There were two good reasons for the June contract to have retreated from its recent high at 86.97. First was the daunting resistance from the 88.15 peak recorded nearly two years ago, and second was a coincident Hidden Pivot resistance at 88.31 that is shown in the chart. Together, with help from behind-the-scenes election-year manipulation, they stopped a move into the $90s that still seems all but ordained by the longer-term chart. In the meantime, the so-far moderate correction looks to be in no hurry to get traction. It suggests that quotes could be rangebound-to-lower until mid-summer (or so). Of course, there will always be the possibility of an exogenous event or even a black swan spiking prices outlandishly. Considering that Houthi missiles fired at tankers in the Suez caused barely a blip in quotes, however, we can assume that larger forces of supply and demand are in near-stasis at the moment and will continue to keep volatility subdued. _______ UPDATE (May 25): I'm updating with a chart of the July contract, but the comments above still apply. It has just breached a double support by dipping beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 76.48 and also May's 76.36 low. It has rallied as we might have expected, since crude is the champ of fake-outs that stop out everyone, but I doubt it'll get very far.
The white-collar thieves who manipulate bullion appear to be losing their grip. Silver bulls have long wondered how prices could languish even when demand for physical appeared to overwhelm dealer supplies. Blame paper proxies for precious metals, since many if not most investors would rather store and swap the stuff in virtual form than pay to insure it in a rented vault. Bullion bankers love it that way, since they can sit on actual bars and ingots, loaning them at interest, or borrowing them for next to nothing, while everyone else trades up a storm of near-gold and near-silver pledges and IOUs. However, the steep price rise lately has threatened to upend this arrangement by increasing demand for actual bullion. Ordinarily, the thieves, a sleazy cabal that includes some of the biggest banks in the world, have relied on 'Mr Slammy' to rescue them. He appears on the scene whenever they pull their bids and let prices plunge to relative bargain levels. Within the last month, we've seen downdrafts in gold of $80 and $130 respectively, and similar moves in silver. Unfortunately for the bad guys, prices have rebounded too quickly in each instance to allow them to replenish their doubly hocked inventories on-the-cheap. Short a Billion Ounces Now it looks like they're about to get creamed. Last week, July Silver broke out on the weekly chart with enough force to imply it will reach a minimum $37 an ounce. That would represent a 16% move on top of the already impressive 28% gain achieved since late March. The chart would seem to allow little respite for the bullion bankers. (If any of you ass-bandits are reading this, the 'hidden' resistance at 32.419 shown in the chart could be your last chance to get 'em back below $37. (Note: Just
Bulls will face a crucial test at 49.02, the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance shown in the chart. It is congruent with my outlook for gold and silver futures, which although sunny is not limitless. The target seems certain to be achieved, and your trading bias should therefore be aggressively bullish in the interim. This means naked-shorting puts is okay, provided you understand the risks and your account can handle it. Scalping against the trend would be warranted if p=49.02 is hit at the same time gold and silver futures reach their respective targets.
The armpit-sniffing monkeys who believe themselves to be in control of the markets seem to have forgotten what kicked off this too-steep rally. It was the uncannily well-timed announcement by AAPL of a $110 billion stock buyback a week earlier. Ironically, although AAPL appears to have stalled out with a relatively modest 6% gain on news they'd ginned up themselves to cover a faltering outlook, the S&Ps were as revved-up as ever last week, looking like they want to vault the previous all-time high at 5333.50 recorded on April Fool's Day. They made such dramatic progress toward that goal last week that I am not going to insist that the old high will endure. Even so, I will be on Defcon One alert to the possibility Mr. Market will set the hook for bulls and bears alike via an irresistible feint to marginal new highs. Buying power would be supplied mainly by short-covering, so look for signs that bears are getting shredded, defenestrated, mauled, tortured and impaled by oscillations near 5333.50.
