Nasty relapses usually improve our odds of making a profit when we do a 'mechanical' buy, but in this instance the gap-down plunge was too strong for me to suggest putting a bid at the green line (or slightly below it, as was possible at the close on Friday). It is not the punitive behavior of the selling per se that has put me off, but rather the protracted A-B leg that amounts to just a weak impulse leg. We'll watch from the sidelines for now, but please note that the D target at 118.08 will remain viable until such time as C=98.44 is exceeded. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 1:16 a.m.): Even if the midpoint support at 92.38 shown here does not turn GDXJ toward new highs, it will still be worth bottom-fishing with an rABC trigger of minute degree. As always, a decisive penetration of the Hidden Pivot support on first contact would be bearish. That could also set up a 'mechanical' short eventually at the green line. Whatever happens, Mr Market -- known elsewhere in the Milky Way Galaxy as 'Sid' -- is unlikely to fool this pattern.
As last week drew to a close, bears bludgeoned a 'hidden' midpoint support at 108,827 with sufficient vigor to suggest that Bitcoin is a shoe-in to fall to at least p2=100,093. You should play for a tradable bounce from that Hidden Pivot, or somewhere very close to it, since a strong bounce is all but certain. Whether this hoax gets pummeled down to d=91,358 before the global house of cards topples is still speculative, but the odds are good enough that we should plan on shorting the bounce from p2 with a 91,358 downside objective in mind. Meanwhile, there is no reason to think the 18% decline so far from early October's record 126,396 has stirred up any fear among the gambling addicts, avocado toast-eaters and bed wetters who trade the cryptos via RobinHood. They will s**t the bed before the game is over, but that time is not now. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 1:25 a.m.): This wrecking ball has begun to tire me out. It is on a buy signal at the moment at 108,278, stop 103,515. The trade is predicated on a rally to at least 113,039, but possibly as high as 122,562.
The aging bull market smells like it's in a topping process, although it could take a vicious head-fake or two to new highs to set the hook. Last week, I raised the possibility that shares had entered a vortex similar to the one that led to the 1929 Crash. A key similarity is that investors have begun to freak out over tariff news they'd grown accustomed to shrugging off. Is it possible the reason for the stock market's hysterical behavior lies elsewhere? The mainstream media and its vaunted experts used China's 'rare-earths' threat ten days ago to explain why shares plummeted that Friday. However, when the market began to recover Sunday evening, they changed their tune with sheepish second-day stories about how rare-earth minerals turn out to be not so rare after all. It is the breathtaking stupidity and incompetence of journalists who invent the news that has caused me to tune out their blather and focus solely on charts when I forecast market trends. As far as I've observed over 50 years, price movement is caused mainly by arcane cyclical forces that color our perceptions of news. Is it not, therefore, reasonable to infer that the stock market's ups and downs create the headlines, not, as is almost universally believed, the other way around? A Bitcoin 'Tell' Far more interesting to me these days than the stock market's headless-chicken act is the spectacular bull market in gold. Prices have risen by 31% in the last two months, impaling Hidden Pivot targets as though they were as mushy as journalists' brains. Until recently, I'd assumed quotes were rising so steeply because gold, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, had glimpsed some horrible economic catastrophe ahead. However, there is a second possibility -- that gold is caught up in the
A short squeeze on Silver in the London market has pushed quotes easily past a Hidden Pivot target at 50.955 that had seemed ambitious less than a week ago. This has put the December contract on course for additional gains up to D=55.185 over the near term. Judging from the way buyers fist-pumped through the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 50.943, they are no worse than an 80% shot to achieve D sometime soon. In the somewhat unlikely event of a felicitous swoon over the next 3-5 days, belated buyers should position themselves with a 'mechanical' bid at x=48.820, stop 46.695. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10:35 a.m.): The fresh tout I put out last night at 10:20 p.m. (see above), nailed a quick, easy profit of $10,600 per contract. This graph shows how December Silver swooned overnight to a low at 48.75 that lay within 0.14% of the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. This means you would have endured no more than $350 of adversity to capture a gain of $10,600 (or an additional $3,300, for a total of $14,200, if you held out for the actual, overnight high at 51.160 that occurred somewhat above the red line). The 55.185 rally target remains valid as a minimum upside objective for the next two weeks.
I've put MSFT at the top of the list because it is about to provide the clearest test of whether a bear market has in fact begun. No matter how bearish one's outlook is for the stock market following Friday's stunning reversal, MSFT would trigger an irresistible 'mechanical' buy signal if it touches the green line (x=506.06), as seems likely. That doesn't necessarily mean the implied bounce will achieve d=547.12, effectively reviving the bull market. More likely in my estimation is that a weak bounce will carries no higher than p=519.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot. Whatever happens, the second most valuable company in the world cannot but reveal the health of the bull market, or lack thereof.
