I am treating Friday's low at 80.56 as potentially important, since the pattern from which it is derived took more than three months to play out. Only two coordinates are shown for proprietary reasons, but the other two are easy enough to identify if you care. Notice that the low missed the actual target by 85 cents. I suspect this was due to front-running, which if true would mean the clowns and algos have gotten better at playing our game. That's okay, though, since we can keep a step ahead of them simply by using reverse-pattern triggers as detailed in the Hidden Pivot Course. Most immediately, expect more upside to at least 89.04, a minor 'd' target. If it is easily exceeded, especially on first contact, that would suggest the recent low is likely to hold for a while and that quotes are headed back toward $100/barrel or higher.
The 7230.25 midpoint resistance shown is my minimum upside objective for the near term. It will pose a crucial test for bulls, since a decisive penetration, especially on first contact, would imply that the rally is likely to continue. The immediate objective thereupon would be p2=7668.75, but as always, a swift move through it would clear a path to as high as 8107.25, the D target. The 7230.25 pivot is a must-short, provided you're adept at using 'camo' triggers to curtail entry risk. The technique is described in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available for free to all old subscribers and to new ones who have signed up for a full year.
Try as they might, the slimeballs charged with goosing this cinder block whenever it needs a cash-free boost have succeeded only in recouping about a third of bear-market losses sustained since last autumn's top near 550. To be sure, the rigged, gap-up openings that accounted for nearly all of last week's 60-point (15%) gain generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart, and it must be respected. But we'll make bulls earn our trust every step of the way, and that means with a leap either Monday or Tuesday that surpasses the gap resistance at 442.50 created in January on the way down. I will continue to track the stock closely, since, despite its ugly slide over the last six months, the company remains the most reliable bellwether for gauging the health of the stock market.
Although the 5144.00 rally target shown remains a secure minimum upside objective, waiting for it to be achieved has been agonizing. That's because, as we know, gold's institutional sponsors could wipe out ten weeks' worth of ratcheting, tedious gains with just one of those sleazy hit-jobs to which we'd grown accustomed during the bull market's incipient stage. If the swoon comes next week, I would not recommend bottom-fishing with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, since the trade has an elevated probability of getting stopped out. This opportunity, if it comes, will be via a 'green-line' buy only, assuming the futures get socked with a bout of weakness by those most intent on adding to their hoard at fire-sale prices. That's how the game works.
Silver has made better headway than Gold toward the nearest important rally objective, in this case 93.850. However, the move has still been a drain on our patience and more than a little stressful since, like gold, the futures will always be subject to one of those nasty downdrafts that inflicts all bull markets during lengthy consolidations. The mildly good news from last week is that buyers popped this vehicle through an 'external' peak at 82.760 recorded in mid-March on the way down. The move was impulsive and implies that the next leg higher will achieve the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 85.690.
You can hardly blame Trump for playing up the stock market's spectacular performance whenever anyone challenges the way he is conducting the war, or claims the jihadists are winning. Even in the editorial rooms of the New York Times and Bloomberg, where a virulent strain of Trump Derangement Syndrome still lingers, news editors are finding their caustic opinions overwhelmed by the bullish tide -- make that, tsunami -- on Wall Street. Although details of a cease-fire have yet to be worked out, never mind the terms of a peace agreement, stocks have exploded into their steepest rally ever, recouping five months' worth of steady losses in just 17 days, while racking up gains during that period equal to the amazing, six-month bull run-up of 2025. Can tens of millions of investors be wrong? Or is genuine peace about to break out, as Trump would put it, like nothing the world has ever seen before? To answer that question, harken back to an iconic graffito from the 1970s: "Eat Shit! Can a hundred trillion flies be wrong?" If you fail to see the connection, let me spell it out: A superheated stock market is the last place everyone should look for evidence that all is right with the world. Moreover, Trump's eagerness to direct our attention that way makes it even more foolhardy. Bipolarity's Sweet Spot Why? Because the stock market is a rabid beast whose mood swings have always ranged between reckless exuberance and suicidal despair. Within the broad middle of this bipolarity, it acts like a giant carnival midway, hyped by barkers who use 'research' to support extremes of overvaluation that currently make the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s look like a shingles-and-siding hustle. Moreover, the rally's aberrant strength suggests it is driven mainly by a short-covering panic
I won't go into the somewhat subjective reasons, but the inset chart is unconvincing regarding whether crude is headed significantly higher, possibly reaching the 134.08 target shown. I had assumed this was possible, but my job is to determine whether it is likely. To better judge the odds, I'm going to use a downtrending, conventional ABC that begins with the 117.63 peak recorded last Tuesday. It projects a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 89.41 and a D target at 76.12. Since these Hidden Pivots align closely with the green and red lines in the chart, we'll use them alongside the specific numbers provided in this tout to get an accurate read on trend strength, both dominant and corrective. The futures have already signaled a drop to p=89.41, but a decisive overshoot would lend a little weight to the not-crazy-bullish case. If they continue to fall, exceeding D=76.12, that will significantly diminish the chance we'll see new highs above 117.63. For the record, a fall to the green line (x=90.25) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, with a stop at 75.63. I am recommending the trade only to ace Pivoteers, however.
The futures were unable to summon the energy on Friday to screw even the proverbial pooch, although I still suggested trading, or at least monitoring, a bullish 'mechanical' possibility that is detailed in the chat room. It would attempt to leverage a 6975.00 rally target derived from a conventional ABCD pattern that is made more explicit in a version of the chart linked in my post. I have stripped the one accompanying this tout of visual qualifiers because of my growing fear that AI can be used to rip off my system. The rally target is associated with a pattern smaller than the one yielding a 7030.75 target drum-rolled here earlier. It will remain valid regardless of what happens to the Hidden Pivot at 6975.00, which you can short if you have profited on the way up.
The bearish outcome shown in the chart goes a step further than can be confidently predicted, but it is supported by the pattern itself. Make no mistake, a further fall to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with excellent odds of success, but only of a limited kind. That implies that a bid there, stop 356.57, is likely to reverse back up to the red line, the 372.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot. Some shares could still be held above it for a play to d=387.92, but I'd suggest taking profits on at least half the position at p. The nearly 8-point stop-loss on entry should be pared down with a camo trigger.
Rates on the Ten Year have receded from a high-water mark two weeks ago of 4.48%, a threshold that came close to throttling mortgage activity with a move above 7%, as well as all other forms of debt financing. It's difficult to predict at the moment how much more relief borrowers will get, but T-Notes seem likely to fall to at least 4.18% from a current 4.32%. If they touch that Hidden Pivot, any bounce would presumably be merely corrective, since it would follow the creation of a bearish impulse leg via a penetration of March 17's important, 41.89 low. ______ UPDATE (April 18): No change, since the analysis and forecast above remain on-target.
