MSFT is in a messy, timid bull cycle that points to 547.12, about 6% above. I am tracking a long position from 506.06, since I'd suggested buying there 'mechanically' ahead of the pullback. (A separate long position from 493 that was initiated on my say-so is being tracked at GoldenMeadow.eu ) Further progress to 547.12 is hardly a done deal, as the stock has yet to decisively penetrate the midpoint resistance at 519.75. But bears look too tired to resist MSFT's inexorable upward drift, and so a move to the target must be regarded as likely. We may know more as the new week begins, since the E-Mini S&Ps ended the week with a moderate selloff from within a split hair of a rally target I'd drum-rolled at 6803.
Although Bitcoin flounces around like the ritalin-dosed kleine kinder who trade it, there are no instances we can recall when its hyperactive movement fooled or confused us. It is headed unavoidably to a record 132,743 at the moment, and do with that information what you may. The rally's decisive penetration of midpoint resistance at 119,996 offers all but ironclad assurance that the target will be reached. A tradable pause is equally likely at that price, since the pattern, although too obvious to depend on precisely, is good enough for government work. Don't pass up an opportunity to get long at 113,623 (stop 107,249) if BTC should swoon gratuitously.
I'm still in San Francisco, avoiding the withering heat of Florida's monsoon season. I am also taking a break from my regular commentaries, since writing about the greed and stupidity that have propped up the stock market and the economy for the last decade was growing boring and repetitive. Instead, I've featured paintings by friends, most recently Geoffrey Leckie and Deborah Oropallo. The photograph above was taken by Victor Riess, whom I met two decades ago in Colorado when he took my trading course. An avid bicyclist and musician, Victor is also the best photographer I know. He took the picture above near his home in Lancaster, PA. It is a wintry Pennsylvania scene that vividly recalls landscapes painted by the Dutch master Pieter Bruegel in the mid-1500s at the height of his powers. All of Victor's photos are for sale, including the picture of the Amish girl featured here last week. The work above, a signed, original print, is priced at $32,000. It is approximately 20" x 30". For further details, email me at Rick's Picks.
The futures have behaved well, meaning predictably and profitably, within the pattern shown, so far producing a short precisely from p2, and on Thursday a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=6659.00). There are no guarantees bulls will achieve D=6803.34, since price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=6707.17) has been a knock-down, drag-out battle. But since every rally for the last 16 years has equaled or surpassed its target, there is no reason to think this one will go unachieved. A final note: There are two textbook trades left in the pattern -- long to d; and, if you've made money on the ride up, short at D. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 1:34 p.m.): The pullback from exactly 6800.00 seems too coy to last, but we should still respect the possibility of an important top there, since it fell just a split-hair shy of a compelling Hidden Pivot target that took four months to reach. If, as is more likely, bulls get second wind and continue higher, 6874.25 would be the next logical stop on the way to, like, Mars. If you got short as suggested above, an rABC pattern extrapolated from the hourly chart (a=6787.50) would have triggered at 6794.75 and taken you out of half with a quick profit at 6779.00. The next, potentially buyable, Hidden Pivot support for this correction comes in at 6736.50.
The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Assuming today's top at 48.325 endures for a day or two, try bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid at 47.175, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot support. An easy breach would portend more slippage to as low as 46.025. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:08 p.m. EDT): The pullback got no lower than 47.685 before silver took off again. The closest Hidden Pivot 'D target you can use for a minimum objective for the next couple of days is 49.835.
A 15% rally to the 111.59 target shown is likely. I've used a reverse pattern (rABC) taken from the monthly chart to project the extent of the move, which should unfold over the remaining months of 2025 and perhaps into early 2026. The point 'a low is an acceptable choice because this vehicle, a proxy for mining exploration companies, was introduced by Van Eck at the end of 2009. Notice that the first-time buyers encountered the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=64.23) along the c-d leg, they stalled almost precisely there before correcting for a little more than two years. The eventual penetration of p, although hardly explosive, was decisive enough to make a follow-through to 'd' a good bet. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Use this pattern to trade GDXJ in the days ahead. p=98.03 is a logical place to attempt bottom-fishing with very tight risk control, but any slippage beneath it would imply more weakness to p2=96.61, at least, or even D=95.20. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:25 p.m.): Buyers have pulled back slightly so far after stalling 13 cents above a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 103.92 (60-min, a=95.60 on 9/18). Once they clear this obstacle, there is still room on the hourly chart for further progress this week to 104.25, and thence 106.84. As always, an easy move through a Hidden Pivot target should be regarded as a sign the next is likely to be achieved.
