Rick Ackerman

The glue-sniffers who pushed the S&Ps an inch above July's record high on Thursday, only to recede from this precipice like frightened sandpipers from a rising tide, may never realize this was just the bunch of them staring at themselves in Wall Street's fun-house mirror.  This coy behavior was so predictable that we might wonder whether all of them made a bundle coming in short on Friday. Of course not. But they are certain to spend the coming week bumping into each other like a throng of mental patients locked in a small room. I'll be watching their burlesque over the next few days, so stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if you want a seat at ringside.

I've given the 449.52 rally target so much ink that it's probably time to fixate on a higher Hidden Pivot just in case. It lies at 464.76, which, because of its close proximity to July's 468.35 record, should not be expected to show precise stopping power. Still, it will lie in the bowel of what we should regard as the 'discomfort zone', just shy of the bullish breakout that nearly everyone will be expecting, Whatever hysterical price action this causes will assuredly be tradable, since it is all just impulse legs. However, I will be focused more attentively on movement above the old high, since that would create favorable psychological conditions for the kind of bull trap that wants to take everybody down with it.

Ordinarily, I'd suggest buying bitcoin aggressively if it were to fall to 47,051, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support in the chart shown, and also to use the red line as a minimum downside target. However, the uptrend looked pretty feisty as last week ended, and so we shouldn't rely on weakness to bring us bargain prices. If the opportunity should arise, though, a bid at 47,051 should be tied to a stop-loss at 41,954. If the order fills, I will provide updates to help you manage the risk. There are simple ways to cut initial risk by using lesser charts to fashion an entry trigger, so I'd suggest visiting the chat room for more-detailed guidance when appropriate. Meanwhile, a move above the 65,577 top of the bar I've circled would hint of a breakout and renewed upsurge. Upside potential over the next 4-6 months is 80,546. However, there will be risk down to 44,681, or even to 20,311, if sellers should decisively crack 47,051.

Crude's stab through the 69.61 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown all but guarantees more upside to at least 74.79.  This will once again repeat a cyclical phenomenon that has not failed in years: a bottom in energy quotes whenever prices at the pump fall to $3.  A cynic could almost believe oil's tiresome ups and downs are staged by a nefarious cabal to optimize their looting of the world's largest commodity market. Whatever the case, it trades like it's got the heebie-jeebies, an embarrassment not only to those who purport to regulate it, but to civilization itself.

The 2771.0 rally target we've been using for the October contract works out to be 2803.40 for the December. Price action at the 2576 midpoint resistance (p) has been sufficiently encouraging that upside to at least D looks like an 80% bet.  Since the initial upside penetration of this Hidden Pivot, the futures have remained above it, so far with little evident strain. It looks, feels and smells like a consolidation, and so our trading bias should remain aggressively bullish in the days and weeks ahead, particularly if Mr Slammy (i.e., the crooks, pederasts and devil-worshipers who manipulate the gold price) should attempt to frighten bulls with a gratuitous takedown.

No one mentioned the glow-in-the-dark rickism that had our next rally target at 31.730, below the previous one. Is anyone paying attention?  Apparently not, but I'll leave Silver on the list anyway, since, without it, I could no longer promote an affinity between Rick's Picks and bullion traders. The December contract looks bound for the 33.435 target shown, but let's wait till buyers punctures p2=31.798 before we jump to conclusions. Pivoteers, please note: There are some voodoo numbers along the way to get short, if only briefly.

GDXJ will need to surpass the two Himalayan peaks shown in the chart to cruise into thin air. The first lies at 51.92, the second at 55.79.  What are the odds? I'm not treating such a rally as a foregone conclusion, and that's why I've drawn a cautiously bullish 'trading pattern' toward the right-hand edge of the chart. It comes from a larger reverse pattern that has triggered theoretical short numerous times, each aborted at or near the midpoint support. We could use the one at 43.65 to bottom-fish if the opportunity arises, but it will need to be adjusted upward if this symbol goes above the so-far high at 50.36.

TLT got hit hard last week, all right, but not in the way I'd predicted. The selling followed a feint to 101.39, a few ticks above a peak recorded back in January.  Actually, the feint that ended the rally was the second, following another that had occurred a week earlier. Very tricky, indeed. However, the bottom line is that buyers have generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart. This means that however hard T-Bonds get wacked in the days and weeks ahead, the weakness should be viewed as corrective. My rally target remains 105.49, as previously given here, and a pullback to 91.88 should be bought aggressively, stop 87.33. A red-line 'mechanical' buying opportunity could also materialize at p=96.42; it would require a stop-loss at 93.39.

The stock market went bonkers following the Fed's first rate-cut since March 2020, but it's more than a little tempting to sell the news. A return to easing had been rumored for the last couple of years, but with a pitchfork mob threatening to descend on the Eccles Building, Fed Chairman Powell finally gave in to Wall Street. The mainstream media has given him cover with the lame story that lower rates will help spur employment. Historians are more likely to recall that the central bank's pivot toward lower rates came at a time when stocks were breaking out to new all-time highs, inflation was ravaging the middle class, and home prices were at record levels. Still, it's an election year, and what did we expect?  The Open Market Committee is simply revivifying the American Dream -- not with a scrawny chicken in every pot, but with renewed hopes of a leased Lexus in every garage. What will lower rates mean? For one, they could conceivably delay a crash in home prices and stocks for a while. It has been coming ever since the 2007-08 deflation failed to finish the job. At the time, one might have surmised that the nation's most popular and pernicious delusion -- growing rich simply by owning a home -- had suffered a fatal blow. Alas, whatever lessons the Great Financial Crash held for us were erased by a turbocharged recovery that has pushed home prices higher than ever. And stocks, too. Although Powell's steadfast hawkishness may have disappointed investors every month for the last three years, it did not impede the stock market's steep rise even slightly. Nor did it quell Congressional spending, which is currently adding $1 trillion of debt to the U.S. balance sheet every 100 days.  Historians will recall that statistic,