Switching from the November contract to the December yields a somewhat higher target at 3751.20. Like the earlier target at 3719.70, this one looks likely to be reached. However, the odds of an overshoot have improved by a tad. That's because the futures spent a whole week consolidating just beneath the 'D' target, which would be a lot of work just to produce a marginal pop to a new high a mere $36 above the previous one. Regardless, we'll be ready to get short there cautiously, since the pattern is compelling, even if too obvious to predict a top precisely.
I'm in San Francisco, taking a break from Florida's insufferable summer heat, but also from my weekly commentaries. Writing regularly about the impending collapse of the stock market, Wall Street hubris and the fatally diseased economy had grown boring and depressing, and so, at least for the time being, I will be substituting more entertaining fare. Recently, I've featured paintings by my college roommate, Geoffrey Leckie. This week, I offer the works of another friend, Deborah Oropallo. In the forty or so years I've known Deborah, she has broken new artistic ground with each new evolution of her style and subject; then, she moved on when imitators glutted the market she'd created. Deborah has achieved commercial success and fame, including a show at the Whitney Museum. However, my favorite exhibit of her works was mounted by the DeYoung Museum in San Francisco. It was called 'Guise,' and the sly overlay above is an arresting example of the theme. If you want to know more about the artist, click here.
I'm in San Francisco, taking a break from Florida's insufferable summer heat, but also from my weekly commentaries. Writing regularly about the impending collapse of the stock market, Wall Street hubris and the fatally diseased economy had grown depressing, and so, at least for the time being, I will be substituting more upbeat fare. Recently, I've featured paintings by my college roommate, Geoff Leckie. This week, I offer the works of another friend, Deborah Oropallo. In the forty or so years I've known Deborah, she has broken new artistic ground with each new evolution of her style and subject matter; then, she moved on when imitators glutted the market. Deborah has achieved fame and commercial success, including a show at the Whitney Musuem. However, my favorite exhibit of her works was mounted by the DeYoung Museum in San Francisco. It was called 'Guise,' and the sly overlay above is a fine example of her theme. If you want to know more about the artist, click here.
GDXJ has shredded its way past all lesser targets, leaving just one more, major, Hidden Pivot resistance at 93.89 that comes from the weekly chart and beckons a test. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the midpoint resistance at 78.90, the target is all but certain to be reached. It is nearly as likely to produce a precise reaction, meaning you should consider covered writes if you hold a long-term position. I advised doing so at a lesser target not far below, but there was relatively little resistance. This time it is likely to be different, but if GDXJ melts through the resistance anyway, I'll need to rummage through my bag of technical tricks to come up with a new target, since the one at 93.89 is the highest I can produce with conventional tools. In most cases, this entails extrapolating an 'extension' target from the intraday charts. This tactic will yield Hidden Pivots that should be expected to show shortable stopping power, but it is not a reliable means for predicting a major top.
Earlier, I used a continuous chart to project a potentially important top at 53.06. But because silver is flirting with possibly rally-stopping resistance $10 below that, I've used the December contract to produce a more precise target. It shows the futures to have slightly exceeded a target tied to a point 'A' low recorded in October 2023. However, there is a still higher target, unachieved, at 43.282 that comes from a lower 'A' at 21.992 notched seven months earlier. This is shown in the chart. I have used it to produce a bull market target at 43.282 that maxes out possibilities on the daily chart, although not the monthly. That is why we should pay close attention when the December contract hits 43.282, which it will. I expect a tradable stall there, although probably not a fatal one, because there will still be an outstanding target at 53.06.
Bitcoin's bounce two weeks ago from within a hair of a correction target at 107,064 has gotten legs and now promises more upside over the near term to as high as 119,160. Bulls have all but clinched a move to at least 116,183, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot resistance (p2) of the pattern shown. However, a follow-through to D=119,160 is not a done deal yet and would be predicated on a decisive penetration of 116,183 on first contact. Meanwhile, a relapse to 110,272 (x, the green line) can be bought with a 107,249 stop-loss. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:01 p.m. EDT): Bulls have popped this gas-bag to 116,365 this morning. That's 0.15 percent higher than my minimum target, but not quite enough to guarantee that D=119,160 will be achieved. I expect this to happen, but the yellow flag is out anyway just to be extra cautious.
Bloomberg and other news sources that despise Trump and wish him ill have been asking with increasing fervor whether a recession is taking hold in the U.S. Of course it is, as any middle-class American could have told you. But in this chart, we have a corroborating detail: long-term rates are headed lower, presumably because of a weakening economy. The two stalls since early July at the red line had seemed to imply that T-Bond futures were trapped in a bearish pattern that might at best produce sideways movement for the foreseeable future. However, this week's powerful blast through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 87.88 suggests that T-bond prices will continue to rise at least until D=92.45 is reached. A corresponding drop in long-term rates would yield 4.49%, down significantly from the current 4.68%. This is a high-confidence call, although there is a possibility the decline in rates will stall or reverse at 4.66%, just a hair below.
Microsoft could go either way, but we should be able to gauge its mood by paying close attention to the two levels shown in the chart. If the stock moves higher, it would trigger a minor buy signal at 506.6, which could be a good opportunity for a ride to 519.75, or even to 547.12 if the trend catches fire. Alternatively, a decisive breach of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 493.67 would signal an imminent fall to at least 462.78, or possibly even 431.89 if any lower. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:20 p.m. EDT): The stock finally got off the fence today with a cattle-prod assist from its clever handlers. It popped above 506.06, tripping a buy signal to at least 519.75, but possibly as high as 547.12. This is equivalent to Punxsutawney Phil failing to see his shadow, since it will extend Springtime on Wall Street (cue up the Mel Brooks number) for yet another few weeks, or perhaps months. Please note, however, that the rally would fall a tad shy of the old high. For those of you who are keeping track, DaBoyz effortlessly added about $88.6 billion of fraudulent 'wealth effect' to the global ledger with this morning's gap-up, short-squeeze opening.
We should soon know the intentions of Bitcoin's intrepid handlers, since the corrective move off the August 11 high at 124,533 has stalled exactly at the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown. This was a good place to have attempted tightly stopped bottom-fishing, even if we cannot yet predict with high confidence whether the bounce will mark the end of short-term weakness, or instead just a pause on the way down. However, if BTC breaks decisively lower, that would shorten the odds of more downside to p2=98,330, the secondary pivot; or even to D=89,595 if any lower. The pattern could also mutate into a juicy 'mechanical' shorting opportunity with a dip beneath 'p' (the red line) followed by a rally back up to 115,798, the green line.
Following a sharp run-up to new record highs earlier in the week, October Gold has begun a retracement that looks likely to continue down to at least 3522.40 [corrected], the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown; or to as low as 3433.90 if any lower. The pivot is a logical spot to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop loss. Specifically, you should use a reverse-pattern trigger interval (TI) of 3.0 points or less on the 15-minute chart if the futures fall into the range 3521.20=3522.50. If you are unfamiliar with this tactic, you should use your own method of risk management to limit entry exposure to no more than $150 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 4:04 p.m. EDT): The futures dipped no lower than 3544 before taking off again like a bat out of hell. This left our niggardly bid choking on dust, but not without heightening our awareness that getting aboard to augment long positions will require more aggressive bidding. In the meantime, you should use 3719.70 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A pullback to 3448.90, however unlikely, can be bought 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 3358.60.
