Rick Ackerman

More slippage to at least D=22.04 looks unavoidable, given the way sellers obliterated the midpoint support (p) early Friday morning. This Hidden Pivot lies close enough to a cluster of obvious lows recorded in mid-October near 21. They look incapable of arresting silver's fall for long, implying a further fall to October lows near 21 in search of traction. There's a Hidden Pivot support at 21.69 you can use for purposes of precise bottom-fishing (daily, A-23.24 on 10/20). _______ UPDATE Nov 14, 8:07 p.m.): The futures trampolined higher after briefly dipping below the 22.04 Hidden Pivot noted above. Now, if they can shove past p=23.44 of this pattern, they should be presumed bound for D=24.95.

The clock ran out on GDXJ when it was in the throes of a snapback rally following a dip beneath two 'internal' lows recorded around Halloween. The day ended in a 'discomfort zone' bounded by the lows and another at 32.05 from October 12.  That makes it tradeable, but not by way of easy instructions that I could proffer a day in advance. However, if you're proficient at fashioning reverse triggers, you can try a 37-cent trigger interval from any low that falls in the range 32.15-32.44. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:15 p.m.): GDXJ blasted off with a gap opening, denying us, and nearly everyone else, a chance to get long. That could give the rally a little staying power, although I doubt it will get very far due to the two previous failures to poke above mid-September's 36.14 high.

Each new thrust has been impulsive, surpassing two prior peaks as required by our rules. This is a reliable sign that the bull move begun from 82.42 three weeks ago is healthy and not losing strength. The next leg up will be more challenging, however, since the nearest peak needing to be surpassed lies well above, at 96.54. Buyers will be well fortified for the task, however, given their demonstrated ability to handle lesser peaks with ease. ______ UPDATE (Nov 24): No sooner do I tout the bullishness of TLT's easy move through prior peaks than it narrowly fails to exceed a small but daunting one at 91.61 recorded on September 22. This is not necessarily the death knell for the impressive bull move from October 23's 82.77 low, but the apparent change of heart warrants close monitoring. The selling would need to hit 86,73 to generate a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, probably killing the nascent bull. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:54): The small but technically significant 'look-to-the-left' peak at 91.61 shown in this chart is crucial to the intermediate-term picture. TLT looks ready to hurdle it, which would imply more upside over the next several weeks to as high as the 97.05 peak recorded in late August  

The dollar spent the week recouping half of the previous week's losses. The bounce came, however, from six cents above a 104.79 low that I'd characterized beforehand as the weakest possible correction. Expect a resumption of a powerful bull trend that will take DXY most immediately to 112.14, and thence to 124.79. Both of these Hidden Pivots were identified here last week and remain our price objectives for the intermediate-to-long-term.

U.S. shares continued to climb a wall of well-justified worry last week, propelled with sufficient vigor to suggest new all-time highs are likely.  Notice how Microsoft's push into record territory on Friday occurred after the stock had spent nearly six months consolidating at the red line. This is a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot', according to our proprietary method of analysis, and MSFT's decisive move above it has freed the stock from its gravitational pull. This is significant, because as long as Microsoft shares are moving higher, the broad average will follow in their vortex. This is no longer true of AAPL, which until recently was our most important global bellwether for stocks. Although it is still the most valuable company traded on any exchange, sales growth for the near-to-intermediate term is no longer assured. That's because iPhone sales have encountered strong headwinds in China and are certain to falter in the U.S. when -- not if -- the economy enters a recession. One has already begun for many Americans, most recently the 10% of Citicorp's workforce about to be laid off, as well as tens of thousands of workers scheduled for termination at 3M, Tyson Foods, Lyft and Whole Foods. Even Walmart is laying off 2,000 warehouse workers across several states. Rock-Solid Revenues Microsoft will not be inured to the effects of a slowdown, but selling Windows and Outlook software on a subscription basis that requires annual renewals will continue to help insulate the company from economic downturns, even if severe. For that reason, Microsoft should be regarded as the bluest of blue-chip companies, a profit engine even more powerful and reliable than Apple.  The chart shows a bull-market target for MSFT at 430.58 that implies a 16.5% leap from the current 369.97. In comparison, to achieve new record highs the

Last week's succession of breakaway gaps was solidly impulsive, having exceeded the required two peaks, one internal, the other external. But in failing to go the extra inch it would have required to get past a third, the 89.49 high from September 29, bulls hinted they are slightly timid about going for the gusto. They could change that with a renewed push this week that takes out the untested peak, but the task will have been made more difficult by the sharp relapse that occurred following the fleeting high. Bottom line: the picture for T-bonds has brightened, but we shouldn't assume THE bottom is in.

Last week's decline was the sharpest in four months and could conceivably come down to the 102.23 target shown, That would amount to an approximately 5% correction, entirely normal considering the steepness of the run-up from 100 to 107 that occurred between mid-July and November. A milder correction that reverses from p=104.79 would underscore the power of the renascent bull market begun from 90 in 2021.  Wherever and whenever the pullback ends, upside potential thereupon would be to p=112.14 of this pattern most immediately, and to 124.70 ultimately. It is no exaggeration to suggest that a dollar at that height will have drastically altered the global economy and its fatally financialized infrastructure.

DaBoyz demonstrated with last week's unrelenting short squeeze that they mean business. It was made possible by nervous anticipation of a global war starting in the Middle East. Although this remains an all-too-real possibility, it is exactly the kind of thing Wall Street loves to ignore: a potentially world-ending wall of worry that features a billowing mushroom cloud. For purposes of predicting the extent of this wack-o rally, I see no Hidden Pivot patterns as useful as the round number 4500. That's where this hoax is headed, and because it lies within less than two points of a voodoo number, we might look forward to getting short up there.  Trading with the trend in the meantime is bound to be challenging, since everyone else will be trying to do it, too. I am not yet ready to consider the possibility of new all-time highs, but 4500 can serve for the time being as a minimum upside target.

The stock's handlers, undisputed geniuses of the Einsteinian buy-and-hold strategy, did so well keeping AAPL aloft last week that we should assume they can keep this short squeeze going for at least another week or two. They did after all trick investors into stupidly shrugging off the implosion of iPhone sales in China, a remarkable obfuscation that demands our respect. Accordingly, I'll suggest using a voodoo number at 186 as our minimum upside target for the next two weeks. The stock will first need to fake its way above the 182.34 'external' peak recorded on October 12, but that is hardly an insurmountable problem for world-class thimble-riggers who have mastered the art of producing volumeless leaps whenever they need a big rally and there are few actual buyers around.