With a crucially important election looming, the S&Ps were understandably subdued, since no one knows what the vote will bring. I'd recommended getting long 'mechanically' if the futures pull back to the green line (x=3653), but this should be done only by those with the technical chops to cut the implied, $30,000 entry risk down to perhaps $1,200 or so. This recommendation implies that after touching the green line, the futures will be more likely to rally at least to p=3804.00 than they are to fall beneath 3502.00, the reverse pattern's point 'c' low. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 12:43 p.m.): See my 12:24 post and follow-up in the chat room for a current view.
As forecast, AAPL has plunged into the mid-$130s, The prediction was unrelated to Hidden Pivot targets, but rather to the likelihood that there will be many visually compelling stops along the way down to $50 or lower. That's where I see the stock headed, an outlook that I started drum-rolling months ago when the company bragged about how well sales were holding up. One of iPhone's key markets, Europe, was already in the throes of a slowdown that threatens to be far worse than a garden-variety recession. At the same time, China was starting to slip into an abyss of its own, with the U.S. economy presumably not far behind. Under the circumstances, the shares of Apple, whose revenues come mainly from sales of the relatively pricey iPhone, have nowhere to go but down. Considering the company's size, it is arguably the most vulnerable consumer goods company in the world with recession bearing down on us. From a technical standpoint, I expect the stock to bounce from one of my 'voodoo numbers' before falling to test last June's $129 low. I'll say nothing more about this, however, unless there is very strong interest in the chat room. Let me remind you nevertheless: As AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. Get the stock exactly right and you will get the bear market exactly right. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:43 p.m.): Bears have been struggling to crush this once-might stock, which is still capable of intimidating with doomed rallies. A test of mid-June's low at 129.04 seems so obvious that I have not prepared a chart with Hidden Pivot levels to target the downtrend. Another reason is that the little p.o.s. has a habit of leaving sausage 'B' lows to terrorize and bamboozle erstwhile bottom-fishers. Such lows diminish the accuracy and
The rally begun nearly two weeks ago from 91.85 is threatening to reverse, cutting short the respite that investors in Treasury Bonds may have felt. It's too early for them to run up a white flag, but I've reproduced a longer-term chart that shows how precarious their position is. A further fall to 86.48 would hardly be a shocker, especially in the light of an outstanding target of mine at 4.64% for the 30-year. I estimate that the two targets would be roughly in synch. Whatever the case, a relapse would inflict even more punishment on all who owe dollars. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:10 p.m.): The biggest one-day move that we've seen in a long while surpassed an 'internal' peak at 97.90 on the daily chart, but it will have to get past an 'external' high at 100.90 to turn the chart bullishly impulsive and suggest the bear market has ended. If this happens with no significant retracements, it would be even more bullish.
Gold took its biggest leap in recent memory Friday. Is it time to ratchet up our skepticism? Even more suspicious is that the rally was triggered by news with no real meaning: 260,100 jobs added to the economy in October. However, what is ostensibly bullish about bullion's hysteria is that it came following the third low to have tested a 1622.40 Hidden Pivot support that has gotten pounded since late September. A durable bottom may be in, but let's stipulate that the futures push above the 'external' peak at 1787.30 recorded on October 4 before we start trusting the uptrend. If you are inclined to trade the move regardless of where it might lead, please say so in the chat room -- preferably with a strategy to offer. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:19 p.m.): The rally pushed past two 'external' peaks today, generating the most impressive impulse leg since February on the daily chart. There is an opportunity for buyers to rack up a third 'external' -- all without a retracement -- further shortening the odds that this move is the start of a significant trend change.
Friday's blitzkrieg rally capped a whole month of gingerly stair-stepping. Would you believe that all of it did not push the futures past a single 'external' peak on the daily chart, let alone generate an impulse leg? The good news is that it would require a further push of just 82 cents to create a quite promising one. The chart (see inset) clarifies this with a peak I've circled at 21.74 that was recorded at the end of June. It may not look like much, but it is as significant technically as most of the more obvious peaks on the chart. I've set an alert there, and bulls should take heart if it gets triggered this week (the earlier the better). _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:33 p.m.): The futures topped almost exactly at the 21.90 target I posted in the chat room at 8:44 a.m., so they are due for a rest. However, the subsequent pullback has been shallow so far, implying bulls are still revved up. They will have their work cut out for them trying to make headway over the next few days, though, since the uptrend has entered a thick band of supply deposited last spring between 21.72 and 22.76 (corrected) . We'll be better able to judge the staying power of the rally once we've seen how it fares 'in the zone'.
Bears have been trying to kick this proxy for small miners into a deep hole with a 22.89 bottom, but three weeks of pounding on the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 27.62 has failed to bring success. This is mildly bullish and encouraging, but we should set a reliable benchmark to tell us if buyers are finally getting serious. A tick above the August 10 peak at 35.26 would diminish the possibility of a false signal, but we don't want to be so demanding that we miss a significant part of the move before diving in Accordingly, I'll suggest setting using 32.76, just above a minor 'external' peak recorded on August 25. Although we can trade this ETF without a strong bias in the meantime, we should be especially alert to the possibility of a head-fake, something bullion has been doing vexatiously for...years. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 4:42 p.m.): Today's powerful rally exceeded some daunting peaks, including an 'external' at 32.75 recorded back in late August. This is strong evidence the move begun from the 25.80 low on September 6 is not just a tease. If that's the case, buyers should have little trouble punching through the 34.18 'D' resistance of this pattern. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:40 p.m.): Bulls did all we'd asked of them with brio, impaling the resistance noted above en route to a 34.75 high. Now, if they can extend the rally without a pullback to exceed the August 10 peak at 35.25, that would significantly increase the likelihood of a run-up to tghe psychologically important $40 level.
