There is little doubt GDXJ will soon achieve the 57.17 target shown. Is that all there is, some might ask. Not by a longshot. Here's a bigger picture that shows upside potential to as high as 72.73. More immediately, the 60.62 'secondary' pivot looks like a solid bet to get hit. A puzzle, though, is what could happen after 72.23, a number that would exhaust conventional targets. It turns out that a reverse pattern begun from 84.72 in Feb 2010 allows for upside to as high as 111.59 (!) The corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 64.23, and it roughly coincides with a peak at 65.95 recorded in August 2020, implying double resistance at that level. That is a good thing, since it will create a 'magnetic' challenge for bulls to overcome. _______ UPDATE (Mar 19, 10:04 a.m.): After topping yesterday less than 1% above my longstanding target at 57.17, GDXJ has come down hard, trading as low as 55.70 this morning. If you are looking to augment a long position, stake out a new one, or perhaps close out a covered write initiated near 57.17, you should do so at 54.44, my minimum downside target for this correction if a Hidden Pivot support at 54.84 gives way. Worst case would be 52.03, a ‘hidden’ support where you can back up the truck to replenish your inventory of shares (or naked-short puts if you trade aggressively). Here's a chart to help orient you.
Friday's 101-point thrust came within less than a point of fulfilling the 5649.50 target I'd flagged in the chat room an hour before the day began. I'd said it would take much more than that to produce a bear rally worthy of the name. How much more? Probably another 300 points before bears who have bet the 'don't' line would start feeling queasy. The sassy little pisher that capped the week didn't surpass a single distinctive peak. Still, that's how all memorable bear rallies begin, greeted with skepticism the moment they bolt from the gate. Let's see if short-covering bears have the energy to lift this brick above 3/12's 5675.00 peak as the new week begins. Expect this to happen earlier in the session if at all, since that is when the sleazeball who control the game have the most control over the order book. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17, 12:53 p.m. EDT): The June contract's timid rally this morning just missed taking out a peak at 5726.75 equivalent to the one given above for the March futures. It will do so shortly, however, and will then face a more challenging and less obvious resistance at exactly 5740.25. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of this pattern, which allows a bear rally to as high as 5920.50, a back-up-the-truck number for getting short. You can try shorting 5740.25 as well, provided you can handle a 'camo' trigger on the lesser charts. Risk no more than 3.50 points on the initial stop-loss.
MSFT is the unwitting captive of the pattern shown, with immediate upside potential to 398.06. Judging from the ease with which short-covering bears bulldozed the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 387.49, they should have little trouble inadvertently boosting the stock to the target Monday or Tuesday. If they are still feeling their oats, the next logical price objective would be 414.57, the 'd' target of a larger reverse pattern. Its corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 395.74, so a precise stall there would validate the pattern and increase the odds of an equally precise, shortable top if and when 413.80 is reached.
Expect ten-year rates to continue ratcheting lower, at least to the 3.959% 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. The breach of p=4.242% was not decisive, and rates have yet to close for two consecutive weekly bars below it. However, the initial downside penetration reached the 'sweet spot' between p and p2, implying that an uptick in rates to the green line (x=4.526%) would be a short sale. The chart is inconclusive about whether d=3.675% will be achieved, but an overshoot of p2 would shorten the odds. It is my maximum downside target, nonetheless.
Once again, we return to a familiar target at 3040.90 that has kept us on the right side of the trend since late 2024, when there were nagging doubts. I could have done with a little more consolidation before the April contract broke out of a fraught range last week, but I don't have much control over such things; I only try to see them coming. The daily chart suggests possible success bottom-fishing a moderate pullback to 2958.30 as the week begins. I put out a target last week at 3230 that came from a 'blended' monthly chart, but let's upgrade that to the 3533.90 target shown. A stall precisely at p=3037.70 would help validate the pattern. It would also set up a promising 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=2789.60 once the futures have reached the sweet spot between p and p2.
