Rick Ackerman

TLT has broken out with a stab on Friday that not only penetrated a major midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 92.04, it also closed above it. If the uptrend continues for another day or two, it will affirm the likelihood of more upward progress toward p2=95.62, the 'secondary pivot'.  I was skeptical about the strength of the trend earlier because discrete thrusts were not exceeding 'external' peaks on the daily chart. But the uptrend's resilience has been affirmed by a corresponding move lower last week (see my TNX 'tout' below)  in 10-year yields beneath a crucial support at 4.24%. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7):  The breakout was short-lived, but because it generated a true impulse leg by exceeding two prior peaks, one of them internal, the other external, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If another strong leg is coming, this retracement should find traction at either 89.47, a few ticks beneath last week's low, or at  88.08, my worst-case, smackdown low.  Here's a chart to orient you. 

Spartacus' post in the chat room Saturday morning concerned his perception that sellers have not shown much follow-through whenever they appeared to have bulls on the run.  The monthly chart shown in the thumbnail inset would appear to corroborate his observation, although not decisively. Although two consecutive bars have penetrated an obvious midpoint Hidden Pivot support, bears failed to close either bar beneath the red line. The futures remain on a 'mechanical'-short signal nonetheless, but pessimists will likely have grown impatient by now with the so-far non-result. In a smaller time frame, traders might have gotten long at the redline, and they, too, would be at least somewhat depleted by the failure of the March contract to achieve a new record high.  The jury is still out, then, but I would expect a drop to d=5555.00 after we've seen a monthly close beneath p=5866.88, if we do. I would also be an aggressive buyer at that price, if only to leverage a fleeting, corrective bounce.  More immediately, despite Friday's vicious short-squeeze in the final hour, the futures remain on a mechanical'-short signal from 5969.25, stop 6024.00. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 11:41 a.m. EST): How refreshing! The buy-the-dips bozos are finally getting their comeuppance.  Today's avalanche crushed p=5866.88 (see above) so badly that it won't take a monthly close beneath it to ensure that d=5555.00 is achieved. More immediately, the futures will have an opportunity to turn up from 5710.94, the pattern's 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support. We'll make that our minimum downside target for the near term.  Here's the chart.

The stock is on a 'mechanical' short signaled when it poked energetically above 435.47 last week. The 373.39 downside target advertised here earlier looks likely to be achieved. If so, it would be a down payment on a bigger drop to around 300, which I continue to expect. It will also provide an appealing place to bottom-fish, notwithstanding that it has appeared on my front page, available to paying subscribers only. It's possible MSFT will resume bull-market leadership with a strong rebound from 373.39. However, I will continue to favor Bitcoin as my #1 bellwether, since it reflects the manic speculative energy that has fueled the bull market since covid.

Bitcoin's wild histrionics never stop demonstrating that the most crazed trading vehicles are the easiest to forecast. Friday's bounce following a cliff-dive splash occurred precisely at a 'voodoo' support that I was too busy to notice at the time. If you want to play catch-up, jump on this lamb chop on a fall to 81,023, the green line.  The trade would require a 78,166 stop-loss. You can also get short at 89,589, provided you have a way to cut the theoretical risk down to relative pocket change.  My earlier comments anticipated further slippage into the 60s, but first let's see if the headless chickens who animate this vehicle can pop it through my Hidden Pivot resistance at 89,589. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 9:57 a.m.): Bitcoin has been preparing for the next plunge to 70,000 or lower with gratuitously violent swings. They are engineered to help the so-called smart money distribute inventory to the rubes and crazed young people. if a rally gets close to 96,430.27, an interesting Hidden Pivot resistance, I’ll recommend shorting there with a stop-loss no wider than 96,976.01.

Gold had a brush with serious injury on Friday when it touched a 2844.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a worst-case 'd' target at 2714.10.  The April contract took a robust bounce to end the week, but a retest of the support is likely. It would require two consecutive weekly closes below p=2844.10, however, to imply that more downside to D awaits. Regardless, the futures were a good bet for bottom-fishing near Friday's lows. Immediate potential was to 2876.60 (30m, a= 2903.30 on 2/26), or 2889.10 if any higher. If an upthrust decisively penetrates that last Hidden Pivot resistance, it would imply that bulls have regained control of gold. Alternatively, a crushing fall through 2844.10 would portend more slippage to at least 2779.10.

May Silver's cinder-block fall through p = 32.508, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart, leaves no doubt that further slippage to at least d = 30.455 awaits. Expect a tradable bounce from that number or very close to it, but don't bet the farm that the rally will achieve new highs above mid-February's 34.560 peak, let alone above October's at 35.800.  I've published a corresponding target for April Gold, so we're likely to have a verdict soon on whether the long-term bull market in bullion has stalled, or died.  I doubt the latter will occur, but we should be prepared, nonetheless, for a potentially painful correction into the high 20s.

GDXJ's chart is in good shape -- good enough, actually, to hint that the upcoming test of support in gold and silver futures will favor bulls.  The likelihood of this will increase if this vehicle hits the green line just as its Comex-contract cousins are touching their respective 'D' correction targets.  Regardless, if GDXJ falls to x=45.12, shown in that inset chart as a green line, that would signal a 'mechanical'  buy, stop 41.84. Presumably, it would be good for an easy ride back up to at least p = 48.39.

I've updated the marquee only because April is now the active month. My outlook for the near and intermediate term, however, remains virtually unchanged: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. What an ill-behaved bore crude is, even though it is the largest, most heavily rigged commodity market on Earth -- in the Milky Way galaxy, for all we know.  The April futures are currently trading just beneath the middle of a gratuitous $15 range that has obtained for more than three years, fixing to do...whatever. Remember: I'm always available in real-time to vet your oil-trading ideas, even if this tout is just a placeholder.

You’ve heard from ‘Formula382’ before. A longtime Rick’ Picks subscriber, he manages wealth in the Ozarks, using puts and calls aggressively, with a dollop of good timing, to keep clients happy. He has also shown uncanny skill at rotating out of sectors just before they peak. In a recent chat room discussion, Formula wondered whether the recent sharp break in the price of Walmart shares might be a harbinger of trouble – and not just minor trouble, either. He is concerned that when the bull market ends, possibly as soon as spring, it will usher in an economic depression worse than the 1930s. I not only share his pessimism, but also believe that a bust of such magnitude is unavoidable. Here’s the discussion thread from the Trading Room, lightly edited: Formula 432: We’ve all been wondering which stock would lead the market higher now that MSFT has fallen out of bed. Is price action in Walmart perhaps the canary in the coal mine? Is the stock not the largest indicator of overall consumer health? WMT’s dive following the recent earnings report was pretty severe — and fascinating. The company’s CFO expects suppliers to “take price” — i.e., suck up costs associated with inflation and/or tariffs. It turns out WMT doesn’t even factor in the effects of potential tariffs on revenue and earnings. Sounds bonkers to me. The company’s shares have been trading at a 40 multiple, and Costco’s at a nose-bleed 60! These names historically have traded with multiples in and around the mid- to high-teens, much like the S&P. In short, WMT is commanding the multiple of many tech names with just 4-6% same-store sales growth. And not in a hundred Sundays do I believe that the upper crust of the U.S. is now shopping at Walmart. I live