Rick Ackerman

It is concerning that, before it fell apart, March Silver did not quite reach our longstanding target at 24.95, nor one at 25.06 that would have completed the somewhat larger pattern shown (inset).  Even so, the futures would be an enticing 'mechanical' buy nonetheless at x=21.85, stop 20.89, for a one-level ride, at least. The implied entry risk on four contracts would be a little more than $21,000, so this trade should be attempted only with a 'camo' trigger capable of bringing that down to perhaps $1,200 or less. _____ UPDATE (Feb 10);  The futures bottomed on Friday two pennies below 21.85, the number flagged above. Although they subsequently rallied 37 cents, there was no indication that anyone did the trade, let alone took the partial profit that was possible before the trend reversed. No further recommendations for now.

Last week's hellish dive has brought GDXJ within easy distance of the green line (x=36.30) where I'd suggested bottom-fishing. Like many of the best 'mechanical' trades, this one should have you feeling queasy in the wake of such a determined selloff.  This pattern implies it will be short-lived, since there is no mistaking its attractiveness. A stop-loss at 33.88, just below 'C', would risk nearly $1,000 on four round lots, but we'll look to cut that down to size with 'camouflage' when GDXJ triggers the trade by touching  x.  If you're interested, stay close to the chat room discussion when it gets closer. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 4:15 p.m.): The scary trade is now 'live', at least in theory. However, because a few minor supports have been stopped out, I'd suggest paper-trading this one. If the trade doesn't work, I would infer it's because the point 'B' high of the relevant pattern was not impulsive -- i.e., it narrowly failed to surpass the June 16 'external' peak at 37.81. In addition, the subsequent C-D leg failed at p2=41.11, well shy of another important 'external' peak at 42.19. All of this is shown in this chart.

Last week's rally died in the midst of some challenging peaks near 110 recorded in December. The subsequent selloff has been steep and probably needs to fall farther before  TLT can turn around.  That implies that p=105.87 is unlikely to hold as support and that the selloff will eventually hit D=104.62.  Plan on bottom-fishing just below there, nearer 104.45, since the target coincides with a prior low.  As always, a decisive overshoot of a 'buying' number would portend more slippage.

March Crude has been taking its sweet time falling to the 58.84 target shown in the chart. We're all rooting for it to get there, and soon, since it would be churlish to wish instead for oil-company executives to do the right thing by committing seppuku. They've been reporting record profits that dwarf any achieved in the past, and this is surely starting to grate on all of us.  The patterns shown in the chart (inset) seems likely to work, since it has already triggered two 'mechanical' shorts at the green line that paid off in a big way. ______ UPDATE (Feb 10):  Someone please wake me if crude jitterbugs its way above the 83.14 'external' peak, creating the first interesting impulse leg since mid-October.  That'd be just what America needs right now: a return to $5 gas.

With Sam Bankman Fried's sordid tale no longer getting airplay, the hucksters in charge of bitcoin have seized the moment to goose cryptos higher with almost no bullish buying. It remains to be seen where heavy supply will spoil the fun, but you can count on delusion-resistant pockets of it at round numbers: 25,000, 30,000, 35,000 and so on. The first is likely to give way shortly, if for no other reason than that a series of highs made there in July and August looms, a tempting bullseye on the backs of doubters. Moreover, no one would be stupid enough to get short here and now, rendering that additional source of supply moot. Nearly all of our 'mechanical' trades in bitcoin over the years have been profitable because this tactic is particularly well suited to exploiting vehicles that move violently. In this case, however, we'll pass up the recent signal to get short at x=21,774 and wait for a less risky chance at 'voodoo' numbers that lie, respectively, near 30,000 and 40,000. Whether bitcoin gets there or not depends entirely on whether the bear rally in stocks keeps on going. When the cryptos eventually resume their fall to oblivion, however, you can bet that the first few days of the collapse will astound with their magnitude. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10): Turns out there was supply lurking at 25,000 after all -- so much of it, in fact, that this flying pig barely poked its snout above 24,000 before sellers smacked it down. The high was strongly impulsive on the daily chart nonetheless, so buyers will assuredly be back when 'news' that could be construed as even remotely bullish for cryptos surfaces. Here's the picture. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:43 p.m.): Once above mid-August's peak at 25,203, BRTI's no-supply crime spree

