Rick Ackerman

Subscribers should have exited a profitable long trade using a 1942.30 stop-loss before the futures turned limp on Friday. The fact that a moderately appealing 'mechanical' play didn't work better suggests weakness will be the coming week's theme. But probably not too much of it, since sellers have not shown much gumption either. My gut feeling is that DaBoyz will stop out C=1893.20 before they gratuitously reverse until hopes are high enough to dash yet again.  Set your snooze alarm for 2018.40, a tick above an 'external' peak recorded on March whose breach would signal a bullish resurgence. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 5:04 p.m.): After plunging sharply overnight, the reversal came exactly as anticipated, from a hair below C=1893.20. One subscriber reported making hay with the $13 rally that ensued. The futures spent the rest of the day playing footsies with 'C', leaving me with little more to say at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:55 p.m.): Although June Gold has bounced from precisely where we'd anticipated, the countertrend has been weak. This has activated the bearish pattern shown in this chart, with a D target at 1825.80. It is an odds-on bet to be reached because of the easy with which the downtrend penetrated p=1914.40, then made it resistance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:16 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply off p2=1870.10 of the bearish pattern that projects to 1825.80, delaying a still-likely fall to that number. This has activated Matt's Curse in a bullish way, although I'd need to see the rally surpass 1922.80 before I change my tune.

Silver's rally fizzled, as so many of them do, stranding a 'mechanically' acquired long in limbo just above a 24.04 stop-loss. The sting would have caused little pain, however, since subscribers were advised to set up a 'camouflage' trigger when the futures first came down to the green line. I am anticipating a gratuitous dip below C=24.04 before bulls could attempt yet another charge for better or worse. The chart is such a mucking fess that I can offer no compelling downside targets. This suggests that the next upturn will come firm a 'discomfort' zone lying in the grey void between two prior lows.

June Crude validated the bearish pattern shown on Friday with a day-long game of toe-sies at the red line. That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 101.18, and its decisively breach would signal more downside over the near term to at least p2=99.05, or possibly to D=96.93 if any lower. So far, however, the breach has been slight, and it would therefore be premature to offer odds of a further fall. In the meantime, we can look to get short 'mechanically' on a rally to the green line, but I am recommending that the trade be initiated only via 'camouflage'. In practice, that would mean using a downtrending ABCD pattern on a 15-minute chart or lower to set up a trigger.______ UPDATE(Apr 25, 5:12 p.m.): Crude's plunge crushed all of the Hidden Pivot supports identified above, sending the June contract into  a boring void of white space on the daily chart. Adding to the boredom was the return of the June futures to the midway point of the intraday range. UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:19):  The picture is still moderately bullish but boring.

We've been using a big-picture rally target at 103.25, but let's start the week with a focus on a more conservative target at 101.97 that looks all but certain to be achieved.  Its main importance lies in its ability to tell us whether the steep uptrend might be losing steam. As always, an easy move through a Hidden Pivot resistance would portend more strength to come. The dollar's rise matters a great deal because it raises the price of oil for most of the world outside the U.S., and because it increases the burden of debt for all who have borrowed dollars. _______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 11:18 p.m.): The dollar has very precisely hit an important target at 103.25 that took four years to achieve, so extra caution is warranted. We'll move to the sidelines for now.

If you're a permabear, it might be refreshing to view Friday's thousand-point Dow avalanche as the start of a wholesome new trend. My gut feeling, however, is that the plunge will reverse before midweek, ideally at Hidden Pivot targets featured in the latest list of 'touts' on the Rick's Picks home page. I'll keep an open mind about this if the targets get smashed, but I'm not convinced the stock market has begun the punitive reset it has needed so badly for years. Arguably more interesting and consequential is the steep ascent of yields on the 10-Year Note to within inches of a 3.24% target that I've been drum-rolling for months. What will happen when we get there?  My gut feeling is that rates will level off for at least a few months, then head lower for a long, long time as the U.S. and global economies slide into a deflationary bog. Lower rates unfortunately will bring no relief for debtors, however, since the value of assets that they've hocked up to their eyeballs as collateral will be falling as well. Snuffing Inflation From a technical standpoint, the 3.24% target looks too clear and compelling not to halt the rise in long-term rates at least temporarily. From a fundamental standpoint, the reason I doubt the rally will blow past 3.24% is that at that level the total burden of all debts will be sufficient to snuff inflation of every sort, turning the real estate bubble, for one, into a black hole of deflation. This will happen irrespective of what the wizards at the central bank intend or expect. Some are saying the Fed wants the stock market lower. Although that sounds plausible, we shouldn't trust that they know how to do this without collapsing an already shaky global economy. The

