GDXJ's easy thrust through 48.39, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, implies a strong likelihood that the rally will reach 54.92, a bull-market target of middling importance. The pattern also suggests that a pullback to 48.39 should be bought with a stop-loss at 46.21. If you know how, you should use a 'camouflage' trigger to cut the initial risk by as much as 95%. That would entail creating an entry trigger with an ABCD pattern extrapolated from the 15-minute chart or less.
I'm tracking Nvidia shares closely because they can tell us whether China's DeepSeek threatens America's lead in AI development. The Nasdaq-listed stock got pummeled a month ago when the Chinese revealed they were developing an open-source chatbot that can easily compete on performance and price with the most advanced models offered by OpenAI and other U.S. developers, including Elon Musk. Investors who have bet trillions of dollars on relatively costly solutions were so spooked by the news that they batted NVDA down to $113 not long after it had traded as high as $153. At the time, I said the stock would be an opportune short sale if it bounced from $113 to $140. It did so last week, hitting a recovery high of $143, but I'm no longer so enthusiastic about betting against the stock. It is the chart that has changed my mind, not the aggressive attack on DeepSeek by investors, analysts, pundits and scientists. They said China had spent considerably more developing the technology than they were acknowledging and that its smarts were extracted from Nivida chips the Chinese had purchased despite a U.S. embargo prohibiting them from getting their thieving hands on certain high-tech hardware. Eating America's Lunch So, who's lying? I doubt we'll get a straight answer from the news media since they are rarely up to the challenge of reporting on developments that seem to upset the status quo. The question remains crucially important nonetheless, since there are literally trillions of dollars of bets and side-bets on the relatively capital-intensive, proprietary approach that American-based companies have taken toward AI development. NVDA's stock chart is probably as good an answer as we'll get, since a graph cannot lie. In that regard, a move to new all-time highs above $153 would imply that America's edge
Ten-Year yields have been pounding on a 'hidden' support at 4.430% for more than two weeks, presumably getting ready for a drop to exactly 4.242%. A tradable rally from that Hidden Pivot support looks like an 80% bet, but if it eventually gives way, look for a further fall to 3.959% or even 3.675%. By all means, jot these numbers down if you care about where long-term interest rates are headed, since charts can predict them far more accurately than the dartboard guesses you'll get from Bloomberg's talking heads, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, the punditry, Fox Business News, MSNBC et al. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1): Rates have slipped beneath my initial target at 4.242%, closing last week at 4.231% off a 4.214% low. This implies that the downtrend is taking hold and could accelerate to fulfill the second target at 3.959%. It has also made achieving that target more likely. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 6:31 p.m.): Yields on the 10-Year Note took a strong bounce last week, but it wasn't sufficient to power through the gap created by Feb 25's downdraft. This will add to the downward weight of the chart, but I'd like to see a two-day close beneath the red line before I infer that more slippage to 3.959 has begun.
The chart shown provides little basis for determining with confidence whether long-term rates have peaked. We'll know better once we've seen the downtrend that began a week ago from 4.81% interact with midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4.24% (p, shown as a red line). It would take a decisive penetration of the line on first contact to imply not only that Ten-Year rates have put in an important high near 5%, but that they are headed under 4%, possibly to as low as 3.67%, in 2025. If so, it is likely the U.S. economy will be deep in recession by that time.
Bulls and bears have been in a tug-of-war since November that has looked more like accumulation than distribution. However, the failure of the S&Ps to break out to new record highs last week when exuberance over Trump's election was feverish implies stocks may need to sell off hard to get running room for the next big upthrust, assuming one is coming. I expect the implied correction to bring the March contract down to at least 5863.75 (daily, a=6107.50 on 12/26) before the futures find good traction..
The last time Bitcoin consolidated for a big leap, it took nearly eight months. The current consolidation is just entering its fourth month, so we shouldn't necessarily expect a significant move any time soon. Gratuitous swings will be tradable in the meantime, but not without diligent attention to the intraday charts. BTCUSD is on a buy signal at the moment that was triggered on Friday by a low that fell within a millimeter of a 96,673 Hidden Pivot 'p' support (60-min, a= 98,500 on 2/11). It can reach 100,393, especially if the uptrend penetrates a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 98,558 first. (60m, A=95,220 on 2/13). Please note that there are still two outstanding targets well above at, respectively, 116,807 and 144,586
April Gold stalled last week en route to an important rally target at 3040.90 that will remain viable if the futures don't slip beneath 2586. You should be prepared to bid or bottom-fish aggressively at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 2838,60, with a tight stop-loss or a small reverse-pattern trigger. If the expected pullback crushes the support, that would open a path down to as low as d=2708.60, equivalent to a correction of 8.7%. The futures would still have a chance to turn around at 2773.60, the pattern's 'secondary Hidden Pivot support'.
Silver quotes came down hard after an exhilarating run-up last week, trapping bulls and bears alike. I expect the selloff to hit 32.148 at least, but if that Hidden Pivot midpoint support is penetrated decisively on first contact, it would imply more slippage to 31.101, or possibly as low as 30.055. The chart shown displays an in-your-face head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish formation that is too ubiquitous and popular to be considered reliable. However, it does describe a distribution that has been occurring since June that will have created significant supply between here and new highs above October's 35.530 peak.
GDXJ's punitive reversal last week following a promising rally failed by two ticks to trigger a theoretical sell signal. It will likely happen in the next few days, however, sending this gold-miner ETF down to at least 48.25, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. As always, a decisive breach of the support on first contact would imply more slippage down to as low as the pattern's 'd' target -- in this case, 43.66. That is unlikely, but we'll be better able to assess the odds once we've seen sellers interact with p.
Trump promised everything but a cure for cancer during last Thursday's press conference, and there was no doubting his sincerity or his commitment to helping to shape a better world. Can he do it? One thinks of Teddy Roosevelt, who possessed seemingly limitless energy and zeal for taking on big projects, including building a national park system and the Panama Canal. Trump has big ideas too, and by all evidence the diligence to see them through. It was therefore disappointing that the stock market failed to show much feel-good energy on Friday. Chalk it up to Wall Street's cynicism toward politicians with big ideas other than large tax cuts. Investors, of course, will always be more concerned about Fed monetary policy. This suggests that Trump's successes, if they are going to have a major impact on the economy, will need to align themselves with the central bank's purposely beige and often murky agenda. For the present, however, any wonk, talking head or left-tilting economist is unlikely to 'get' Trump. Will the mainstream media, the political left, the academy, and a popular culture shaped by babbling ideologues like George Clooney, Jimmy Fallon, and Whoopi Goldberg eventually come around? it is encouraging that Meta's Zuckerberg was the first celebrity from the business world to kiss Trump's ring/ass. Although Zuck's $440 million gift to local election boards indisputably stuffed enough ballot boxes to swing the 2020 election to Biden, it was just business. He has demonstrated that he will sleep with anybody, including Trump, if the payoff is big enough. Facebook shares went vertical after Zuckerberg's White House visit shortly after the election, presumably because Wall Street sensed the company's karma was coming into alignment with Trump's America. The same could be said of Tesla's shares, as trust and friendship between Musk and
