Bitcoin’s poke last Thursday above a 102,355 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ has shortened the odds that it will reach the 130,189 target. (Note: Because of a change in my coordinates, these numbers differ slightly from the price points given here earlier.) Moreover, a pullback to x=88,362 (the green line), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 74,419. Let’s wait and see how easily and/or decisively the upthrust exceeds p on first contact. Two consecutive weekly closes above it would all but clinch more upside to at least p2=116,247.
At the risk of being premature, I've used the weekly chart's breach of a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 56.30 as evidence that crude is likely to be trading lower in the weeks and months ahead. This is like trying to call Arizona's election an hour after the polls close, but in any case, sellers' ability to penetrate the support is surely not a sign of robust health. Even now, a rally to x=60.57, the green line, would trigger a mechanical short, stop 64.85. There is no way to estimate how long it will take for this to play out, but in the meantime, we should trade even the rallies with a bearish bias. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:43 a.m.): I now see that the short noted above had already triggered at x=60.57 when I posted the tout. I will track the trade nonetheless, using the suggested 64.85 stop-loss. The worst-case target for this gambit is 47.87, a conventional 'D' target where A=69.93 (4/3) on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 2:59 p.m.): I've been bearish or indifferent toward crude for so long that it has become a habit to predict generally lower prices. That said, a fist-pump through 65.78 would grab my attention, since it would indicate more upside to as high as 76.89. I doubt this will happen, but it's always better to be prepared if it does.
We should know soon whether Silver's mini-explosion upward, the second in three months, is just another false start. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, the selloff of the last two weeks is not as bearish as it seems. It triggered an attractive 'mechanical' buy on Monday when it touched the green line (x=86.95). This implies that a bounce will reach p=89.91, at least, before it can stop out bulls with a dip beneath c=85.00. Whether it can muster a finishing stroke to d=92.81 depends on how easily buyers penetrate p on the next rally. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:50 a.m.): Bulls held on by a hair when TLT dipped last week to a bottom just 20 cents from the 85.00 point 'c' low of the ostensibly bullish pattern detailed above. _______ UPDATE (May 25): TLT popped a wheelie at an 83.66 voodoo support, but don't expect the bounce to get legs. The low occurred just inches shy of a chasm beneath the watershed low recorded in October 2023 at 82.42. It is too obvious a place for a good bottom to form, nor do T-Bonds much respect 'technical' tops and bottoms. For now, all we can do is watch.
[The S&Ps are losing steam after recouping two-thirds of their 1400-point loss in March/April. The stall near 5700 has left them hovering in the danger zone, just like the U.S. economy. Will it skirt recession? I have my doubts, even if price action on the S&P chart on April 7 led me to speculate that business would continue to hum along. The index had bottomed slightly above an important Hidden Pivot target at 4820, and so it was no stretch to infer that this may have marked the end of the bear market. Without the chart, though, it's hard for me to imagine that America will skate past recession. A real estate crash is coming, and it's only a matter of time before its mounting weight overwhelms whatever miracles people expect from Trump. His tariff announcements, to the extent they can be construed as bullish for stocks, have lost their ability to affect securities markets for more than an hour or two. He did a deal with Great Britain last week, spinning it as the first of many. That story will not distract anyone from the only deal that matters, however -- with China. No one could be optimistic that President Xi Jinping will be an easy touch, so don't be surprised if stocks take a header this week. Meanwhile, the commentary below will continue to run until an S&P breach of 4820 proves my bullish thesis wrong. RA ] *** A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy: tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is
The slimeballs who manipulate this stock for a living made full use of a short-squeeze opportunity when Microsoft announced earnings after Wednesday's close that unsurprisingly surpassed estimates. What could bears have been thinking?? DaBoyz kicked off the celebration with a $40 rally after the close, then worked their criminal magic again on Friday's opening to hoist the stock a further $10. Realize that no stock changed hands during the spectacular first stage of this maneuver, and only a relative handful of shares traded on the second. The result was an approximately $317 billion contribution to the financial realm's gaseous 'wealth effect'. Most of it came in mere nanoseconds, since that's how long it takes to create an enormous gap on a chart. This is a feat that mere bullish buying could never have hoped to achieve. It required mainly the arrant stupidity of shorts, who dependably acted as though the risk of getting blown out of the water was negligible. If I had to guess where MSFT, financialization's chief instrument for adding fake money to the system, is headed, I'd say to xxx.xx. I don't want to queer the bold, Hidden Pivot magic of this number, so I'll post it only in the chat room.
