The soul-sucking correction from the August 2020 high at 65.95 has had no fewer than five false starts, stopping out bulls at prior lows each time. This has been dispiriting to the point of despair, although it has yet to negate the bullish implications of the spectacular impulse lag that bucked up our spirits in the first place. It exceeded two valid 'external' peaks, making it very difficult for Mr Market at his nastiest and most determined to wreck the pattern by stopping out the 'C' low at 19.52. How far he will go trying to screw bulls is not predictable with any great confidence right now, but the best possibility I can foresee would be an upturn from 31.13, a 'voodoo' level'; and the worst, from the D target at 25.35 tied to A=51.92 on April 18. _______ UPDATE (Sep 8, 10:51 p.m.): Today's feisty rally created a bullish pattern on the hourly chart that points as high as 31.05 over the near term. First, though, bulls will need to blast through p=30.18. The pattern looks quite serviceable for 'mechanical' buying on the way up, provided Mr Market gifts us with the punitive retracement needed to make this possible.
No fewer than six times have bulls gotten trapped on fake rallies since early July, and so they've finally given up. Friday's breakdown implies the Sep Micro Bitcoin futures are now bound for a minimum 18.875. Trade this target with a bearish bias until the midpoint Hidden Pivot support is touched, then reverse the position using a 'camo' trigger on the 15-minute chart or less. A one-level move would be worth about $800/contract. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room if and when the trade approaches, I'll furnish coordinates for doing this in real time. The switch from $BRTI to a vehicle that is actually tradeable rather than a prixy is intended to revive chat room interest in it. ______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 7:04 p.m.): A subscriber mentioned that each trade in this vehicle generates a rip-off commission of $7. Since there appears to be no respectable proxy to trade bitcoin, I'll be thrilled to drop it from the list entirely. Someone suggested BITO, but there are gaps all over the chart, since it only trades during regular hours. For all the global blather and hubris, including by the banks, a good way to trade cryptos was never established. What does that say?
Call it a recession or anything else you prefer, but the bottom line is that the prosperity of decades past is not coming back. Thinking expansively about the economy is no longer part of the American mindset, since, as should be perfectly clear to everyone by now, the Fed's epic, easy-credit hoax can do little but inflate asset values to the point of collapse. We are nearly there now, even accepting that the U.S stock market, afflicted by mass psychosis, will remain capable for a while of staging one last, fatally deceptive hurrah to make certain everyone is aboard for the crash that ends two generations of economic madness. We can no longer delude ourselves into thinking the statistics pushed at us by Biden, but also by his predecessors, portend better times. Least meaningful of all, but still greeted with spin, hubris and a raucous burlesque of feigned nervousness on Wall Steet, are employment figures that would suggest the economy is producing plenty of jobs. But what kind of jobs, and for whom? Leave it to my friend and colleague Charles Hugh Smith, one of the most insightful thinkers in the blogosphere, to tell it like it is: The picture is quite despairing, he avers. Not necessarily for you and me as individuals, though, since each of us in theory has the wherewithal to plan for dealing with the worst of times. For him personally, that means not merely hunkering down with a perhaps overly optimistic Plan B, but with a rigorously plotted Plan C to make him as self-sufficient as possible when an energy-dependent food network has made it extremely difficult for people living in heavily urbanized areas to feed themselves and keep warm. Accordingly, he has also scaled back energy use in and around his home in Hawaii,
More pain is coming, since the July 15 low at 18.17 generated the first impulse leg we've seen on the weekly chart since this interminable correction began exactly a year ago. The low breached the distant, look-to-the-left external from last June by only a hair, but that's enough to allow the presumption that the C-D follow-through leg will have its way. It should reach p=18.53 at least, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with the usual precautions. But if the support gets splattered, look for more downside to p2=17.37, or even D=16.22 in the Sep-Oct period.
