Rick Ackerman

I will be on holiday for a short while, far from Florida's disabling seasonal heat and eager to enjoy what so far has been the coolest, foggiest summer anyone who lives in San Francisco can remember. This will be a busman's holiday, since I plan to update the actionable 'touts' on this page 24/7 and to remain fully engaged in the chat room as always, providing timely ideas whenever unusual opportunities arise, and answering all questions related to trading. I will also continue to put out actionable guidance at GoldenMeadow.eu. However, in this space, instead of the usual weekly commentary and graphics, I will present a changing selection of paintings by Geoffrey Leckie, my college roommate during our third year at the University of Virginia. His canvases are beautiful and extraordinary (see above), and can speak for themselves. If you want to know more about the artist, click here. Expect a Melt-Up Concerning the stock market, it would not be unusual for it to go nuts while I'm away from my desk for an extended period. If so, expect the direction of the craziness to be UP. I am on record with a prediction that the S&Ps are about to stage a thousand-point rally. A crash will follow, but I doubt it will happen before late October.

Bitcoin's violent price swings have grown tiresome, especially since they are failing to reach obvious Hidden Pivots in both directions. Friday's trampoline low was predictable within less than 0.1%, but I won't say any more than that, since I somehow managed to overlook a glow-in-the-dark feature of the chart that would have told me where to look for it. To get back on track, this week's chart features the simplest pattern that can instruct us gainfully. I've blocked out its origins for proprietary reasons, but the segment shown tells us that if buyers pop this gas-bag decisively past the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=117,605), it'll be bound for a minimum 120,582 (p2), or d=123,560 if any higher.

I've applied my very bullish interpretation of the S&P chart to Microsoft shares this week, producing an ambitious bull-market target at 593.79. This effectively shelves the question of whether the engineered, short-covering spike to 555.45 on July 31 marked a definitive top. It did not, as long as we give sufficient weight to the ease with which buyers surmounted the pattern's 469.26 midpoint Hidden Pivot in June. Looking ahead, if MSFT is going to sync up with the thousand-point rally I've forecast for the S&Ps, it would imply the current correction has significantly further to go, possibly to the 469.29 midpoint, or even to the green line (x=407.04).  A 'mechanical'  buy at either would be an opportunity we should not pass up, so be ready.

I wouldn't touch this little hoax until it comes down to the 113,924 Hidden Pivot target shown. Bitcoin would be a spec buy there, tightly stopped, although I've masked the predictive pattern's coordinates for reasons of confidentiality.  Earlier, I'd expected a tantalizing low of 105,762 to materialize, but we've seen no such weakness. Does this portend an even higher top, as Bitcoin ascends to water-show heights for a 150-foot dive into a wet sponge? Perhaps. There is a good case for a bull-market high at 134,728, but you'd be foolish to hold out for more, no matter how strong the exhortations from pubescent experts who see the King of Cryptos rising into the zillions.

October Gold's latest relapse has brought it down to within easy distance of the 3317.70 Hidden Pivot support I'd said would provide a risk-averse buying opportunity.  At the least, the target will have spared you the pain of trying to bottom-fish this brick as it began to fall from 150 points higher.  The pattern I used to project a tradable low is sufficiently gnarly that a turn from very near the target is likely.  Typically, I use 'reverse pattern' triggers to reduce entry risk to relative pocket change on trades that go against the trend. Since this tactic could require course corrections in real time, however, I can only suggest that you bottom-fish using your own risk-management methods. If the Hidden Pivot works, the futures should reverse from within no more than 4 to 5 points of 3317.70. If one assumes the turn will come from within a point or less of the target, it's possible to fashion a trigger on the one-  or three-minute chart that limits entry risk to less than $100 per contract.

I've settled on the hourly chart, with an ambitious rally target at 78.31, as our lodestone. The gap through p=71.12 on first contact is not merely encouraging, it is highly favorable toward the continuation of the uptrend to at least 78.31. There is also reason for caution just above, at 74.72, a secondary Hidden Pivot that closely coincides with the 74.88 'D' target of an alternative pattern displayed here last week.  An imminent stall seems likely, but if it is brief, you can take that as evidence D will be achieved.

I wouldn’t touch this little hoax until it comes down to the 113,924 Hidden Pivot target shown. Bitcoin would be a spec buy there, tightly stopped, although I’ve masked the predictive pattern’s coordinates for reasons of confidentiality.  Earlier, I’d expected a tantalizing low of 105,762 to materialize, but we’ve seen no such weakness. Does this portend an even higher top, as Bitcoin ascends to water-show heights for a 150-foot dive into a wet sponge? Perhaps. There is a good case for a bull-market high at 134,728, but you’d be foolish to hold out for more, no matter how strong the exhortations from pubescent experts who see the King of Cryptos rising into the zillions. _____ UPDATE (Aug 19, 1:05 p.m.): Check the chat room for an updated target (113,344, already exceeded slightly), and trading instructions. _______ UPDATE Aug 21, 1:08 p.m.): Sellers are crushing ‘concrete’ Hidden Pivot supports with ease. The next tradable ‘hidden’ support lies at 107,064, which can also serve as a minimum downside objective. If it shows little pluck, Bitcoin could be on its way down to as low as 89,595. That’s not far from a target aired here months ago that I came to view as unlikely to be achieved any time soon. Right now, though, pending confirmation by a breach of 107,064, it is looking like no worse than an even-money bet

Trump looks like a hero now, but he could become a goat when the bull market ends. He campaigned as the man who would make America great again, and no one should doubt the sincerity of this quest or his commitment to returning the nation to its core values. To judge from his accomplishments so far, he is up to the task. Few could have imagined he would crush the entrenched woke movement and hamstring Deep State within less than a year of taking office. If he can finish the job by bringing criminal charges against Obama, Hillary Clinton, Comey, Clapper, Brennan et al., and make the charges stick, his presidency would become one for the ages. But odds are considerably less favorable that he will be able to prevent the stock market and the U.S. economy from imploding under the weight of public debts grown far too large to repay. They include $37 trillion owed by the U.S. Treasury, as well as the financial liabilities of at least two dozen states, led by the breathtakingly reckless Illinois, whose pension system, along with many others, is just a bear market away from failure. The sums involved are much too big for a taxpayer bailout, and when they are ultimately deflated to zero by bankruptcies, the result will distance America more than ever from greatness. Many Jobs -- for Robots Trump's plan is to ignite economic growth robust enough to make public debts manageable and homes more affordable. But the way he is going about it, with a surge in deficit spending and a Federal Reserve Board hand-picked to turbocharge an already overheated financial system, will only add more IOUs to the mountainous pile that already exists. Although there will eventually be offsets from tariff collections and the re-shoring of U.S.

As a hard-core permabear, I find this chart painful to contemplate. It says a thousand-point rally is coming in the S&Ps and that nothing, not even an October surprise, can derail it. This conclusion is related to the way in which buyers penetrated the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 6165.88. Not only did they slice through it on the first try, they then closed above it for three consecutive bars and never looked back. The pattern itself is too obvious to yield a penny-precise top to short, but there is no mistaking the power that made such short work of p=6165.88. As many subscribers will already know, price action at the midpoint pivot is a reliable telltale even when the underlying pattern is less-than-appealing, never mind perfect. In this instance, there is also the prospect of a back-up-the-truck bottom-fishing opportunity if the futures relapse to the green line (x=5498.94).  Although the implied plunge of nearly a thousand points would be widely viewed as the start of a bear market, it would be an exceptional opportunity to reload, as far as we're concerned.