While it would be lovely to think that the chimpanzees who make their living throwing OPM at AAPL are finally getting their comeuppance, the reality is that they are allowing it to fall in order to reload at lower prices. AAPL being our main bellwether, this is yet another picture of the groundhog seeing his shadow: six more weeks of phony springtime to be endured by permabears. It's possible I could be wrong -- but not likely, given that the selloff of the last two weeks has come from a high that had impaled two very significant 'external' peaks recorded, respectively, on January 12 and February 9.  Most immediately, however, the downtrend targets 158.47, a tradable Hidden Pivot that comes from A=178.49 (hourly chart) on 4/4. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:15 p.m.): The weak rally to x=168.07 on the opening triggered a 'mechanical' short, stop 171.27.  No one mentioned having done the trade, but I'll track it anyway since AAPL remains our key bellwether for the stock market as a whole. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:18 p.m.): Shorts had no chance when a gap-up opening goosed the stock to 171.53 before it collapsed almost as sharply.

The little hoser spent most of the week tap dancing on a 4388 midpoint Hidden Pivot that had served as our minimum downside objective. Its decisive breach would make further slippage to D=4146.75 more likely, but sellers have looked so gutless lately that we shouldn't take this for granted. More immediately, p2=4267.82 can be used a a minimum downside objective for the near term. I still doubt that bulls have the strength or enthusiasm to stop out C=4631 of the bearish pattern, but let's keep an open mind, lest they use some inscrutable pronouncement from Powell & Co. to catalyze a volume-less short squeeze. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:22 p.m.): Just a little more upside to x=4510 would trigger a mechanical short, stop 4631.25, but I am recommending the trade only to subscribers who can cut the implied entry risk of $6,000 per contract down to $240 or less. In practice, this will require a 'camouflage'  set-up on the 15-minute chart or less.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:24 p..): The futures plunged 70 points after topping a single point from the 4510 benchmark flagged above. No one mentioned getting short as the tout update had suggested, even though I posted instructions for initiating the trade belatedly with a mechanical trigger. 

To alleviate the brutal tedium of gold's dance just beneath my old target, I've created a new, slightly lower target at 1986.40 that has already been achieved. This will not affect the pattern's promise to reward 'mechanical' buyers with relatively low-risk profits, since the tradeable implications of its powerful impulse leg cannot be easily subverted. It will also give us a good chance to catch a potentially tradeable top at D=2079.50 with a high degree of precision. This may take great patience, but the wait will be made more bearable by the knowledge that a nasty swoon would likely spell opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 9:24 a.m.): With just a day's rest, buyers have blown through p=1986.40, all but guaranteeing more upside over the near term to at least p2=2032.90.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 12:56 p.m.): Yes, the pullback to x=1939.80 makes for an appealing 'mechanical' buy'. However, the implied risk of $18,000 risk on four contracts with a stop-loss at 1893.10 warrants doing the trade only if you are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers that could pare the theoretical risk down to around $1600. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:48 p.m.): The futures have rallied $20 off a 1941.00 low that missed the green line by a front-run 1.20. If you did the trade, take 25% off at a current 1953.30 and set a 1942.30 stop-loss for what remains. Our price objective for two of the three contracts still held is p=1986.40.

May Silver's chart is somewhat more bullish than gold's because the C-D leg of the pattern shown has decisively penetrated the 25.83 midpoint resistance. That's notwithstanding the fact that the rally failed to surpass the important 'external' peak at 26.16 recorded two months ago. The p midpoint is the more challenging of the two obstacles, and its breach strongly implies buyers will handle the peak easily when the time comes. If that's what happens, look for the futures to continue their ascent to at least p2=26,73, or even to D=27.62. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 1:04 a.m.): A fall to x=24.93 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.04.  That implies entry risk of nearly $4500 per contract, meaning you'll need to execute the trade camo-style on a chart of 15-minute degree or less to get aboard without betting the ranch. _____ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:27): The 'mechanical' buy suggested above was deeply underwater Thursday night.  Several subscribers reported getting aboard, but none mentioned how, so I cannot offer much help with risk control.  The trade has a 50% chance of working at this point, but even if it does, it's not going to be pretty.