Bulls didn't exactly impale the 3668.10 midpoint pivot, but they have surpassed it with such graceful ease that there should be little doubt that the 4128.10 target shown in the chart will be achieved. A punitive pullback to the green line (x=3428.00), however unlikely, would enable a superb bottom-fishing opportunity. Still another may develop at the red line after the futures have touched the secondary Hidden Pivot at 3898.10. Above 4128 sits just one more target that can be extrapolated from the long-term chart: 5020.20. The significance of this number will grow if we see a stall at 4071.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance to which it is related. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): December Gold ascended to within less than $1 of the 3898.10 target flagged above as the week began, but the correction to 3820 was over quickly and reversed with a probing rally that has yet to top 3923. None of this has changed the very bullish outlook detailed above. Most immediately, expect a stab to 3967.90, a minor Hidden Pivot resistance that can be used as a minimum upside projection as the new week begins. We'll also want to pay particular attention if and when 4071.80 is reached, for reasons noted above.
The thieves who manipulate this behemoth for a living partied hard in the final moments of Friday's session, goosing MSFT $7 just ahead of the bell. Usually it is in the opening minutes of the day that we see them diligently at work, stealing hubcaps in full view of SEC regulators. Wall Street loves these guys, since they have been responsible for creating untold trillions of dollars' worth of vaporous 'wealth' since the bull market began in 2009. Friday's criminally inspired spike was relatively modest, worth approximately $7 billion to portfolios that hold Microsoft shares. The irony is that the sleazeballs who purport to control this stock, among others, are themselves the unwitting slaves of mysterious technical forces they will never completely understand. The chart shows exactly how this works, with Hidden Pivot levels that can be used to gain a profitable edge over the riff-raff and algos. They already enabled us to get long just a hair off the September 5 low at 492.37. More recently, the stall at 519.75, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, could have been shorted on Friday, but for the fact that it occurred on a vicious upthrust with just a few minutes remaining in the session. But there are still several potential trades that can be milked from the pattern, including a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line, and two potential shorts in places that Rick's Picks subscribers will recognize. Trading should be fun -- and what could be more fun than going up against machines incapable of distinguishing a chickpea from a garbanzo. (The difference, says comedian Will Durst, is that a guy would never pay $200 to have a garbanzo sit on his chest.) ________ UPDATE (Sep 27): If you followed my guidance (see above), you should be long
The Endless Bull Market still has a ways to go, although a key component of it, the E-Mini S&P 500, is coming up on an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 6803.75 that lies just 1.2% above. Trump's ability to transform an economy fatally swollen with debt into a beautiful vista is vastly overrated, as is the promise of AI, and that's why we should be on our guard for the onset of a bear market that is long overdue. Most immediately, that means paying close attention to price action at 6740.25, the midpoint between D and p2=6676.56. Trends within patterns as obvious as the one shown often fall short of expectations, and the midpoint between levels is where to expect such failures to occur. We'll treat this one as we would a conventional midpoint (p) Hidden Pivot, meaning the futures would become a strong bet to achieve 'D' if they blow past 6740.25. The D target is shortable but bound to get front-run because of the pattern's obviousness, so don't look for a precise turn from within a point or less of where we should want it to occur. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:07 p.m. EDT): Just a slight downward adjustment: I now see the futures achieving a minimum 6801.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 1:13 p.m. EDT): The futures have come down unusually hard after stalling precisely at the 6758.50 secondary pivot associated with the 6801 target identified above. They triggered a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal at 6661.50 this morning, but a subsequent low flirted with the 6612.75 stop-loss, casting the bullish outlook into doubt. On the other hand, all previous bets that the bull market is at an end have lost, so we are obliged to give the bull the benefit of the doubt for now. We'll stay close to
This ETF proxy for the Long Bond has generated its first impulse leg since August with a pop above two prior peaks on the weekly chart. The move is not nearly as strong, and it is no reason to break out the bubbly, but it implies the rally cycle begun from 83.30 in May will achieve a minimum 92.91. That is an important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a big-picture rally target at 102.52. The target comes from a pattern on the weekly chart begun from 82.42 in October 2023. As always, a decisive penetration of 'p' on first contact would shorten the odds of a continuation to as high as 'D' , but to least p2 (97.82 in this case). ________ UPDATE (Sep 25): The correction should come down to at least 88.08 before TLT turns around, but if it doesn't, I'll need to ratchet down my mild bullishness a smidgen.
