Rick Ackerman

This chart, with an 8107.25 target, has the virtue of simplicity: it follows all my rules, and that is reason to expect it to work. I've mentioned a couple of lesser targets based on somewhat different coordinates, but, as the song reminds us, it's never good to mess around with mister in-between.  The main subjective concern is whether last week's move past the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=7230,25) was sufficiently effortless to ensure the target, a 23% jump from here, will be reached. Because buyers did not exactly impale the resistance, I cannot guarantee that this will happen. But I am about 75% certain of it, and 95% sure that p2=7668.75 will be achieved.  In the meantime, although a relapse to the green line (x=6791.75) would be read by many technicians as the possible start of a bear market, it would signal a stellar buying opportunity from a Hidden Pivot standpoint. I will mention one other number that could be consequential: 7499.75, the 'D' target of a conventional pattern. But because it comes from a composite monthly chart, we shouldn't expect it to work quite  as precisely as a Hidden Pivot resistance on a chart where all four coordinates are tied to the June contract.

A bigger picture stretching back a year projects as high as 666.84, but we'll stick with a smaller pattern for now that offers better form and clarity. It has signaled a move over the near term to as high as 464.66, but this has yet to be affirmed by a move through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=431.34).  That number can serve as a minimum upside projection for the week ahead, as well as a tool for positioning a 'mechanical' buy if the opportunity should present itself. As always, a decisive push past p would shorten the odds of achieving D.

The two-month-long ascent of rates on the Ten-Year Note did an apparent death rattle last week with a run-up to 4.46%. That fell slightly shy of the 4.48% peak recorded at the end of March. I still think the peak will endure, at least for the foreseeable future. This outlook remains to be confirmed, however, by a downtrend that generates an impulse leg on the daily chart. At the moment, that would imply a decline touching 4.22%. I should note that someone who thinks rates will fall is considered bearish on rates. Because this can be confusing, we tend to say that the person is bullish on bonds, since bond prices rise as rates fall.

The 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=4636.30) went in the black last week with a pop to 4775 on Thursday. That would equate to a theoretical gain of around $14,000 per contract, but there is an additional $36,000 of profit potential if the futures reach the 5144.00 target. Price action at p has been wishy-washy, but that is no reason to presume that the uptrend will not reach p2=4890 at least. When it does, you should take off half of the position you hold, either in this vehicle or in an equivalent such as GLD.

With strong back-to-back rallies on Wednesday and Thursday, the futures made significant progress last week toward the 93.995 target shown. Although we were able to get long in Gold using a similar pattern, July Silver's recent dip did not quite reach the green line (x=69.744) to signal a 'mechanical' buy. It left the station without us, but that only shortened the odds of a move-to-target. A relapse to the green line (x=4382.40), however unlikely, can be used to get long using a 4128.00 stop-loss.

I'm taking a break from the daunting challenge of predicting the stock market's behavior each week as though it were correlated rationally and logically with events in the real world. My weekly commentaries will resume when I am feeling better up to the task.  In the meantime, if you need a regular dose of Rick's Picks, don't pass up a free opportunity to use and enjoy all of the site's amenities, including the Trading Room, the heart and soul of my service. Its purpose is to help investors make money, a goal it achieves so consistently that gifted traders from around the world like to hang out there. The photo above shows Venezuela's Angel Falls, the world's highest waterfall and a good metaphor for my outlook on the stock market.  Finally, here's a link to my latest rant at This Week in Money. If you've been waiting for the black swan to arrive, it could be right under your nose.

Last week's impalement of the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 103.58, is bad news for the geopolitical and economic world, since it implies June Crude will reach a minimum 128.19. Although the feeble point 'A' leaves a lot to be desired as a starting point for the pattern, it will do in a pinch.  A pullback to the green line (91.28) would undoubtedly be read as relief, but this chart says it would be an opportunity to buy aggressively for a blast to new highs.  A 'camo' trigger should be used to cut the approximately $12k entry risk by at least 95%. The tactic is detailed in a course I've made available free to subscribers.

Rates on the Ten-Year Note climbed to within inches of the 4.48% high recorded on March 27, but there is reason to doubt they are about to break out.  Specifically, the pullback from the high breached a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 4.35%, implying more slippage to at least 4.28% is no worse than an even bet.  Using the futures contract, traders can get short at 4.39% (interpolated) with a stop-loss at 4.44%.

A measly 3% rally would reach the 7499.75 target shown. This is a composite chart, so we shouldn't expect to see precise stopping power, but it should be close enough for government work.  There are two other Hidden Pivot resistances to hold in mind if the futures keep going: 7644 and 10,336. That last number is the highest I can project on the monthly chart, and it is intended to stretch your imagination, especially if you are a permabear.  Because penetration of p=6166.00 was effortless and decisive, it's all but certain the lower target will be achieved. Since this is the bull market that won't die, don't assume the target will mark an important top unless it coincides with Iran's complete surrender.