This week's chart would seem to hold little encouragement for the many who have been praying for fuel price to come down. Unfortunately, December Crude appears to be basing for a run-up to as high as 123.34, but at least to 99.52. The lower target somewhat exceeds the 95.28 target of a smaller pattern we've been using to keep us on the right side of the market. Although I expect a tradeable pullback from there, I doubt it will get very far. I can also see opportunities for shorting successfully on the way up, but going with the trend, as always, will be more difficult. The prospect of fuel prices going even higher as winter encroaches is scary. A relapse in the price of December Crude to beneath the September low at 75.70 looks possible, but sellers would first have to take out a prior low on the weekly chart to make it happen. The nearest lies at 81.30. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:53 p.ml.): The rally died in an interesting place, just pennies shy of a 'voodoo' number and well short of the key high at 95.55 recorded in late August. This leaves me more open-minded to the possibility of a plunge to as low as 79.89, an event that I could understand more easily than sky-high targets with the global economy sinking into recession-or-worse. Here's the target pattern -- and yes, you can us p=83.82 to anchor a reverse-pattern trigger to bottom-fish there.
Economics, the “dismal science,” has taken quite a beating in the current election cycle. Last week, Joy Reid, MSNBC’s rising-star bimbo, tried to convince viewers that the word “inflation” has no meaning outside the academy and the newsroom. “Most people who would never use that word in their lives are using it now because they’ve been taught it [by the Republicans.]" Oh, really? Perhaps she has a more accurate word to describe the cause of soaring prices for nearly everything since Biden ostensibly took charge? A network headline the same day evinced further confusion on the subject: White House Disputes Recession Fears. Although it’s Biden’s prerogative to try to control the narrative, he risks alienating even Democrats with such outrageous spin when the plain truth is staring us in the face. For the first time in more than a decade, middle-class Americans have been tightening their belts and cutting back on essentials, and 81% of them say they are either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the economy. Despite this, the recession debate, such as it is, has been going on for quite some time and continues to this day. You could even argue that Biden appears to be winning on points. Eggheads, pundits and other credentialed dissemblers recruited by the mainstream news media to take a bullet for the team have been dependable recession deniers. And even Chase president Jamie Dimon, who should know better, speaks of recession as a “possibility” in 2023. All of them should harken to the observations of Matt Barnes, a Rick’s Picks subscriber who noticed the U.S. economy slipping into recession early in the second quarter. He would know, since he’s in the shipping-pallet business, as good a mine canary as you could have for discerning a drop-off in economic activity. A Silent Crash
A powerful short squeeze capped the week, daring badly bloodied bears to stand their ground. The rally narrowly exceeded the 3917 target I'd drum-rolled five days earlier, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some Rick's Picks subscribers evidently doubled down at the close, betting that the best time to get short is when conditions seem most dangerous. Friday's close easily passed that test when the futures came to rest a single point shy of an important external peak at 3925.25 recorded September 21 on the way down. If DaBoyz can levitate this gas-bag above that structural resistance Sunday night or Monday, it would refresh the impulsive energy of the hourly chart and put the December contract on track for a finishing stroke to the 4110.75 target of this pattern. You can short there with a tight stop-loss (and at p2=3959.75), but your trading bias should be aggressively bullish otherwise. ______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:43 p.m.): This afternoon's wild swings offered yet another glimpse of the two forces that animate Wall Street: fear and greed. In the context of the larger pattern shown here, the histrionics amounted to just a hiccup, albeit one that would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy if the futures plummet to x=3653.00, the green line. The $30k of entry risk this implies demands risk-averse tactics for initiating the trade, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _____ UPDATE (Nov 3, 8:37 p.m.): Mr Market was providing few clues concerning whether the futures were about to take out today's low at 3704, presumably bound for the 3653 target flagged above. A breakdown would put them on course for an even lower target at 3631.50 that is shown in this chart. Note also that before ES weakened at the end of the regular
I've used a conventional ABC pattern to project a 158.43 rally target that looks all but certain to be achieved. Shorting there is another matter, however, since it coincides with a distinctive peak recorded on September 21 that will likely figure prominently in the plans of the algos and EDTP (electronic day-trading platform) whizzes we go up against every day. My preference would be to anchor the 'c' high of a reverse pattern three points above the target and to use a 14-cent trigger interval. This one's for subscribers who are comfortable with rABC trades. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:54 p.m.): AAPL has fallen hard after failing to reach my 158.43 target, let alone push above a key 'external' peak at 158.74 recorded on September 21. This is a telling sign of weakness to come and a reason to be cautious about buying into rallies. Expect this selloff to continue down in to the mid $130s.
