November Crude has pulled back sharply after topping last week a hair from the 94.76 Hidden Pivot target billboarded here. The weekly chart not only allows for another burst higher, most immediately to the 98.65 target shown here; it can also be used to project a blowoff to as high as 117.22. Indeed, there is nothing unreasonable or illogical about this interpretation. Moreover, one could reasonably infer that the decisive penetration this month of p=90.67 has already made a move up to 117.22 no worse than an even bet. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 10:56 p.m.): The correction targets 87.20 most immediately, but an easy breach of this Hidden Pivot support (90-min, A= 95.02 on 9/27; B= (90.35 on 9/29) would imply the correction has farther to go.
TLT has turned higher because it is synched with a 4.81% target for the Long Bond that was precisely achieved last week. However, there is room for another leg up, to 4.98%, and therefore room for TLT to fall commensurately to the 80.84 target shown in the chart. TLT's rally should be tradeable nonetheless, and some subscribers have jumped on call options suggested by 'Spartacus' in the chat room. Implied volatilities are running at least a third higher than historical, so the bet will face some headwinds no matter what happens. It is not encouraging that the rally from Thursday's 87.10 bottom, steep though it was, could not push impulsively past last Wednesday's 89.62 'external' peak. Here's the chart.
The futures finished the week with a whoopee cushion rally that allowed subscribers who got long the day before to come away with a profit of as much as $3,000 per contract. The pattern, with a 4462.25 rally target, remains intact for next week, provided the E-Mini can hold above the 'C low at 4277.00. After topping on Friday, it came down hard, giving up all the day's gains and settling near the green line (x=4323). This generated a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal for a presumptive second shot at p=4369, but I would not have advised it so close to the final bell. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 8:13 a.m.): The futures are struggling to hold above d=4299 of the small reverse pattern shown in this chart. If this 'hidden support' fails as I expect it to, the December contract should be presumed headed to D=3956 of the larger pattern. It is gnarly but not illogical.
Although AAPL's fall to the 164.90 target (see inset) was all but ordained two months ago when hard selling crashed the midpoint support at 181.57, the stock's handlers have made it an ordeal for bears to profit easily. Shorting 'mechanically' on the squeeze up to 189.90 worked well, and I expect bottom-fishing at 164.90 to be a money-maker too, since the pattern is not very obvious. The rally would have the potential to hit 182, but I'll suggest using a trigger interval of $1.50 to get long. If you are unsure about how to do this, ask in the chat room for guidance when appropriate.
The Dollar Index came down hard last week after topping to-the-exact-penny at a 106.84 target that had been advertised here. The rally was due for a rest, but I doubt the peak will endure for long. The ABCD rally pattern shown should help us gauge the health of the dominant uptrend. If DXY achieves D=106.64 without providing any single- or two-level pullbacks for a 'mechanical' buy, that would affirm that pent-up demand for dollars remains strong. This is going to create big problems for the world's financial system, particularly for debtors who owe dollars, and for a central bank that remains committed to tightening.
Gold is close enough to the depths of despair that we might hope for a rally. However, since hoping is for losers, we'll just watch and learn to like it as the futures swirl down the crapper. Ordinarily, Friday's slight overshoot of D=1865.20 would be no cause for alarm, but in this case we'll infer the worst -- i.e., that the support should have held if gold were ready to turn. If you want a slim reed to grasp, use the 1855.40 target of this gnarly pattern. It's okay to back up the truck there, but only if you use a very tight stop-loss. (Note: I have not boldfaced and colorized the target because I don't want to draw attention to it.) _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 9:19 a.m.): The $7 rally from within less than a dollar of the number given above would barely have paid for a Soho lunch, although the very tight trigger interval (TI) I'd advised would have prevented a loss. The subsequent relapse means gold is still in gold-is-garbage mode. A little overdone, don't ya think? _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:07 p.m.): The futures look bound for the 1777.10 target of the reverse pattern shown here. I am awed by the viciousness with which the bullion bankers and their scummy friends in high places have defenestrated, drawn-and-quartered, impaled and flayed those who might have intended to take delivery on September COMEX contracts. When there's no 'physical' available to supply, Their solution is to crush demand.
