Rick Ackerman

The stock market continues to waft higher with the riskless predictability of loaded dice. DaBoyz have trained their firepower on just a few high-flyers, chiefly Microsoft and Nvidia, in order to squeeze the broad averages skyward with an absolute minimum of capital. I've explained here before in exhaustive detail how this carnival midway trick is performed, beginning with a short-covering gap on most mornings that precipitously reverses overnight selling after it has dried up. Putting aside the fakery and tedium of the seemingly endless bull market, along with the Epstein saga and Trump's tiresome tariff antics, the most interesting story in the news last week was Tulsi Gabbard's tweets implicating Barack Obama in treason. Although Biden, frequently photographed slurping an ice cream cone, would seem to have a lock on Worst President Ever, it is Obama who will go down in history as the leader who did America the most harm, all of it deliberate. A Years-Long Coup Treason is not too strong a word here, although we shouldn't get our hopes too high that his punishment, assuming he is charged and convicted, will fit the crime. When he summoned Comey, Clapper and Brennan to the Oval Office on December 9, 2016, they had already stated publicly there was no evidence Russia had interfered in the 2016 election. Despite this, said Gabbard, Obama directed them to fabricate a new narrative asserting that the Russians had in fact worked behind-the-scenes to help Trump beat Hillary. The three men and their staffs proceeded to reverse their findings, said Gabbard. Then, two weeks before Trump took office, they "unveiled the new, Obama-directed politicized assessment, a gross weaponization of intelligence that laid the groundwork for a years-long coup intended to subvert President Trump's entire presidency." Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, said she has

The graph shown raises the bull-market target we've been using by 260 points, to 6689.25.  It is not a done deal like the lower target at 6429, since penetration of the midpoint resistance at 6250 was lazy rather than decisive. Even so, there is no instance over the past 16 years when raising our sights has turned out to have been overly ambitious, so we are just playing the odds. Currently, a swoon to the green line (x=6031), however unlikely, should be bought aggressively, but you needn't wait for it, since intraday swings are providing plenty of opportunities to get aboard. Some subscribers may be long from around 6244, predicated on a move to at least 6429. If you identify yourselves, I may be able to provide tracking guidance in the chat room.

Microsoft's deftly engineered short squeeze minutes before the opening bell on Friday slightly exceeded the 516.95 target we'd been using to stay confidently on the right side of a heavily overextended trend. The top was fleeting, volumeless and not just a little sleazy, creating a possible top that could endure for a while. Let's use the green line (x=483.95) as a minimum downside target for now. If it is touched, that would imply more downside to at least p=453.26 (the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support).

A crucial Hidden Pivot support at 83.53 doesn't look long for this world. Last week's dive came within 66 cents of it, but the bounce so far has been too feeble to suggest the uptrend will continue. But bulls would need to exceed July 10's 'external' peak at 87.05 to give this vehicle a fighting chance. I remain convinced, however, that T-Bonds are not far from a bottom despite the fact that Trump has been doing his utmost to turn them into shit. Perhaps it will take a full-blown recession to turn the tide for Treasurys? There doesn't appear to be one in the offing, but that could change quickly if stocks turn down hard for no apparent reason, as they always do at the onset of a bear market. Trump's daily flip-flops on Powell, however, are bullish for stocks, since he doesn't even have to fire the guy to strengthen the perception that tightening will be impossible on his watch.

The pattern shown looks too pretty not to work, and that means the futures are likely to fall to at least p=3276.40 (the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, shown as a red line) before they can attempt to surpass C=3389.30. True, the pattern lacks a one-off-point 'A'. But the well-formed A-B impulse leg, which exceeded two prior 'external' lows, more than compensates for this flaw.  Assuming the correction resumes in earnest this week, 3276.40 will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Alternatively, if bullion's canny handlers gut my bearish pattern by popping the futures above C=3389.30, I wouldn't get too excited, since gold's rallies have gone nowhere since April.

Bulls continue to lurch toward a 41.060 target while also whittling down a gold:silver ratio that had gotten egregiously out of whack when it poked above 100; it is now around 87.  You should regard the target as extremely likely to be achieved, given the ease with which buyers pushed through the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 34.751. The pattern is gnarly, and there is an alternative to the A-B impulse leg. However, its 'D' target was exceeded, and that's why I've switched to a more elongated A-B with a slightly higher target. Looking just ahead, you can try bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as six cents if the futures come down to 37.37.

I had intended to offer mainly 'mechanical' set-ups for futures contracts when I changed the core list of touts a few weeks ago, since entry instructions for this type of trade are usually relatively simple. However, because I could find no such set-ups on current charts, I am instead offering a reverse-trigger trade in the E-Mini Nasdaq, as follows:  Bottom-fish at the red line (p=23,127) using a trigger interval of 16 points. The low must occur within 4 points of the red line to be valid. If you do not understand this instruction, don't do the trade; there will be other, easier opportunities.  The trade is valid through Tuesday, and only if 23,233 has not been exceeded to the upside.  You'll be on your own if the order fills.  It may be possible to reduce entry risk even further by using a smaller trigger pattern taken from the lesser charts, but that is expert play recommended only to ace Pivoteers. _______ UPDATE (Jul 22, 10:55 a.m. EDT): This vehicle's nutty histrionics have altered the picture, although not the opportunity.  You can bottom-fish at 23,038, using the tightest reverse-pattern trigger you can find on the 15-minute chart. This trade is only for Hidden Pivot aces (aka Pivoteers.) _______ UPDATE (Jul 27): The little snark fell no lower than 23,108, missing our niggardly bid by just 0.3%. Cancel the order and stay tuned. I will offer a new trade, but only if it permits extremely tight risk control and exceptional odds for success. Any guru with a hole in his ass can get you into a trade that produces a profit eventually after an initial, horrific swing against you. That is not the way my trades are designed to work.

The easy move through p=115,845 still implies the pattern's 132,652 target will be reached, so we'll stick with it. That means you should trade with a bullish bias until then.  You can also bottom-fish in the not improbable event that Bitcoin swoons to the green line (x=107,442). The textbook stop-loss for the trade would be just below C=99,039, but it's possible to cut entry risk by as much as 95% by using a 'reverse-pattern trigger' fashioned from the 3-  or 5-minute chart.

Bitcoin shredded the 115,846 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown with such easy aplomb that more upside to the 132,652 'D' target is all but certain. The pattern is sufficiently gnarly that we can expect it to work for any and all purposes, including a 'mechanical' buy at x=107,442 (the green line) if BTC should swoon. Also, assuming you've been long on the way up, you can reverse the position and get short a D using a tight stop-loss fashioned with a reverse-pattern trigger on a lesser chart.