Silver spent a couple of days last week building a base for an easy move to the 26.46 target shown. It has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend, even if the pattern from which it was derived yielded no opportune 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the hourly chart. The target can be shorted if you've made some bucks on the way up, but we should be more interested in how bulls handle the implied 'hidden' supply there. As always, a decisive move past 'D', particularly on first contact, would imply the trend is likely to continue. In the meantime, a pullback to the red line would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.74. We'll deal with risk-cutting if and when the requisite pullback occurs. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 10:01 a.m. EST): The futures topped overnight (suh-prize, suh-prize!) three tenths of a percent from the target flagged above, exhausting tradeable opportunities for the moment. Let's see how long it takes for bulls to reverse the correction and shred past the inconveniently timed high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:54 p.m.): Not long at all, as it happens. You can use 27.54 as a minimum upside projection now, calculated by sliding 'A' down to Feb 3's 22.05 low. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:52 p.m.): The 'reverse' pattern shown in this chart gives silver an easy path to at least 29.75, but there are bigger conventional patterns that project even higher. A pullback to the green line (x=23.49), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 9:48 p.m.): Note to a chat-room denizen posted this evening: "Artie, are you or anyone else following Silver? The May futures fell nearly $2 after coming within a nickel of the 27.54 target flagged above, but no one seems to have noticed. I'd like
April Crude's ascent seems all but certain to continue to at least 117.82, the target shown in the chart, but if this Hidden Pivot resistance fails to slow down buyers, look for a further rally to at least 122.30, the target of a larger pattern (A= 95.29 on 2/28). Chat-room interest in this vehicle has been low, but if I see an exceptional 'camouflage' or 'mechanical' buying opportunity developing intraday, I will nonetheless signal it and send out an email 'Notification'. This is a new Rick's Picks service that has produced some winners for subscribers who are not able to monitor the chat room closely. ______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 10:09 p.m. EST): The odd but entirely legitimate pattern shown maxes out immediate rally possibilities for April Crude with a 141.34 target. Judging from the way buyers crushed the midpoint resistance, the target is all but certain to be achieved eventually. A short there looks promising, but I am suggesting this only to those of you who have made money on the way up or who know how to cut entry risk to relative pocket change with a 'camo' trade set-up. The 141.34 objective is not guaranteed to be precisely accurate, since the coordinates are based on a composite chart. ______ UPDATE Mar 22 7:08 p.m.): This chart shows that today's short squeeze tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=109.73 for a possible shot at 158.34. The 125.94 midpoint pivot can serve as a minimum upside projection for now, however. The pattern is radically different from the one proffered initially, a blended contract with a 141.34 destination. I have not offered a fresh tout with the new chart because WordPress would have put it at the top of the touts list. If subscriber interest in crude revives, though, I will step up
The strong leap that ended the week produced some instant quadruplers for subscribers who bought expiring at-the-money call options when TLT got bludgeoned down to the green line on Wednesday. This provided a textbook buying set-up for a 'mechanical' trade that, by its nature, will tend to scare the hell out of traders who act on the signal. The power of the bounce, in addition to the subsequent consolidation above p=139.32, have shortened the odds that the move will continue to at least 145.13, the 'D' rally target of the pattern shown. An easy move through it would be quite bullish. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:07 p.m. EST): If the pullback continues to the green line, it would trip an enticing 'mechanical' buy there, stop 134.50. Ask me in the chat room if you need more guidance to pare the risk. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:58 p.m. EST): Cancel the 'mechanical' bid, since we've seen a weak rally from just above it. If TLT relapses to x, it seems likely to exceed it. _____ UPDATE (Mar 10, 11:55 p.m. EST): Yuk! The selloff has exceeded Hidden Pivot supports and 'discomfort' zones -- everything, in fact, except the key low at 113.19 recorded a year ago. Don't count on it to hold, but its breach could still set up an appealing 'counterintuitive' play. For the rABC set-up, use a= 136.41 (3/2).
Some serious selling in the cryptos kicked in Friday afternoon after the stock market, evidently tired of falling, had shifted into idle ahead of the weekend. Was Bertie perhaps smart enough to discount the possibility that the Ukraine crisis would not improve over the weekend? Or maybe it was simply concerned that Kamala Harris, by all evidence the most brainless person ever to hold high office in the U.S., was America's point-man in Europe? Whatever the case, for all the terror last week's mau-mauing of crypto bulls may have caused, Bertie would still be a no-brainer 'mechanical' buy if the plunge continues on Monday to the green line (x=37,554). This one is for experts only, but you can still tune to the appropriate thread in the chat room for guidance. Lately, however, this vehicle seems to be attracting little attention in the room. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:14 p.m.): The trade triggered, but so what? Subscribers seem not to care even slightly, but I'll leave Bertie on the list, at least for a while, in case visitors come to the site expecting to find bitcoin analysis. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 9:50 a.m.): Bertie has shriveled into a go-along vehicle, too gutless to rally unless the broad averages are moving higher. Since the broad averages are in a distributive fake-out rally today, I'll suggest setting a stop-loss at 38,100 that would preserve a nominal gain when BRTI reverses with the tide, perhaps later today. Make it o-c-o with an order to exit half of a presumptive four round lots at p=40,766. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 11:15 a.m.): The trade stopped out for a theoretical gain of a little more than $500. I tightened the stop in part because the stock market looks like distributive crap, as mentioned above, but also because I wanted
Economists, particularly those who specialize in monetary theory, generally agree that inflation is an increase in the supply of dollars, and deflation a decrease. In practice, however, this theory is far too vague to be of any value for making predictions, since no one has a clue how much money is out there. There are so many fungible forms of it that even call options on Bolivian reverse floaters could probably be substituted for cash in a cleverly structured transaction. Further complicating the calculation of money in the system is that it can expand like heated gas if borrowers are confident that economic growth will remain strong. That is the underlying dynamic of money velocity, and when the level of confidence reaches a manic level of heedlessness, as is the case now, the money supply will expand commensurately. But what to make of the dollar chart above? The headlines reflect growing anxiety over inflation, since prices for just about everything are rising, led by crude oil quotes caught in a parabola that has gone out of control. Under the circumstances, shouldn't the dollar be getting hammered? There is an easy explanation for this seeming paradox: Although the dollar in plain fact is fundamentally worthless crap, all the other currencies are even worse crap. Further widening the gap is the dollar's singular usefulness in supporting a global casino with table action in derivatives markets alone exceeding $2 quadrillion. The dollar is the only currency remotely capable of handling such sums, and that's why it is indispensable. Its relative buoyancy in the global currency toilet would not be much of a concern but for the fact that the vast preponderance of borrowing is denominated in dollars. This means debts will be harder to repay as the dollar continues to rise. It also
Bears performed so poorly over the last two days that I should have flipped our trading pattern to its bullish doppelgänger yesterday to provide you with a more usable road map. Be that as it may, the April contract looks all but certain to achieve the 1964.00 target shown in the new chart. The pattern has already yielded up one textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line that would have produced an $8,000 profit, but there will be no more such signals unless the futures surprise by diving to the green line again. For now, let's focus on how buyers interact with D=1964.00 on first contact, since an easy and decisive move through it would imply that the good guys, for a change, are likely to remain in charge for a while.