The rally off the 389 low recorded on April 29 has exceeded just one 'internal' peak, meaning it is not impulsive, strictly speaking. It also left the stock well shy of the 430.82 high recorded on March 21. Subscribers will be familiar with that number by now, since it was first introduced in 2023 as a potentially very important rally target. I'll be interested to see whether the stock languishes well below the high even as the S&Ps push to a new record. We'll be on our guard in any case, prepared to short this little monster if it shows even subtle signs of topping. A reverse-pattern target at 421.63 still looks like our best bet for this to occur.
The June contract has been routinely generating buy signals on the intraday charts, but the upthrust that ended the week created a strong signal on the daily chart. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the green line (x=2352.40), more progress to at least p=2419.50 seems assured. That would leave the futures somewhat shy of the record 2448.80 recorded a month ago, but it would also 'magnetize' the peak to draw a test of resistance. We should pay close heed to price action at p, since a decisive push past it would put D=2553.80 solidly in play.
Silver stalled Friday precisely at the 29.00 midpoint of the bullish pattern shown. My gut feeling is that it will finish the week above this Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably bound for at least p2=30.37, and thence D=31.75. These are relatively modest targets in comparison to longer-term charts that show upside potential to 36.03 and higher, but we'll take them one at a time, the better to keep risk under tight control as we augment and hedge positions on the way up. If you're keen on trading this vehicle, please be vocal about it in the chat room.
Rather than speculate on whether this vehicle will push above mid-April's 44.70 peak, I've drawn a chart that you can use to trade it knowledgeably. Friday's weakness triggered a theoretical sell signal with downside potential to as low as d=41.47. However, the pattern can be used to bottom-fish at any of the three levels yet to be achieved: p=42.92, p2=42.24 and d. In each case, you should get long with a reverse-pattern trigger that comes from the lesser intraday charts. There's a possibility the downtrend will turn from p=42.92 and go on to surpass the 44.26 high. That's why some call options acquired at p should be held for a possible swing for the fence.
Bertie has seemed too feisty lately to be prepping for a capitulation down to the 54,131 target shown. However, the pattern has been working perfectly in all respects, and the effortless downside penetration of p=60,692 on first contact strongly implies that 54,131 will eventually be achieved. The pattern also telegraphed a 'mechanical' short from x=63,973 that delivered a straightforward, anxiety-free gain of about $3,300 in just four trading days. All things considered, we'll use p2=57,411 as a minimum downside objective for the time being.
Although there is no publicly traded company called Pirate's Treasure, the impressive price history displayed in the chart above is real enough. The Canadian company holds royalties to five gold mines that could conceivably rank among the largest in the world someday, according to 'Spartacus', a Rick's Picks regular known for his street savvy, his encyclopedic knowledge of the mining world, and his insightful posts in the chat room. The stock is a classic 'be right, sit tight' winner, he says, and enviable profits will be made by investors patient enough to play the waiting game. If you want to find out the real name of 'Pirate's Treasure', and of similarly promising stocks that are routinely discussed in the chat room, click here. This will give you free access to all the features and amenities of Rick's Picks, including provocative commentary and actionable 'touts' for such popular vehicles as the E-Mini S&Ps, crude oil, gold and silver futures, the Dollar Index, TLT, bitcoin, Microsoft and Apple. Put and call options are a specialty, with occasional 'Friday jackpot bets' intended to at least double or quadruple one's stake in an hour or less. (Certain caveats apply, as noted in the disclaimer below.) There are also two chat rooms that draw some of the best traders in the blogosphere. One of them is devoted mainly to timely trading ideas; the other, a 'coffee house', to more freewheeling discussion. Fahrenheit 430.58 Technical forecasts in the touts section are often precise-to-the-penny, but also intuitive. There is MSFT, for instance, which has served lately as our #1 bellwether for the bull market. We predicted in a headline last year that a 430.58 high in the stock could signal the end of the grandaddy of all bull markets. This forecast is still viable and could prove
