The Trump rally reversed sharply after failing to achieve the secondary pivot (p2=6068.73) of the pattern shown. This is not a healthy sign, even if a 'mechanical' buy at the green line, stop 5725.50, looks very likely to produce a profit. That implies the futures will rebound to at least p= 5954.42 after falling to 5840.10, even if they don't eventually reach the pattern's 'D' target at 6183.04. The foregoing will have no bearing on the viability of the ambitious 7644.50 bull market target featured in last week's commentary. The E-Mini S&Ps' fall would have to exceed 3502.00 (!) to invalidate it. However, last week's developments demand that we pay diligent attention to lesser corrective patterns such as the one currently in progress. If there is a fatal weakness creeping into the long-term bull market, it will show itself first in ABCD patterns of minor degree.
Although MSFT has been treading water for months, the stock remains a crucial bellwether because of the company's enormous global footprint and the singular robustness of its revenue model, presumably even in hard times. Get Microsoft right, and your market forecast cannot go far awry. That's why we'll pay particular attention to small details -- at the moment, the stock's ability to convert into theoretical profit the 'mechanical' buy signal that triggered on Friday with the descent to the green line (x=413.45). This textbook set-up should produce a pop not merely to p=421.04, but to d=436.20. Any less would hint that all is not well and the stock is in distribution rather than consolidating for a shot at new record highs above July's 468 peak. A failure to achieve this was implied in my forecast back in August, when I began drum-rolling a target at 449.42 that would have left MSFT well shy of a new record. It topped at 441.85 and has been unable to improve on that since. We're about to see whether this failure portends deeper troubles for MSFT and for the bull market itself.
The ferocious but badly mistaken rally in the days after the election petered out as expected, giving way to a relapse that will soon test crucial support at p=88.01. That is my minimum downside target for the near term, but it is also where the brutal slide from mid-September's 101.64 peak could end. That would imply nothing less than the resumption of the bull cycle begun 13 months ago. I have adjusted p, as well p2 and D, downward to correct an erroneous coordinate used in my calculation of Hidden Pivot levels on the weekly chart. Respectively, they lie at 81.20 and 74.38.
I'd suggested paper-trading this vehicle by bottom-fishing with a $17 trigger interval. In theory, if gold's wrenching downtrend is about to reverse, the trade should produce an easy winner. In actuality, it stopped out the first opportunity and is in the throes of a profitable second. But the bounce, for starters, will need to exceed d=2608.50 to imply a recovery with the potential to achieve a new all-time high. My target above late October's 2801.80 record would be 2940.10. For now, though, we should look for the futures to work their way lower. If they fall to the green line (x=2497.50) of this pattern -- the one projecting to 2940 -- it would trigger a theoretically appealing 'mechanical' buy. In practice, however, it would be akin to catching the falling piano, and I am therefore recommending the trade only to subscribers who know how to pare the risk down to literal chump change. If the trade gets stopped out below 2350.00, wrecking the pattern, it would imply that bullion is not in a correction, but a bear market. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 1:22 p.m.): With an intraday high today of 2676, December Gold is enjoying a robust bounce from 2541, well above the worst-case low I’d projected above. This is bullish and puts the 2940.10 rally target credibly back in play. More immediately, my minimum objective for this so-far corrective bounce is 2724.00. That is a 'd' Hidden Pivot (a=2618.80 on 10/10) and a crucial point of resistance that will enable us to judge whether the rally is for real.
The 28.455 target of the reverse pattern shown started out as my worst-case correction target, but now it is probably the best we can hope for. The initial downside penetration of p=31.763 was decisive but not sufficient to make the d target a lock-up. It still isn't, but there's at least a 75% chance the futures will get there. The good news is that bottom-fishing at 28.455 is likely to produce a profit, even if the pattern is too obvious to engender a bounce precisely from that number, a Hidden Pivot support. If you're keen on getting short for the remainder of the ride, I suggest using rABC patterns on the hourly chart to set up 'mechanical' entry triggers. If you're curious about how this is done, stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.
GDXJ likely has further to fall, since it has been routinely exceeding the d targets of minor ABC patterns. It will have a chance to turn from 42.52, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, on the weekly chart, of a=51.92 (4-22-22). That will be an opportune spot to attempt bottom-fishing, although the precisely coincident low at 42.51 recorded in early September will make the trade tricky to execute. If it gets stopped out, expect more slippage to 37.18, where you can back up the truck and load it. That is the green line of the big pattern shown in the chart, and it is as pretty a place for 'mechanical' buying as you will find.
