Rick Ackerman

AAPL's big bounce in August may have added tens of billions of dollars to the macro ledger for a short while, but September's symmetrical decline has taken it all back. The stock still appears bound for D=164.90 of the pattern shown, equating to a 17% decline from the 198.23 high recorded in early July.  Since Apple shares have been an infallible bellwether for the stock market as a whole, we'll want to pay close attention to price action when 164.90 is hit, which it eventually will be.  If the Hidden Pivot support is decisively exceeded, it would imply more downside is possible to as low as 146.25, a Hidden Pivot support derived from shifting 'A' up to last August's 176.15 peak.

The futures came down hard enough on Friday to suggest there must have been an interesting reason, but the chart suggests it was just tiredness. In fact, if the December contract were to fall just a little further to the green line (x=4454.25), that would generate a weak 'mechanical' buy signal.  I would expect a profitable, one-level bounce, at least, but whether buyers could summon the additional power needed to achieve D=4623.75 remains to be seen, especially since our standby market bellwether AAPL could already be in a bear market. ______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 8:22 p.m.): The fraudsters who work this gaff have been so unimpressive lately that I'm cancelling the 'mechanical' bid at the green line, since it no longer promises an edge.

Gold is in an obligatory bounce from the green line (x=1934.00), and any long positions initiated there would be showing a paper profit of around $4400 on four contracts. The futures would need to hit p=1954.30 to signal a partial exit, but bulls looked sufficiently energized to accomplish this when trading resumes Sunday evening. I have my doubts that the run-up will reach D=1995.00, though, in part because the turn from the recent low looked too agonized. Regardless, 1995.00 is theoretically in play and would become an even better bet if the rally impales the midpoint Hidden Pivot on first contact. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 9:17 p.m.): The textbook 'mechanical' buy that triggered a week ago at x=1934.00 has gone on to produce an $8000 gain for anyone who did the trade. It is time to realize half of your profits now, since the futures this evening have touched the red line (p=1954.30) as anticipated. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 8:20 p.m.): The vicious bull-trap stab this morning to 1069 was short-lived, but it gave anyone still long an opportunity to exit with an additional $1800 for each contract still held. If you kept 25% of the original position for a swing at the fence, I'd suggest an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 1943.70 for now.

Silver finished the week on an upstroke, but the pattern that produced it may be too obvious to sustain the steep trajectory. The low occurred just a tick or two beneath mid-August's 22.58 bottom, implying the turnaround was just bulls and bears scaring themselves into action. That's nearly always good for a pop, since the former were stopped out and no longer on board to slow down the rally. The pattern should work for bottom-fishing a swoon to the green line (x=22.83) 'mechanically', but we won't be able to judge buyers' enthusiasm until such time as they interact with the 23.67 target of the rABC pattern. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 8:41 p.m.): Here's a mildly bullish chart to help you leverage Silver's churlishness.  Because today's nasty reversal did not quite reach the red line on the upswing, I cannot recommend a 'mechanical' buy if its fall hits the green line. 

GDXJ is all but certain to rally to at least 36.78, the D target of the pattern shown. Bulls clinched that outcome on Friday when they blew past the 35.52 midpoint resistance with a gap-up opening and never looked back. But what happens thereafter will tell us whether the rally is any different from umpteen previous rallies that ended in disappointment. An easy move through the target would suggest the uptrend is getting legs for a shot at significantly higher prices.  An uncorrected continuation that tops July's 38.09 peak would strongly suggest bulls have returned in force. _______ UPDATE (Sep 19, 10:20 p.m.):  If you missed boarding at the 9/7 low, this vehicle will become an opportune 'mechanical' buy if and when it gets down to x=34.60. I'd suggest buying stock (stop 33.86) or naked-shorting puts, but buy calls only if using a small-pattern (i.e., camouflage) trigger that can get you in near the exact low, time-wise.

Bulls appeared tapped out as the week ended, unable to fill the gap formed by Thursday's air pocket. To make matters worse, the stock settled just beneath the lower end of the gap range, implying the DaBoyz couldn't even mau-mau shorts into displaying a little fear. This will be problematic when index futures begin to trade Sunday evening, since the broad averages weren't exactly looking frisky either. Expect more slippage to the 164.90 target of the reverse pattern shown. Getting short is certain to be tricky, since everyone else will be trying to do it too.

The bullish pattern shown looks incapable of guile, so we don't have to stick out our necks very far to heap opprobrium on those who can't stop obsessing over 'inflation' and a dollar supposedly headed into BRIC-induced oblivion. As I will continue to point out, the last thing the world needs right now is a strong dollar, since it would increase the burden of debt for all who owe dollars. That is reason enough for DXY to keep on rising, since the mounting troubles of borrowers in and of itself will continue to exert mild short-squeeze pressure on the buck. Accordingly, we should expect the rally to continue to at least p=106.32 over the near term. When DXY pops thought that Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably headed for D=113.06, we'll see some erstwhile dollar bears start to break ranks. Recession will be full upon us by then, even if unheralded by mainstream news sources.

Crude spent the week head-butting the 88.11 target shown. I'm not a big believer in rallies driven by artificial constraints on supply, but our enemies have shown enough persistence and cohesiveness to suggest they can hurt America economically. Pump price are pushing above $4 for regular gas, amounting to another stab in the eye for Wall Street shills who as recently as two weeks ago were talking about, not a soft landing, but about no landing. So much for bullish spin, even if Americans seem to have an inexhaustible supply of surplus dollars to foot the bill for rising energy costs that will push up prices for nearly everything Above 88.11, this pattern, with a 98.84 target will be well in play.

Last week's moderate weakness failed to achieve the green line (x=4454.25), where we've been looking to do some bottom-fishing. The stop-loss for the relevant pattern would be just beneath C=4397.75, implying entry risk of about $2,800 per contract. That means we'll need to craft a trigger on a chart of lesser degree in order to bring the risk down by around 90%. Although I am confident this 'mechanical' trade will produce a profit, I cannot guarantee that the implied bounce will get much farther than the red line, where we would typically take a partial profit. _______ UPDATE (Sep 13, 11:42 p.m.): Night owl special:  Use the 4533.75 target of this pattern and a 1.75-point trigger interval to get short. This trade is for Chat Room 4 denizens only. _______ UPDATE (Sep 14, 8:41): Even though it went against an uptrend driven by lunatics and thieves, the short advised last night proved to be a lay-up. The futures dove 12.25 points after topping two ticks above the 4533.75 target drum-rolled above. Executing the trade with the 1.75-point trigger suggested, then partially covering the short at p and D, would have yielded a $475 profit in under 30 minutes. However, the eventual drop to 4522.00 could have produced additional gains worth $600 more per contract. Here's the chart.  The futures have since lunaticked to higher highs ahead of the opening, but what do we care? We simply carved out an easy trade in the midst of the usual headless-chicken price action.