This week's chart gives the S&PS room to make a somewhat higher high before their inevitable collapse. My recent forecasts have brimmed with confidence that the end is nigh, especially now that a multitrillion-dollar AI investment bubble must be unwound. Even so, the stakeholders are some of the biggest, most powerful financial entities in the world, so we shouldn't doubt their ability to squeeze stocks higher against all reason and logic, the better to distribute as much horrifically overpriced stocks to the rubes as they can. The chart shows a 6704 bull market target that lies 10% above. However, because of the balky, drawn-out move through p=5961 midpoint pivot, a follow-through to the target is hardly a done deal. That's why I am forecasting that p2=6332 will mark The Top. It's also possible the broad averages will make their final highs here, midway between p and p2, although that would be an unusual place for such a spectacular bull run to end. For now, though, we'll trade with a mildly bullish bias until minor, uptrending ABCD patterns start falling short. The most immediate rally target of consequence lies at 6301, 234 points above. In the meantime, you can buy a pullback to 6036.25 'mechanically' with a 5947 stop-loss. ________ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:36 a.m. EST): The futures are unavoidably on their way down to exactly 5863.75, a Hidden Pivot obscure enough to work well for bottom-fishing. Your trading bias should be bearish at least until it gets there. Here's the chart.
The world's most important stock, supported by bombproof annual revenues approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars,+ has been trapped in a tedious range since July. Is it being distributed to widows and pensioners, or are the institutional geniuses who have held it forever simply marking time ahead of their next opportunity to mark it up? Whatever the case, it has been tightly controlled within a gently pitched channel that contains no breakouts or breakdowns. My gut feeling is that this is about to change with a gratuitous fall to 393.19, a voodoo number suited for aggressive bottom-fishing. I would suggest using a trigger interval no wider than 1.50 points, with the 'c' low planted within $1.00 or less of the voodoo.
There are two Hidden Pivot targets above: one at 116,807 that seems doable, and another at 144,586 that might seem a tad ambitious, even for a few Bitcoin hopheads and glue-sniffers over the age of 14. At the moment, however, it is on a 'mechanical' sell signal at 104,795 that could take it down to as low as 89,997 before this presumptive correction has run its course. The midpoint Hidden Pivot at 99,677 should be used as a minimum objective and a good place to cash out of half of any short positions initiated at the green line.
Last week's decisive breakout above the 2791.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart all but clinches a follow-through to at least p2=2905.30, and thence to an almost as likely D target at 3018.70. (The April equivalents are, respectively, 2927.40 and 3040.90.) A pullback in the meantime to the green line (x=2678, or 2700.30, basis April), however unlikely, would offer the juiciest 'mechanical' buying opportunity we've seen in a long while. More immediately, you should expect a potentially tradable stall at 2854.80 (2883, basis April), my minimum upside target for the near term. The usual imbeciles are attributing the breakout to Trump's tariff plans, whatever they might be, but also to a run on London bullion inventories by presumptive buyers in China and India, and to many other sovereign entities that evidently want to be prepared if this already-too-interesting world should turn still more interesting. There is as yet little evidence that the spike in demand for gold has fed into Bitcoin. True disbelievers in the latter's value and potential should consider betting the spread will widen, but don't expect Michael Saylor and his ilk to fade you till their heads cave in.
Silver's ascent last week was not as impressive as gold's, creating a minor divergence that seems likely to continue, at least for a short while. However, the March contract would trigger a mechanical buy if it falls to p=31.945 when trading resumes Sunday afternoon. Using a reverse-pattern trigger, risk no more than 1,50 cents on the entry, but be prepared for more slippage to d=30.970 if the trade fails. If this pullback exceeds 'd', it would imply silver will pull gold down rather than the other way around.
GDXJ's gap opening through a daunting midpoint resistance was not quite as impressive as Comex gold's simultaneous thrust, but it was persuasive nonetheless. The rally ran out of gas on Friday, but the way buyers handled p=48.39 suggests the pullback will not get very far before they are raring to go again. The earliest the turn could come would be from 47.57, the 'd' target of a=47.88 (1/24) on the daily chart. In any case, I'll reiterate targets that are theoretically in play, for the record: p2=51.65 and D=54.92.
I have outstanding projections as high as 5.5%, but the ponderous weight of supply just below 5% could conceivably put a lid on the bull move that began in March 2020 with covid. If rates fall to the red line (4.24%) as appears likely, price action at that midpoint Hidden Pivot will tell us whether they are headed still lower. A strong bounce would imply yields are about to resume their upward skew. However, if the downtrend crushes p=4.24%, or if TNX closes for two consecutive months below it, look for a further fall to d=3.67%.
The rally from mid-January's low may seem impressive, but don't expect much to come of it. The ascent has occurred in two discrete upthrusts, neither of which exceeded an external peak. The failure to do so was a matter of inches, but that's all the more telling since it demonstrated that bulls manifestly lack the vigor and conviction to generate impulse legs on the daily chart, let alone effortless ones. I'll remain skeptical until such time as TLT pops decisively above the 88.91 peak notched on December 20, then stays above it for two consecutive days. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 10:19 p.m. EST): I've been fighting off every bullish sign, but there is no denying the bullish implications of today's breakaway gap through a clear Hidden Pivot target at 89.81. Buyers will need to do a little better, pushing past the 90.99 'external' peak recorded on December 17, to demonstrate their new prowess, but that shouldn't be a problem given the power of today's move.
Some think the dollar's bull run is over because of Trump, but I doubt it. Trump is viewed by conservatives and libtards alike as the cause of just about everything these days, but let them try to explain why stocks keep going up even though everyone is so upset about his tariffs. A strong dollar threatens to crush an era of easy credit and make it painful for all who owe dollars to pay them back. The dollar's main source of strength is that the world simply cannot afford for the dollar to keep rising. It will undo all the assumptions that have made the 'wealth effect' the most popular invention in the history of civilization. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is in a so-far moderate correction from mid-January's 110.18 high. I expect it to come down to at least 105.99, but we should see a strong bounce from that number, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, if new highs are coming. Alternatively, an easy breach of the support would imply more slippage to as low as 101.78.
Crude has the distinction of being the nastiest, most uncooperative vehicle I track. It doesn't give a damn about voodoo numbers; its long-term, $20 swings are gratuitous, and it is the shameless bitch of the most heavily rigged market on earth. And just look at what a tease it's been, feinting for six straight days toward the p=71.73 midpoint Hidden Pivot in the chart. Ordinarily, I would bet the ranch bottom-fishing at that red line. However, the March contract's week-long avoidance of it has sapped its value. It could still work, but that's not the point; it absolutely would have worked if it had touched 'p' a week ago like it was supposed to. No one mentions crude in the chat room anymore, not even Artie. Time to scrape it off the home page? If I hear by Tuesday from 350 subscribers who want to save it, then by gummit it, save it I will! _______ UPDATE (Feb 7): I heard from, like, five subscribers, so here's a commensurately taciturn update that probably will still be the most simple, accurate and reliable forecast you're going to find on the internet. Having topped near $80 a few weeks ago, March Crude is midway into the obligatory $15-$20 decline that follows every big rally to wherever. If you plan to bottom-fish, use p2=67.90 or D=64.07 (a back-up-the-truck number from the daily chart, where A= 78.97 on July 5). _______ UPDATE (Feb 21): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
