDATE (May 20, 9:20): When a picture-perfect trading opportunity like the short trade recommended above doesn't produce an easy profit, it's safe to conclude that the trend you've bet on is about to reverse. This one did, although not quite with a vengeance, only a sissy punch below the belt. The rally is bound for a minimum 3360.50, a Hidden Pivot that should show potentially tradable stopping power. If bulls can punch through it, expect a test of the 3448.20 high recorded on May 6.
Silver has been engulfed by tedium, almost too painful to watch. A breakdown below the sawtooth action of the last several weeks should be presumed headed to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 30.200. A tightly stopped buy there would be warranted if you feel like bottom-fishing, but it could take a while before the futures signal the trade. Neither bulls nor bears could be very happy at the moment, which is usually Mr Market's cue to deliver more of the same.
GDXJ looks vulnerable enough to fall all the way down to 53.31. The outcome may not turn out to be quite that bad, but your trading bias should be bearish for the time being. The silver lining is that if GDXJ should fall to the target, it would provide an unbeatable opportunity to bottom-fish with a tight stop-loss. This is a back-up-the-truck number, and so I will not make this tout publicly viewable. The last time I did this was in MSFT, which dropped $11 after getting within an inch of a 450.24 target that was 'blacked out.'
I've been gung-ho on Bitcoin for a while, but I'm unfurling the yellow flag this week because the recent lows, constituting a bottoming processes that took two months to complete, occurred beneath a downside target that should have contained the retracement to begin with. That set up a pattern which tripped a theoretical 'mechanical' short when Bitcoin hit the green line (x=96,055) two weeks ago. The trade would be unprofitable at the moment, but that is hardly a reassurance that this vehicle will surpass the pattern's point 'c' high at 109,358 to stop out the trade. Even if it does, I will be on my guard against a head-fake, so stay tuned for updates if you want to stay closely apprised. Please note that I have published rally targets as high as 144k. _______ UPDATE (May 20, 9:01 p.m.): Here’s a high-confidence target for this animal at 113,127. Your trading bias should be bullish until it’s reached, and you can get short there with a preternaturally tight stop-loss if you’ve made a few bucks on the way up.
Although the rally may already have begun to feel the magnetic pull of the old high, that is no assurance a new high will be achieved. It will first have to push past a Hidden Pivot resistance at 6128.25 that has the potential to stop the rally dead. The effect is likely to be precise if it occurs at all, so you won't have to ponder price action for more than an hour or two once the target is hit to figure out what might come next. The target is worth shorting provideddd you have the chops to pare entry risk down to 3.00 points or less per contract.
I’ve supported Trump since his first term, but my hopes for his success peaked a month ago when a panic-induced plunge in the S&P 500 reversed almost precisely from a 4820 target I’d sent out to subscribers. I saw this as the surprisingly quick end to a bear market that had only just begun in February. If my hunch turned out to be correct, this meant America would experience no recession, and the tariff wars would blow over without causing any lasting harm to the global economy. So far, the prediction — still an outlier, for sure — looks good, at least on paper. The chart shows how the S&Ps have rallied a Krakatoa-like 1089 points since trampolining in April from within a hair of 4820. The powerful move has somewhat muffled the clamor of TDS sufferers, even if it seems clear by now that nothing will ever bring them around. Meanwhile, dare we hope the radical changes that have set Trump’s agenda will extricate America from a debt trap with no apparent exit? A debt deflation has long seemed inevitable because public and private debts have grown far too large to repay. DOGE Gains Up in Smoke If Trump initially offered a possible way out and seemed enthusiastic about pulling off the impossible, he may have lost too much momentum already to succeed. The DOGE cuts that fired up so many supporters have been voted down by Congress, including by some Republicans, and it took quiet help from the Fed last week to bolster the appearance of strong demand for long-term Treasury paper. Now, if the Supreme Court fails to put the kibosh on birthright citizenship and nationwide injunctions by woke judges, Trump may need a hat-trick of successes in Ukraine, the Middle East and China to rally the
Talking heads, TV pundits and eggheads seem befuddled about where rates on the Ten-Year Note might be headed, but a chart with correctly drawn Hidden Pivot levels offers only clarity. The trend has been higher since May 1, with a rise from 4.12% to a high 4.40%, and although it seems likely rates will go somewhat higher, expect a downward break, perhaps a sharp one, from within the range 4.42%-4.58% [corrected]. The highs might seem scary for those who owe or need dollars, but a subsequent fall to as low as 3.902% should help quell their fears.
The futures did nothing last week to allay suspicions that the no-longer-exciting move off early April's low is just a garden-variety bear rally. Although it exceeded my 5736.00 target by five points, the fact that one needs a microscope to see this on the weekly chart means we should treat the resistance as intact. If buyers get decisively past it, I will be the first to guarantee 5867.00 as a minimum price objective. But we'll remain disciplined for now, and that means bulls must prove their case every step of the way. I may put out a trade in the chat room this week because this vehicle's minor swings are so easy to read. Stay close to the room if you're interested. The trade will likely happen too quickly for an email blast to be of much value, but if I see an opportunity developing lazily, I'll notify everyone.
MSFT wasted a week with its failure to achieve a modest 'conventional' Hidden Pivot target at 450.24. I didn't make the target viewable on this page, even by paying subscribers, because I didn't want to queer its voodoo magic. However, it still looks like a terrific place to attempt getting short with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger. If you don't know enough about them to fool around, I'll suggest buying a few puts or naked-shorting some near-the-money, soon-to-expire calls when the stock gets within 1.00 of the target. Tie the position to a tight stop-loss, since the trade is likely to work precisely if at all, and be sure to nail down a small partial profit if the opportunity arises. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 5:10 p.m..): The sleazeballs who control this fusion-powered 'wealth-generator' are milking the huge short-squeeze gap from May 1 for all it's worth. MSFT now looks like it will hit 477.45 before DaBoyz run into real resistance. Short there, too, with a stop-loss as tight as 0.20-0.40 cents. For your information, the short I'd recommended above from 450.24 could have produced a quick, juicy gain, since the stock fell to 439.78 on May 12 after topping at 450.59 the same day, just ahead of the regular-session opening.