The futures ended the week a hair shy of a 5736.00 target I'd posted in the chat room. This would have merited an aggressive short if the target had been hit, ideally with at least 90 minutes remaining in the session. Alas, we'll have to reserve these ambitions, since it will be a new game when the futures start to trade again ahead of Monday's opening. The target is still shortable, but squeezing off the trade could be harrowing in the thin-volume nervousness of Sunday evenings. If the June contract blows past 5736.00, be prepared to short the next target aggressively, a Hidden Pivot 'd' target at 5867.00.
A faint glimmer of hope appeared last week with DXY's subtle poke through the 'd' target of a minor reverse pattern. It isn't much to celebrate, but the fact that the rally even made it to 'D' implies something may have changed, since the last time this modest feat succeeded was almost a year ago. To gauge its significance, we'll need to monitor retracement patterns closely, since they should have trouble exceeding p if the dominant trend has in fact changed. The first in evidence, on the 30-minute chart, not only exceeded p, it topped at the 'd' target of a minor rABC on Friday (a=99.70 on 5/1 at 7:30 a.m.).
I used a tiny one-off high to draw the pattern shown, but three confirmations at p suggest it will produce only winning outcomes for us. That would imply that a drop to D=3174.50 should be bought aggressively, albeit with the obligatory micro-stop possible using a 'camo' trigger. One thing the chart does NOT say is that June Gold will necessarily reach the target, since the initial penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot was anything but decisive. Notice, however, that it delivered a profitable 'mechanical' short - three of them, actually - and that's usually a tip-off that D/d will be reached. We don't much trade 'conventional' patterns any longer, but this one, with its crazy point 'a' and asymmetry, seemed ripe for exploitation. _______ UPDATE Apr 6, 5:52 p.m.): As the chart makes crystal-clear, June Gold is headed most immediately to 3472.7, the ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ of the pattern shown. It can be shorted there, but only with a delicate stop-loss, since the futures will be on their way to 3736.00 in a trice if they blow past the midpoint resistance without hesitation. You could always try shorting up there, but wouldn’t it be far better to shove your accursed doubts aside for once and catch an almost certain 300-point rally?
July Silver has tripped a theoretical sell signal at 32.110 tied to a D target at 26.405. I doubt it will be that bad, but we should still be prepared for a fall to the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 30.210. We'll make that our minimum downside objective for the near term while planning to bottom-fish there with entry risk under tight control. Because of the way the pattern is constructed, with a somewhat unconventional 'A' and a 'p' Hidden Pivot in the middle of nowhere, a dip to p would provide an exceptional opportunity to bottom-fish. This will obtain unless the futures reverse and pop above C=34.015.
GDXJ is just an inch from touching down at the 57.53 Hidden Pivot target shown. The pattern looks too obvious to work precisely, but it is also sufficiently compelling to all but guarantee a tradable turn from somewhere near 57.53. This usually means that catching the low on a chart of lesser degree will endure a stop-out or two before the vehicle reverses and does what it is supposed to do: make you money. A decisive penetration of 'd', especially on first contact, would be quite discouraging, but I doubt we'll see it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6): I first mentioned a 72.23 target two months ago when GDXJ was trading in the mid-50s. The target still looks all but certain to be achieved, especially with the recent breach of a 64.23 midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with an even higher target at 111.59 (!) Further attesting to the power of the rally, the thrust exceeded the watershed high at 65.95 recorded in August 2020. Although a stall at 72.23 should be expected, GDXJ would be signaling a potentially ballistic move to 111.59 if it punches through the lower resistance easily. The pattern yielding these targets is compelling, implying that a top of some importance could occur at 111.59. Here is the graph I'm using to get a confident handle on this vehicle. The data go back to 2009, the year in which GDXJ was listed.