Few expected Ukraine to put up such a fierce fight, least of all Vladimir Putin. Despite his overwhelming advantage of firepower and troops, he and the rest of the world might have known better, given the reputation Russian soldiers of all stripes earned in battle during the last century. Setting ethnic Russians against one another was bound to produce a bloody battle rather than an overnight victory such as Bush achieved shelling Baghdad. As a result, Putin has had to pull out all the stops with a veiled nuclear threat in order to show the world that he has the power to decide the war's outcome if and when chooses. However badly he wants to re-unite the republics under the flag of Mother Russia, fulfilling what he regards as the destiny of a once glorious and powerful USSR, Putin could never have been eager to have Russians spill each other's blood in his quest to rewrite history. It has cost him a reported 4,300 troops already, with corresponding losses on the other side, significant physical damage to Ukraine's physical infrastructure, and an enormous refugee crisis for the country’s civilian population. Nukes? Yeah, Sure... Putin reportedly has put nuclear forces on standby, but the possibility he will use them seems remote. Supposedly, the Russian leader is already considering talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, even though casualties so far are just a small fraction of what they’d be if a nuclear device were to be used. Putin had seemed astute enough in the past to avoid making idle threats, especially grandiose ones, but in this instance he has shown himself to be no better at wielding a big stick than Biden. In these weekly commentaries, I usually attempt to predict how U.S. markets will react to the significant geopolitical events of the
If the rally hits the green line (x=169.59), it would set up a textbook 'mechanical' short, even though the trade might not feel so appealing at the time. It would come with the stock in the throes of a ballistic ascent fueled by increasingly panicky short-covering. Still, the success rate of 'mechanical' shorts at the green line following a dip into the void between p and p2 has been nothing short of remarkable -- perhaps 80% or more. Success in this context means the short once initiated would deliver a gain of at least one full Hidden pivot level. With initial risk of about $2800 on four round lots, I'll suggest using a 'camouflage' set-up to trigger the trade. For real-time guidance, tune in to the chat room if and when the stock gets within 1.00 point of the target. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:40 p.m. EST): If AAPL rallies to the green line, a short there has become less appealing because the stock will have done so following a three-day consolidation above the red line. The trade would still be do-able, but only if you can whittle down risk to a practical minimum with a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room and to 'Notifications' if you seek more-nuanced guidance in real time.
Friday's unrelenting short-squeeze appeared headed to the 4421.50 target of the reverse pattern shown (inset). The run-up from Thursday's low has yielded no interesting buying opportunities, since the pullbacks have been too shallow to bring the futures within the range of a 'mechanical' bid at either p or x. Impulse legs on the hourly chart have not been stellar, however, implying the rally is probably not destined for greatness. Regardless, if the move pops through 'D' with sufficient force, that would increase the likelihood that new record highs are coming. Bears had been slogging painfully lower for nearly three weeks, gaining by inches, but on Friday they were no match for short-covering that seemed hell-bent on stealing it all back in mere days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:50 p.m.): It's not exactly a sign of good health that the March futures have struggled for three days to achieve an easy rally target. Even so, we won't count out the chimps charged with keeping this hoax alive and with making life as difficult as possible for those who would seek to profit from a suspected bear market. Let's move to the sidelines for now.
Bulls might be wondering what they did to deserve such brutal punishment. Why can't gold, which is in a bull market, rise relentlessly like the FAANG stocks have been doing for years? The answer is that gold's bull market is in its adolescence rather than in a hyper-extended blow-off. If it's any consolation, the two day plunge that ended the week failed to wipe out even half of February's strong gains. The correction probably has at least another day or two to run, but I'd suggest using the pattern shown to get a handle on it as the new week begins. You should have noticed that the futures stopped a split-hair shy of a key resistance I'd flagged at 1977.10, demonstrating yet again their propensity to turn at price points so stupidly obvious that experienced traders are scared out of believing they will work. The best way for us to leverage this kind of group-think is to focus on 'counterintuitive' set-ups in particular, since they harness our own fears to make hay with contrarian ideas. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:08 a.m.): Here's the same pattern, but with 'C' adjusted higher. Unless the new 'C' at 1935.20 is exceeded, the pattern should still work well for trading and analytical purposes.