Putting aside the depressing question of how low Silver could go, the 21.75 downside target of the pattern shown is pulsating with opportunity. It's the legit (i.e., non-sausage 'B' low) that brings this picture together. I have not boldfaced the target (or a similar one in gold) because I don't want to queer its potential magic for purposes of bottom-fishing. The daily chart requires a large trigger interval of 37 cents, but I'll suggest looking for a smaller 'natural' trigger on, oh, the 15-min chart when the futures get within 25 cents of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:28 p.m.): This chart shows how the trade suggested above could have produced a $1,200 win on four contracts going against today's overwhelming downtrend. The 'natural' trigger shown was the only available choice, and it yielded an interval of 5 cents. However, the trade was signaled at 6:15 a.m., well before the regular session began, and many of you have been asleep.
GDXJ was headed higher when the week ended, but the chart suggests this was no reason to celebrate. Although a strong rally to the green line would set up an appealing 'mechanical' short, I doubt it will get there. That means we could try to squeeze off the short at the red line, a type of trade we don't do that often. The stop-loss would be at 34.87, calculated by taking a third of what we stand to gain if this vehicle eventually drops to D= 30.36. Eagle-eyed Pivoteers might notice that the impulse leg is not strictly kosher, since the would-be 'external' low at 34.04 recorded on March 16 is in the shadow of June 29's 33.95 low.
Price action last week in the charts of three bellwethers suggests that this year's 'October surprise' could arrive right on schedule and that it could be a doozy. The first shows the dollar's so-far shallow correction off a minor Hidden Pivot rally target. This portends yet more strength, threatening to turn Powell's tightening regime into a globally ruinous debt deflation. Second, rates on the 30-Year Bond topped at 4.81%, precisely matching the prediction featured here last week. And now let me add this detail: If yields pop above 4.81%, they should be presumed headed for exactly 4.98%, a top that I regard as very unlikely to be surpassed. Interest rates presumably would fall thereafter -- for a long, long time -- discounting a weakening economy bound for, if not depression, then at least a very severe and prolonged recession. Don't expect falling rates to stimulate economic growth, since asset values will be falling even more steeply. That means rates will actually be rising in real terms, as occurred during the nearly fatal debt deflation of 2007-08. One of the updated charts packed quite a surprise: NYMEX Crude. We've been quite bullish on oil since early this year, when quotes were lingering around $72/barrel. However, the rally turned unusually steep in May and hit a high last week at 95.03 that fell a few dollars shy of a $98 target we'd been using as a minimum upside objective. This prompted a look at a longer-term chart. Lo, the weekly bars imply an impending run-up to $117 a barrel. Moreover, last week's decisive move through the pattern's Hidden Pivot midpoint at 90.67 implies that a surge to $117 is no worse than an even-money bet. Could this mean that a long-anticipated war in the Middle East is about to break about?
I've been bullish on the dollar since...forever, always rationalizing my bias with a deflation-based argument. However, Tom Luongo's latest newsletter provides a simpler answer, at least for the near term, to wit: Fed chairman Powell and Eurobank President Christine LaGarde are in a policy battle that the latter can't win. Although Power undoubtedly is serious about staying tight, LaGarde has gone wobbly out of fear that Europe's already faltering economy could go down the tubes with another turn of the screw. We'll be betting aggressively on Powell, and therefore a strengthening dollar, in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned to the chat room (and to your Rick's Picks email 'Notifications') for timely strategic guidance. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 6:40 p.m.): We've been using a Hidden pivot at 106.32 as a minimum upside target, hut here's a pattern I like even more that projects to 106.84. As always, an easy move through it would imply the uptrend is likely to continue. _______ UPDATE (Sep 27, 3:41 p.m.): Following a steep upthrust in the early going to exactly 106.84, DXY head-butted the Hidden Pivot several times before turning sharply lower. 'Where to next?' will depend on how impulsive the pullback is and how long it lasts, but we can read the trend accurately (and, perforce, profitably) in real time as the retracement lengthens on the lesser charts. The target was two months in coming, so it should not be a pushover. If it is, that will be telling us the uptrend is, and remains, quite strong.
