Bears dove for cover last week after a three-day short squeeze left them with the dim prospect of trying to obstruct a missile bound for new record highs. The 6907.50 target shown was a lock by Tuesday afternoon, when the futures not only punctured the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 6226.25, but closed slightly above it. The question now is how much stopping power the target will show. If little or none, we can expect the rally to continue to at least 6938.00, a target calculated by sliding the 'a' low five bars to the left, to 6540.25. Above it there is only one logical target left: 7499.75. It comes from a blended monthly chart (A=3502.00, on 10/31/22), and although it will be good enough for government work, we shouldn't expect it to show precise stopping power.
When a correction fails to reach its 'D' target as could occur here, it implies the dominant trend, a 16-year-old bull market, will continue. MSFT could still relapse to d=431.89, but we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for now with a rally projection to at least 526.24. That's the 'd' target of a pattern on the weekly chart begun on 9/5/25 from 492.37, and it will become an odds-on bet to be achieved when the stock pops though 495.57, a midpoint resistance that comes from the same pattern.
This is the first chart I've drawn that projects a gold price above $5000/oz. The pattern is probably too obvious to work precisely, but that won't negate its ability to keep us confidently on the right side of the trend. A theoretical buy signal has already been signaled with the thrusts through the green line (x=4234.40). However, we can't know how likely the 5126.10 target is to be achieved until we've seen buyers interacts with the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4529.79. For now, we can use it as a minimum upside projection. As always, a decisive move through p, and particularly a close above it, would shorten the odds of a continuation to D.
The 63.39 rally target is ambitious, considering we've yet to see how bulls handle the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 57.60. It became a logical minimum objective two weeks ago, when the futures first popped through the green line (x=51.70). The pattern is unusually elongated, but because of the rough visual symmetry between the two down-legs at either end, it winds up being the only ABCD configuration available on the weekly chart. Regardless of its quality, price action at p cannot but tell us whether bulls have the energy to power this vehicle to the target. Since the trend is so well-developed, however, jumping on and off will be difficult at best and should be managed using 'camo' (i.e., small-pattern) trade triggers in either direction.
There's little doubt that GDXJ will achieve a minimum 114.22 in this run-up (see inset). Although it struggled for a while to get past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 100.80, the ballistic breakout that ended the week should prove well-nigh unstoppable. However, because a 'd' target at 111.59 maxes out the monthly chart (a=96.72 on 2/26/10), we'll have to do the best we can with lesser charts and patterns if and when the ascent surpasses 114.22.
Like UFOs and Bigfoot, far more bear market sightings are imagined than real. I thought I'd spotted Papa Bear myself when Nvidia announced terrific earnings a couple of weeks ago, only to see their shares reverse and dive sharply after a deceptive spike higher. Was this the needle prick that burst the AI bubble? It certainly seemed so, for it was not merely plausible, but logical, given that Wall Street and the entire investment world were desperately counting on the world's only $5 trillion company to turn sagging markets around. They got their wish, but it was a delayed reaction that must have spooked many investors. Stocks plunged for several days after the announcement, before catching a bottom and reversing steeply. Your editor was one of the non-believers who were sure stocks had entered a bear market long overdue. It wasn't just Nvidia's performance, either. Trump's fortunes, if not to say his credibility, seemed to be on a downswing, in part because his nemesis Epstein was creeping back into the headlines. The President was uncharacteristically back on his heels, seemingly in synch with falling stocks. But within a few days, NVDA was basing, Trump was diverting the media toward a possible peace pact between Russia and Ukraine, and stocks were in a steep recovery. It was ferocious enough to seem like a classical bear rally, and that's what I assumed it was -- until, that is, in just three days, the broad averages were already within easy distance of new record highs. That was on Friday, and there's no point pretending the rally is a fake, destined to end with a whimper. Place Your Bets I continue to believe nevertheless that stocks are in a topping process. However, a bear market is unlikely to begin now, with bullish seasonality revved
A minor rally target posted in the chat room on Wednesday caught Friday's spike high within 0.04%, but there's more rally room to at least 94,155 once Bitcoin completes its pullback. The whipsaw reversal to the downside shaved nearly $3,000 from the peak price in under three hours, underscoring the nasty volatility that occurs in this vehicle between swing highs and lows that have been precisely predictable. For those who trade BTC over the weekend, look for a reversal from 89,980 to leverage. Be aware, however, that a decisive breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot support (15m, a= 92,804 on 11/28) could send Bitcoin down to at least 88,688 in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:30 p.m.): Bitcoin's slide through the 'hidden' supports given above implies more slippage to 86,884. If that Hidden Pivot gives way, the next support would be at 83,746, and thence 80,607. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 8:52 p.m.): The low of today's plunge came within 54 points, or six-hundredths of one percent, of the 83,746 target given above. The lowest number in the sequence, 80,607, remains valid as a minimum downside objective if BTC relapses, and a run-up to 90,023 would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 93,163.
The double top is so striking that a contrarian might have expected it to be exceeded to the upside eventually. That prospect looks at least somewhat less likely now that the stock has begun to recede from it. However, we should look for support at 444.08, about 28 points below, where the d target of a reverse pattern lies. It can also serve as a minimum objective for the next 4–7 days, and as a place to attempt bottom-fishing with a tightly constructed ABCD pattern of minute degree.
The 4001.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown perfectly caught the recent low, but if it gets decisively breached, that would open a path down to p2=3877.50, or even to D=3753.3. My bias is mildly bearish for the near term because the downtrend has been in force since before Halloween. Below 4001.70, the best chance bulls would have to turn things around would be at 3976.30, the d target of a smaller reverse pattern (or d=4011.30, basis February). Chances for an upturn there are good enough that I'll recommend bottom-fishing to subscribers who know how to craft a 'camouflage' trigger, a simple trick that I detailed in the chat room not long ago. (It also went out via email to everyone whose 'E-Mail Notifications' feature is checked in the account dashboard.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:35 p.m.): Assuming Feb Gold catches up to Jan Silver, the weekly chart (A=3234.00 on 5/16/25) implies more upside over the near term to at least 4529.70. A stall there would validate a pattern that projects to as high as 5126.10.
You could back up the truck and buy 'em at 46.16 the 'd' target of the pattern shown, although there are no assurances the futures will get there. Odds are somewhat in favor of it, since the pattern has already produced three theoretically profitable trades: a conventional short at the green line, a mechanical short on the rally back up to it, and a buy at 48.224, the secondary Hidden Pivot support. It would take a rally exceeding the 52.245 peak from November 19, for bulls kick-start the long-term uptrend. _____ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:15 p.m. EST): Silver has exploded this morning and is currently up $3.01/oz, trading well above a would-be daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 56.05 (basis the January contract). The next HP of consequence is 57.61, which can serve as a minimum price objective for now. If it is decisively exceeded, that would imply further potential to 63.50, or even 69.40. Both targets come from the weekly chart of the January contract, where A= 30.27 on 4/4/25.