The headline on last week's commentary asked whether it might be morning in America, but the left's combative reaction to the drubbing they received on November 5 suggests we could be closer to high noon. We may know soon, since the forces of darkness are going full-tilt against Matt Gaetz, Trump's choice for Attorney General. Wikipedia, while discreetly neglecting to mention Hitler, trotted out a laundry list of dubious citations implying that Gaetz, a Florida Congressman, is a right-wing crazy, sex pervert and a deadbeat. In their dreams, perhaps, for he is actually an avenging angel, intent on rooting out every rat and cockroach in the Justice Department and ending the U.S. Government's increasingly common practice of arresting and imprisoning people because of their conservative political views. It would look suspicious if Deep State were to take a potshot at Gaetz after failing twice to bring down Mr. Trump with bullets. Whatever their plan, they'll have the pathetically diminished but as-yet-unhumbled voice of the New York P.O.S. Times to cheer them on. Here's the editorial page with a delusional take on the election that makes clear why the Gray Lady might not even be around in ten years: “Many Democrats were considering how to navigate a dark future, with the party unable to stop Mr. Trump from carrying out a right-wing transformation of American government. Others turned inward, searching for why the nation rejected them. They spoke about misinformation and the struggle to communicate the party’s vision in a diminished news environment inundated with right-wing propaganda.” Humble Beginnings On Wall Street, Trumpmania experienced a mild setback last week. However, because investors are too revved up to have second thoughts about anything, the feeble decline over five consecutive days should be attributed to the pull of gravity. Stocks were due for
The futures rallied somewhat higher than we might have preferred last week, generating a bullish impulse leg in the process. This implies that any sequence of trading strategies we employ should have a bullish component. That would take work, however, requiring us to pay attention to a vehicle that is painful to watch. Crude's price action is animated almost solely by clowns and thieves, so I suggest opting for the no-brainer trade, even if it takes a while to set up with a drop to 65.27 (see inset). That might not occur, but it is still the only trade we should be interested in at the moment -- a no-brainer with excellent odds and risk under very tight control. Plus, it will enable us to avoid taking crude's freakish price action seriously. Considering that this is the biggest commodity market in the world, its rigged behavior is a disgrace to civilization itself.
I've been confidently anticipating the Mother of All Tops since, like, around 1975, but this week I decided to go wholeheartedly with the flow. The result, technically speaking, is a robustly optimistic S&P target at 7644.50. This might not be what permabears want to hear, but it will leave bulls sufficient room to deal with their psychotic delusions once and for all before boom turns to bust. The rally would amount to 1600 points, or 27%, and come on top of an extraordinarily steep rally begun two years ago that has pushed valuations to near-record levels. Some would say the relentless uptrend has discounted whatever miracles Donald Trump could conceivably produce for the economy. Putting that question aside, his bullish impact already on the mood of America cannot be underestimated. For starters, Trump's plan to dismember Deep State sounds do-able, especially if Republicans retain control of the House. Click here to read all about how heads are actually going to roll. There is no precedent for taking on the embedded bureaucrats who have worked tirelessly for decades to wreck everything that is good about America. Sending these traitors to the gallows, so to speak, promises to be at the heart of Trump's domestic agenda. It will be interesting to see whether the ideologues who invent the news at the New York Times and the Washington Post eventually concede that Deep State even exists. They purport that it is a creature of right-wing paranoia, even though they have aggressively supported Deep State's reign of terror editorially for decades. Term-Limit 'Bonus' The President-elect's ten-point plan even includes full-on support for term limits. This issue should have become a bipartisan favorite, but for the fact that the left has been too busy hating Trump to get behind it. Now, it would seem, the
The Trump waft that began in early September turned into a full-blown short squeeze on Tuesday afternoon as rumor, anecdote and exit polls began to hint of a Trump victory. The rally steepened in after-hours trading and continued to gain altitude until the closing bell on Friday. It projected most immediately to 6130.50, but there is an even higher target at 6200.25 (see inset) that you should use as a minimum upside projection in the days ahead. It is an odds-on bet to be achieved because of the ease with which the 5962.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance was penetrated. I expect a tradable top to form there, but you should be familiar with 'camouflage' triggers if you intend to get short. Stay close to the chat room if you are interested in the trade.