Comex Silver hasn't exactly shredded the midpoint resistance of the long-term pattern shown in the monthly composite chart. However, it has frolicked and danced there, suggesting that although bulls are in no great hurry to take the futures to as high as $53, they are determined to get there eventually. The target may not seem spectacular, and there are undoubtedly silver bulls hoping for a doubling of 2011's $50 top. That could still happen, but probably not before a lengthy and deep pullback from 53.06. First, let's allow bulls to turn the midpoint resistance into support with a patient consolidation above it. Use 36.605, or 37.305 if any higher, as short-term rally targets. Both should evince a tradable pullback.
Bitcoins's pullback from the record 108,388 achieved in late December has overshot a 'd' target at 83,603, implying it will grope lower for support from either of two Hidden Pivot supports associated with a larger reverse (rABC) pattern begun from a=69,000 in November 2021. The relevant levels lie, respectively, at 68,233, a p2 'secondary support' that should be used as a minimum downside objective for the time being; or d=54,848 if any lower.
Will there be one last melt-up before this doddering bull market seeks penance? Some of my fellow gurus believe a final show of bravado is coming, especially those who base their predictions on Elliott Wave Theory. I think the party is over, but I'm forced to admit that if too many traders agree with me, new record highs fueled by short-covering are likely. My skepticism is based more on market psychology than on the charts displayed above. We'll get to them in a moment, but first let's consider investors' state of mind, based on what people we know have been saying. Stocks came down hard in the last month -- hard enough for the usually thundering herd to wonder whether it might be time to bail out, or at least lighten up and move into cash. It was not quite a bloodfest, but the megastocks that made 2024 a year to brag about have been hit especially hard. When last week began, the broad averages had given up all of their Trump 2.0 gains and then some. But just when it seemed like stocks were about to go over the cliff, the S&Ps uncorked a 100-point rally on Friday, saving not only the day, but the week. Come Monday, fear will have turned into nervous hope. I expect Mr Market to encourage this self-deception with more upside. And if Friday's surge was the start of a bear rally worthy of the name, we should look for it to continue until nervous hope turns into greed. That would imply a run at the old highs. A Different Kind of Dip The similarities between the charts are too striking to dismiss, along with their implication that the Mother of All Tops is already in. As summer began in 2008, IBM came within
The chart is nearly identical to the one accompanying this week's commentary, but I'll add a proprietary detail that will allow you to plot the next three moves rather than just two. I already mentioned that the selloff of the last three weeks could reverse from a 'voodoo' number at 5641.50. However, if the bounce comes from 5555.00 as is more likely, it would be a good bet to terminate at either 5733.25, or if any higher, at 5912.00. By all means, jot those numbers down, since they offer a possible way to get a tight, tradable handle on price action over the next 3-4 weeks. ______ UPDATE Mar 12): A so-far feeble bounce has come from 5534.00, 0.3% below the 5555 target given above. However, it would need to punch through Hidden Pivot resistance at 5712.75 to be judged significant. The equivalent resistance for the June contract is 5765.25, and its decisive breach could open a path to as high as 5945.50 -- a bear rally worthy of the name.
Although a longstanding correction target at 373.39 remains viable, we'll go with a more timely picture that is bullish and which projects a bounce to as high as 418.66. Friday's dip to the green line (x=390.43) triggered a 'mechanical' buy short that would require a 380 stop-loss, but we'll paper trade this one for now. It should be good for a ride up to at least p=399.83, but a decisive move through that midpoint Hidden Pivot would open a path to the 'd' target at 418 mentioned above. _______ UPDATE (March 10, 11:00 a.m.): My apologies for the rickism of the month. I've corrected the trade noted above that was triggered at 390.43, since it was a 'mechanical' buy under discussion, not a short sale. Also, in case you didn't notice, MSFT failed to bounce and is falling with a vengeance, presumably to the 373.39 target we've been using for quite some time. _______ UPDATE (Mar 12): The bombed-out low of Microsoft's 40-point slide over the last three weeks missed my target by 3.52, or 0.9%, but a relapse that would fulfill the target exactly is still possible. It would be worth bottom-fishing.