What a shocker. The no-decision monkeys who have lived off AAPL's autopilot bull market have succeeded in levitating the stock to within a split hair of the 172.78 target I spotlighted here weeks ago. It was trading in the 140s then, and it seemed difficult to believe at the time that the stock could rise that much on punk earnings, a U.S. economy sinking into recession, and Apple Inc. unable to innovate its way out of a Glad bag. But just look at it! Another 6% and it'll be in record territory. I've documented the short-squeeze tactics that were used to goose the world's biggest-cap stock skyward with hardly any bullish buying or even cash outlays. It was a simple trick: Let the stock drop overnight until sellers are exhausted, then run it up shorts' wazoos on the opening bell. The rally has been a fraud every inch of the way, but there's no denying it worked. And now what? Can AAPL wait for the broad averages to catch up? Probably not, since the Nasdaq and even the FAANGs are trading closer to their bombed out lows than to their insane, all-time highs. It should be interesting to watch the DaBoyz try to vamp for a month or two while the U.S. economy continues to sink into the crapper. Stay tuned to this page and the chat room for the technical play-by-play. _____ UPDATE (Aug 15, 7:43 p.m. EDT): A feebler than usual short squeeze topped at 173.40, 0.3% above my target, so I recommended buying the expiring 165/160 put spread 16 times for 0.12. This is a 30-to-1 horse, so don't get your hopes too high. Offer eight of them to close for 0.25, good through Wednesday and contingent on the stock trading 170.00 or higher. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17,
Picking tops has been all the rage lately, and not just in the Rick's Picks chat room. At the moment, it's premature to speculate about it, since the futures are all but guaranteed to rise to at least 4312.75 before they hit anything that could conceivably repel the stampede. The impediment is shown in the chart as the 'D' target of a minor rally pattern. There have been no pullbacks sufficient to allow us to get long 'mechanically,' at least not on the daily chart, and that is usually a sign a D will be achieved. The 4418.00 target of a much larger pattern drum-rolled here earlier is also very much in play. As much could be surmised from the fact that DaBoyz made no attempt on Friday to prevent a breakout in the final hour. They apparently figured they won't even need a sneak-attack short squeeze on Sunday evening to do the job. Look for the futures to hit or exceed 4312.75 before Monday's session is an hour old. The target is worth trying to short, but only if you can keep the entry risk down to no more than 1.50 points per contract. _______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 8:57 a.m.): This tout mysteriously vanished from the home page. I don't know whether yesterday's rally to 4304.75 from the by-now-obligatory, manipulated, oversold low at the opening is as high as this hoax is going to get in this bull cycle, but it didn't come quite close enough to my 4312.75 target to trigger an appealing short. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 5:07 p.m.): Mr Market definitely seems to know that some widely followed chartists have been predicting a top right here, right now. That's what has been causing the wacky price action, along with the nagging feeling that nothing can hold
Crude would trigger a 'mechanical' short if it touches the green line x=96.15. However, because the impulse leg was such an agonizing slog, I can recommend this trade only to subscribers who know how to cut the implied theoretical entry risk of $23,000 on four contracts to perhaps a tenth of that. It would require close attention to 'camouflage' opportunities on the sub-15-minute charts, aka 'camouflage. Merely spectating will have its rewards, since the next leg down should help snuff inflation at the pump as well as the unchecked greed of Big Oil. _______ UPDATE (Aug 15, 7:54 p.m.): Use the 81.79 target shown here as a minimum downside projection for the near term. If this Hidden Pivot support fails, the next step down would be to 78.93, calculated using A=111.14 from June 29. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 9:27): The failure of bears to reach p2=84.66 of the pattern shown in the thumbnail inset suggests it is on its way up to at least to the green line (x=96.11). It would trigger a 'mechanical;' short there, stop 101.85, but I am not recommending the trade because of the weakly erratic nature of the A-B impulse leg.
Gold has been huffing and puffing for two weeks without making much headway. That's not saying it can't still pop through p=1840.80 with brio, but we'll need to see it happen before we get excited. Thereupon, p2=1913.10 would become out minimum upside objective, with a shot at 1985.40 for the bull cycle begun three weeks ago from 1696. As always, a decisive penetration of any of the three Hidden Pivot levels implies a continuation of the trend to the next. The pattern looks likely to produce winning 'mechanical' buys if gold hits an air pocket as it seems wont to do whenever bulls get too interested. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 11:06 p.m.): Maybe the D=1772.2 downside target shown in this chart will provide a respite for buils, however brief and unsatisfying? ______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 9:32 p.m.): It provide no respite whatsoever when the 'hidden' support gave way like wet tissue. But none of us could have been surprised, since gold, in its tedious bottoming process, seems to delight in disappointing bulls about 90% of the time. This may be an even more dismal spell than usual, given the dollar's bullish breakout (see my DXY update elsewhere on this page.
December Silver appears on track for push to the 21.93 'D' target of the pattern shown. The odds were somewhat enhanced when last week's dip from just above the red line (p=20.78) failed to provide a 'mechanical' buying opportunity by reaching the green line as required. Don't pass up a buying opportunity if it should swoon to x this week, but check the chat room for risk avoidance guidance before you leap. The rally target lies within a thicket of supply deposited on the daily chart last spring, and so a decisive push through D would be more impressive than usual. ______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 11:19 p.m.): My mild enthusiasm for Silver appears to have been unwarranted, perhaps because I overqualified the impulse leg that seemed to be driving the rally. The last piece of it exceeded no 'external' peaks, even though the launch stage got past some small ones near the bottom of the move. Anyway, the December contract appear likely to abort the 21.95 rally target, and I'm not about to sugarcoat what could happen after that. The disappointing picture is shown in this chart.
Last week's steep fall to the green line from just shy of D will provide an interesting test of 'mechanical' set-ups, since they are designed to signal buying opportunities when one's instincts shout 'Flee for your life!' Bulls must have been feeling like that on Thursday, when the downdraft reached a perhaps temporary bottom. It should be good enough to propel TLT to at least p=116.90, but I hadn't recommended buying at x unless you are familiar with 'camouflage' set-ups that can pare entry risk by as much as 95%. Please let me know in the chat room if you took the trade and I'll establish a tracking position if there are at least two of you. ______ UPDATE (Aug 15, 11:05 a.m. ET): The gap-up opening hit 116.75, so you should be out of half the position. I'll use the current price of 116.17, well off the high, to establish a cost basis of 112.91 for the 200 shares that remain. Tie them to an impulsive stop-loss at 114.83 for now, o-c-o with an offer of 100 shares at 118.50 and another 100 at 119.30. _____ UPDATE (Aug 16, 5:27 p.m.): For those who actually did the trade, the stop would have taken you out today for a $384 gain. We got lucky, since this vehicle has been trading like garbage.