Sellers exceeded a compelling 'hidden' support at 6582 that I posted in the chat room on Friday, implying they will likely return in force this week. The reversal off a strong opening was unusually severe, even for a Freaky Friday, and I am therefore treating it as the possible start of a full-blown bear market. My reasons are detailed in the current commentary, but the grim technical implications are shown in the chart (inset). A 6.6% fall to at least p=6120.75 is indicated, but this is admittedly speculative, since the futures have not yet touched the green line (x=6466.50) to trigger a theoretical short. There is an alternative, minimum downside target at 6315.75 that we should monitor closely, but I have decided not to feature such half-baked scenarios because I believe Papa Bear has at last emerged from his lair after hibernating for 16 years. Incidentally, a voodoo number above 6300.00 will be worth bottom-fishing in any case, but since it is proprietary, I have posted it in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:45 p.m.): Check out my 4:45 a.m. post in the chat room for guidance on getting long in this vehicle, and then shorting it at 6741.50. I'd suggest a small-pattern trigger (a.k.a. 'camouflage') for the latter trade. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 11:10 a.m. EDT): The trade triggered and was quickly stopped out for a $700 loss per contract. Although the pre-opening, overnight high at 6741.00 missed my Hidden Pivot target by just two ticks, it thereupon became a 'number of interest' when the high sat for an hour-and-a-half to be anxiously contemplated by traders ahead of the bell. The most important takeaway here: ES was a good short only if it was cushioned by profits made en route to the target. The odds of catching a
After a cage fight with a 'hidden' resistance I'd flagged at 4178.00, the futures appear to be back on track for a rendezvous with 4128.10, an important target that has kept us confidently bullish for the last 300 hundred points of the rally. The 5020.20 target of an even larger pattern will be in play if 4178.10 is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact. The chart shows a minor 'reverse' pattern with an outstanding target at 4076.50. Although this falls somewhat shy of 4128.00, it shows that buyers are on a smooth glide path that featured a stress-free 'mechanical' buy on Friday at the green line (x=3987.30. If you've wondered how to get aboard with gold taking only quick, shallow breathers, this chart shows the way. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:38 p.m.): Bulls vaporized a 4128.00 target that had looked rock-solid last week, and now they appear to have a lock on a minimum 4196.10. Expect the target to be reached over the next 1-3 days. Beware of resistance at exactly 4168.20, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of A=3663.70, but once the December contract is above it, you can raise your expectations to at least 4273.30, or to 4378.40 if any higher. You can also use a pullback to 4063.00 to get long 'mechanically', stop 3957.00. The bullish pattern from which these numbers were derived starts with A=3660.50 on the daily chart on 9/18. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:19 a.m. EDT): The current upthrust overshot the 4378.40 target flagged above by just 0.3%, so it's hardly crazy to infer that a top of at least middling importance might be in or very close. You can use a 94.50 trigger interval to get short to test this theory on paper, but trade it only if you were long for at least a $10,000-per-contract
The 49.835 target I'd billboarded here caught a nasty top within millimeters, allowing subscribers to get defensive just ahead of a $3.26 downdraft. Now, use the pattern shown to keep in step. It signaled no fewer than three trades on Friday: short at the green line; long on the reversal from the red line (p=46.988), and 'mechanically' short again at x=47.804. That last trade has yet to touch 46.966, where half the short could be covered, and there is no assurance the position will be a winner. Indeed, if bulls seize the advantage as the week begins, they will likely negate the pattern with a very bullish push above C=48.620. Thereafter, use this pattern, with midpoint resistance at 48.828 and a 'D' target at 50.955. Don't pass up an opportunity to buy 'mechanically' if the futures pull back to x after a run-up to our sweet spot.
GDXJ's ballistic rally died midway between two middling targets at 104.25 and 106.84, respectively. A more important one lies at 111.59, and we are using it as a bull-market objective with the potential to stop buyers in their tracks. More immediately, you can play for a run-up to the 107.96 target shown in the inset. The pattern has yet to develop, since a 'buy' signal at the green line gave way to weakness on Friday that nearly stopped out the trade. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the moment nevertheless, implying p=103.21 can be used as a minimum upside objective when shares start to trade on Monday. If they fall on their face at the starting bell, slide 'C' down to the new low to create a fresh, usable pattern, even if it is beneath the current 'C' at 95.71 (10/2). _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:26 a.m. EDT): Like gold futures, GDXJ topped today close enough to a compelling Hidden Pivot target that it actually might be a decent short, assuming you've stuck with my 'insane' targets most of the way up and made some money . You can test this with a 1.70 trigger interval, but if the trade sevens out, raise your sights to a minimum of 118.08, since that's where this monster will be headed. You can also get long 'mechanically' with a 103.35 bid, stop 98.43. Good through Tuesday.
T-Bonds got a strong lift from Friday's panicky sell-off on Wall Street. TLT became a good bet to reach p=91.24, at least, but a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot, especially on first contact, would imply more upside to p2=92.63, and thence to as high as D=94.02 over the near term. Although the pattern is a conventional one with a 'C' low above 'A', it is sufficiently compelling to lend authority to the bullish case. Assuming D is achieved, look for stocks to continue lower, with hard selling in the institutionally driven lunatic sector (a.k.a. the 'Magnificent Seven') and in Bitcoin.
