AAPL is a major contributor to the doomed 'wealth effect' that has kept the world from falling into a deflationary abyss since the covid hoax. Friday's wilding spree was a classic example, since the stock's gap-up opening generated around $70 billion of gaseous 'wealth' the instant the regular session began. It seems ridiculous with the U.S. facing a real estate collapse later this year or early next, but the chart of the world's most valuable stock has been pointing to at least 177.11 since early March. AAPL was trading 30 points lower at the time, a fire-sale bargain as far as the Big Boys were concerned. Its relentless rise since, along with that of Chipotle, implies that a bear market is not coming any time soon. Moreover, Chipotle's rally target at 2739, 700 points above where it is currently trading, suggests it and AAPL will continue to tag-team higher after the latter finishes consolidating for its impending thrust to 177.11. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 11:36 a.m.): I just now realized that if a very subtle one-off A is used to project a top for AAPL, today's high at 176.39 came within 13 cents of fulfilling it. The 177.11 target we've been using all along represented a theoretical maximum for the move, but the stock could still fall 72 cents shy of it if it fulfills the one-off target at 176.52. I prefer to get it very exactly right on option trades, but it would be a shame to miss out on putties for want of another 72 cents of upside on a move that has taken months to play out. Here's the chart, but I will take a look at put prices and see if there is something appealing that I can recommend. (Check the chat room for my recommendation).
The chart shown, with a downside target at 56.90, is one of the few I've presented here that actually might not be good enough for government work. The A-B impulse leg is one that only a mother could love, since its 'B' bottom surpassed no distinctive prior low. On the other hand, no fewer than three kamikaze dives have reversed almost precisely from p and p2 Hidden Pivots. Regardless, the theme I have sounded here for nearly a month -- that the Saudi cutbacks amounted to a toothless threat -- has helped keep us on the right side of a downtrend that evidently knows a global recession when it sees one.
Yes, it's a bull market, but not one that has been much fun. My current rally target is 2138.30, just 134 points above Friday's settlement price. Riding this bee-stung Brahma became particularly unpleasant last week when a vicious spike up to 2085 on Wednesday reversed precipitously to finish the week just slightly above where it began. For the record, the dive on Friday triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=2020.30), stop 1980. The usual caveats apply. ______ UPDATE (May 12): The 'mechanical' trade was worth as much as $3,600 per contract, although it generated little buzz in the chat room. The 2138,30 rally target remains viable.
Silver loves to tease traders by tiptoeing up to old highs and lows, then reversing with sadistic brutality. You'd think the victims would have caught on by now, but if and when they do, the gremlins that animate this vehicle will have moved on to a different, equally nasty game. For all its histrionics, the ABCD pattern that has informed our bullishness for the last two weeks remained intact along with its 27.150 rally target. The futures already tripped a profitable 'mechanical' buy on a pullback a week ago to the green line, and it would trip another if it takes out Friday's low at the beginning of the week. That would amount to sloppy seconds, though, and so I will offer no guarantees.
Friday's irrational exuberance was possible because there was no structural resistance between 4112 and 4161 (see chart inset). DaBoyz pushed DaFutures to within an inch of the higher number equal to the day-earlier peak, but they lacked the guts and conviction to get past it. Evidently unknown to them is that a follow-through to at least D=4199.75 is all but certain, barring a collision between Earth and an asteroid over the weekend. A pullback to the red line (4131.00), a trade I don't often recommend, would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 4108.00. _____ UPDATE (May 10, 10:43 p.m.): A day of crazy price action generated many profitable trades that were reported in the chat room. The big, bullish picture is unchanged.
GDXJ triggered a 'mechanical' buy last week that got nowhere near the bids I'd suggested. Actually, the swoon didn't even trip a 'conventional' buy, since the week's low missed touching the red line by six cents (see chart inset). We may have to take what we can get if we're going to be on board for the finishing stroke to the 45.56 Hidden Pivot target shown. I didn't mention it here explicitly last week (although it was shown in the chart), but it has been our lodestone since mid-March and never in doubt.
TLT has been biding its time since last December, trapped in a tedious range until it's ready to break out for a shot at the 115.32 target shown. Last week's dip to the green line triggered the first 'mechanical' buy signal we've seen on the daily chart this year. It would take a feint to the downside exceeding C=98.88 to stop out the trade. My hunch is that the next time buyers revisit the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, they will mean business.
I've drawn a moderately bullish pattern with a 4261.25 rally target that lies 75 points above Friday's close. I'll recommend extra caution if shorting there because the target was sired by three possible 'fathers' -- i.e., the three closely spaced lows at the start of the move. If the futures blow past D, that would warrant sliding 'A' down to October's bottom and shifting 'B' one peak to the left. The resulting target is 4453.25, the most bullish number I'm comfortable billboarding at the moment. Here's the chart. Pivoteers might be interested to know that my justification for the larger pattern hinges on the subtlety of the 'B' high having slightly surpassed the circled 'external' peak. That makes A-B legitimately impulsive, and therefore capable in theory of hurling the futures as high as 4453.25. ______ UPDATE (May 4, 5:40 p.m.): A downtrend turned tortuous looks bound for this 4026.50 target. Let's see if sellers have enough gumption left after today's messy tussle to get there.
AAPL should be able to reach the 177.11 rally target easily, although that would imply a dearth of opportunities to get long 'mechanically' on a swoon. This is one instance where a 'mechanical' buy at the 160.51 red line (i.e., the midpoint Hidden Pivot) would be justified. Your bid there should be stopped at 154.87, yielding a risk/reward of 1:3 on entry that is predicated on exiting a long position at the 177.111 target. In this week's commentary, I have shifted my focus to Chipotle (CMG) as a stock market bellwether. AAPL still holds primacy for this purpose, but Chipotle recently signaled the very strong likelihood of a further, 35% move to as high as 2739. If so, the patience of permabears is likely to be tested beyond all endurance. Their capitulation would correspond to a blowoff top. It would appear that the Second Great Depression that is coming with the next bear market is about to be postponed yet again. That would be a small miracle, considering that an epic collapse in residential and commercial real estate is baked in the cake for 2024.
I seldom display charts that contain two technical indicators, but in this case I wanted you to see the whole picture, which projects a likely drop to D=1943.50. The June contract has been pounding on the lower support of a channel for two weeks, but when it finally gives way, expect it to head down to D, a middling Hidden Pivot support. The pattern is gnarly enough that it should allow for bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss (or preferably a minor 'reverse pattern' trigger). Please note that the futures have been on a 'mechanical' sell signal since rallying to the green line a week ago. ______ UPDATE (May 2, 6:20): Gold continued its wacky, daily swings with an explosive rally that exceeded the point 'C' high of the bearish pattern targeted on 1943.50 (see above.) Now. if buyers impale p=2029.70, look for more upside to D=2078.40 over the near term. ______ UPDATE (May 3, 6:18 p.m.): The futures got even wackier after the close, spiking nearly $50 to a so-far top at 2085 that lay 0.3% above my 2078.40 target. A wrenching $30 swoon [Update 5/4 at 8:36 a.m.: The swoon is currently $47] has followed, but hysterical buyers are probably still out there in droves. If they lift the lid anew, the futures could be bound for a more durable peak at 2183.30. A vicious pullback in the meantime to 2020.00 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 19https://bit.ly/3ND4uvY80.00 (A=1906 on 3-15). Here's a fresh chart.