Treat the stock market as you would a sleazy carnival game and you hold the key to accurately predicting its behavior. Take AAPL, for instance. We should have known that permabears were being set up for a fleecing when an always-complicit news media worked slavishly to stoke anticipation of horrendous Q4 earnings. Apple certainly didn't disappoint in that regard when the company on Thursday reported its first year-over-year sales decline since 2019. Such announcements are usually made after the close, enabling the thieves who manipulate stock prices for a living to work their magic. As they have done countless times in the past, they pulled their bids in after-hours trading following Apple's grim announcement. This induced widows and pensioners to vomit Apple shares at distress prices five percent below where they'd traded on the close. QE Mythology With sellers utterly spent, DaBoyz were easily able to short-squeeze the stock back up to the intraday high within hours. The rigged ups and downs that made this ruse work are shown in this chart. From that point forward, their clown-dunking antics were on autopilot. As the stock relapsed in the wee hours, they covered shorts laid out at Thursday evening's secondary peak. Sellers didn't realize how badly they'd been had until around 5 a.m., when AAPL finished basing on near-zero volume and launched into an 8% rally, from 145 to 157, before the regular session began. QE mythology aside, this is how the Fed effectively injects large sums of instantly spendable money into the economy. With credit stimulus there will always be a lag between falling interest rates and their intended effect on consumer spending. But gift investors/consumers with an 8% rally in the world's biggest-cap stock on a Friday afternoon and you have spiked the wealth effect with methamphetamine. By the

I'm still shaking my head, wondering how I got played this morning. Seems I was too eager for the weak opening to turn into Antietam for bulls. Viewed with hindsight and proper perspective, however, the rigged, oversold opening was the same old one-trick pony we've seen a hundred times before, and it barely dented the bullish chart shown in the inset. This simple view says the bear market rally is headed most immediately to 4220.25, although I'm tempted to use a marquee 'A' at 3735.00 that would max out the pattern at 4233.50. That should be it for this hoax, but let's keep an open mind. Of the two targets, we'll take our pick and get short when -- not if -- the futures get there.  We can go with the bullish flow in the meantime -- no matter what the news or how dismal the earnings announcements, and regardless of how brazenly the openings are manipulated. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 11:32 a.m.): Here's the ES chart, updated. I have settled on the maxed-out target at 4233.50 (as implied when I bold-faced it to begin with). Market behavior lately has been as deranged as I can ever recall. The chart eliminates the wacko-o psychosis of price movements in gold, ES and FAANGs, etc. and renders them, simply, as impulse legs and ABCD patterns that don't care about craziness. None of it has disturbed the target, which went out to you last Sunday, when the futures were trading 100 points lower.

The steep, slick wall created by last summer's plunge left us with no 'external' peaks to judge the staying power of the bounce since October's 91.85 low. I've used an unconventional 'reverse' pattern to provide some clues, and it would seem to imply that TLT will rally to at least D=113.78. This is affirmed by its unwillingness to provide bulls with any good 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the daily or weekly charts. We'll want to pay close attention if the rally exceeds 113.78 and pushes toward a test of the 120.69 peak recorded in August. Its decisive breach would be a big deal, since that would suggest interest rates are likely to keep falling.

I still think this is the pattern that will usher gold futures above $2,000 for the fist time since since April -- just not on our schedule. It did nothing as the week ended to monetize the 'mechanical' buy triggered on Thursday, although the position was showing a slight gain at the closing bell. I cannot 'guarantee' D=2017.70 will be reached, since buying died precisely at the 1966.60 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance  (p was a decent speculative short, actually, for subscribers who trade this vehicle aggressively). If the futures dip below the green line and you hold no position, try bottom fishing at 1921.2 with a stop-loss at 1920.80. This is a speculative play based on the 60-minute chart where a= 1966.10 on 1/26 and b=1935.10. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 6:42 a.m.): Last week's stall at the p midpoint pivot of D=2017.70 is about to have consequences, with the futures poised to negate the pattern noted above with a marginal dip (or worse) below C=1915.50. They'll come down to around 1900 if they slip any lower, or possibly even to 1891.10 to test an important low recorded there on January 12. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 10:23 p.m.): Ha ha very funny. The futures' dive on the opening bar failed by a tick to stop out the bullish pattern and its 2017.70 target. If the April contract hits p=1966.6 and then falls again to x=1941.10, that's would trip a 'mechanical' buy that I'd recommend, subject to the usual caveats. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 6:26 pm.): The drop from just shy of 1966 only came down to 1955.40, so there was no trade. It left this pattern, with a short-term target at 1982.30. The  pattern  looks opportune for a 'mechanical' buy following a one-level pullback to either p=1968.90 or x=1962.10. Attempt the