Just when it looked like prices at the pump were going to ease below $3, this nasty little sumbitch poked its snout above the transom and was threatening to take out some important peaks recorded since last November. The most important of them, an 83.59 high notched on November 7, seems likely to give way if a 'voodoo number' at 82.52 is easily penetrated to the upside. Perhaps the increase in energy costs this would produce is the reason why the stock market looks ripe for a fall? We may be better equipped to answer the question by week's end if not sooner. ______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 9:10 p.m.): The futures have plummeted after ratcheting up to within an inch of a voodoo number that got some play among advanced Pivoteers on Monday. More is needed to bring relief at the pump, but it's not clear yet whether sellers have the guts to bring crude quotes down into the low-$70s.
The failure of the September contract to reach the 4645 target shown before turning down sharply is not a healthy sign. It suggests that the correction begun from last week's 4634 high could fall as far as the green line before buyers are fully recharged. At a minimum, the decline should come down to the red line, setting up a theoretical 'mechanical' buy hat would take a 4461 stop-loss. Stay tuned to the chat room for more-detailed guidance if the trade should get close. We should also monitor Friday's vicious short-squeeze diligently, since this market has been surprising us for years by making new highs at times when meaningful technical indicators are beautifully aligned for big selloffs. In this case, a platoon of chartists appears to be focused on a well-defined channel that closely caught last week's high. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:56 p.m.): A thousand chartists, ever hopeful of catching The Big One, were firmly aligned at a seemingly impregnable channel line that caught last week's top. However, it would now appear that The Thing That Wouldn't Die is about to impale the resistance as it has dozens of times before. A few more Hindenburg Omens ought to stop the beast, right? ______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 9:14 p.m.): A wave of selling saved the day, sending this gas-bag sharply lower while generating a robust impulse leg. That implies rallies over the near term will be corrective and therefore shortable, so you should stay tuned to the chat room if you trade this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:23 p.m,.): Amidst today's airy, bullish spasms, there seemed to be no easy way to get short -- a strong sign that the next big move will be down. This would be affirmed if the futures finish the week at or near the intraday
The Svengalis who control the stock failed on Friday to gap it above any previous peaks on the hourly chart, so I've hoisted the yellow flag. It is unusual for them to miss in this way, but we should never count them out, since they have mastered the trick of pushing the world's biggest-cap stock sharply higher on little more than hot air. It would take a fall all the way down to 189.63 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but until such time as that happens there is little justification for having a strong bias in either direction. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:28 p.m.): Earnings out after the close were strong, but it was the punk outlook that caused a perverse leap to as high as 196. It is the after-hours low at 185.00, however, that will likely set the tone for the week ahead.
Every dog has its day, so perhaps that explains why bowser has been forging higher since mid-July. The pattern shown projects to at least 102.18, but we'll need to see how bulls handle the resistance before we are able to judge whether the rally will get legs. Judging from the way a hypothetical 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=101.37) took off without probing any lower, DXY appears to be a very strong bet to blow past D=102.18. Speculative call buying is warranted, although I am unable to provide precise guidance ahead of Sunday evening's opening. ______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 9:19 p.m.): A fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart promises to keep this rally going, presumably to a test of highs near 103.50 recorded in late June and early July.
As usual, Gold is taking its sweet old time going anywhere, never mind to the 2027 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. We'll need to see how buyers handle this resistance before we can judge the likelihood of a rally to the 2154.20 target. The August contract is on a theoretical 'buy' signal at the moment, but the only way to use it with risk tightly controlled would be to set up a 'camo' trigger on an intraday chart. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since I may be able to signal a timely opportunity tied to this vehicle's wonted morning reversals. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 8:43 a.m.): Gold has slipped back into its accustomed 'garbage mode', in a bull market more reminiscent of The Flying Dutchman in search of land than its 1970s heyday. Here's a chart that shows an 1895.10 downside target for the October contract.
I rarely display a chart with two patterns, but in this case, both have been working well enough to provide a handhold for trades in either direction. The 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the smaller, downtrending pattern caught a tradeable low on Friday almost precisely and would signal a 'mechanical' short if the futures were to touch x=24.85 (stop 25.48), as the new week begins. There's $12,600 0f theoretical entry risk on four contracts, so this one is intended only for subscribers who have mastered 'camo' set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:05 a.m.): Only one subscriber mentioned having done the trade, so I did not establish a tracking position. The short from the green line is still 'live', however, and has produced a profit so far of $3150 for each contract covered at the red line. Typically, I advise covering half of any position there, or of implementing an 'impulsive' stop-loss if just a single contract is held.
GDXJ is close to triggering its second 'mechanical' buy signal since mid-June. We usually jump on first signals only, but in this case bears look so enfeebled that it may be possible to make money on some call options. Bid the 4 August 37 calls gently, paying no more than 0.32 for them. (They closed on Friday ay 0.49.) This is a day order to be placed ahead of Monday's opening. I will adjust the price intraday if it appears that we can do even better, so stay tuned to the chat room and have your 'Notifications' switch on if you are keen to play. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:19 a.m.): The bid failed to trigger when the Aug 37 calls opened at 0.53 and instantly traded up to 0.72. Sellers at 0.53 may have felt like they'd been had because they were. Opening-rotation trades in option markets are not for amateurs.
My 'Chipotle indicator' suggests that CMG, along with other high-fliers and the broad averages, could fall by at least 27% from recent highs before the bull market resumes later this summer. We last visited the burrito vendor's chart in early May, just after a short-squeeze powered by feverish buying speared the red line, a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' resistance at 1968. This stood to be a formidable impediment, especially since it closely coincided with the structural resistance of a key high at 1958 recorded 19 months earlier. But buyers, mostly bears scrambling to cover bets against the stock that were exploding in their faces, gutted the resistance with ease, managing to hold the stock effortlessly aloft for three months. Last week, however, it dove through the line in a shakeout that was stage-managed just as effectively as the gaseous rally. DaBoyz evidently had decided there was not sufficient buying power to keep the stock moving sideways indefinitely, so they pulled their bids, letting it plummet toward levels where they eventually will be able to accumulate shares once again with a thimble-rigger's confidence. A High-Odds Bet If the selling should exhaust itself near the green line at $1582, that would trigger what in Hidden Pivot parlance is called a 'mechanical' buy. As longtime subscribers to Rick's Picks could attest, such bets seldom lose when they follow steep, powerful rallies such as the one that occurred in this stock during the peak covid years 2020-21. Ordinarily, we should expect the rally to reach the 'D' target at 2739. Stocks nearly always achieve 'D' when the midpoint pivot, in this case 1968, has gotten shredded on first contact. Assuming Chipotle eventually hits its mark, the bull market in stocks would have significantly higher to go, since CMG and a handful of other world-beaters would
The steep rally begun in January has barely paused for breath, so relentless that it could properly be described as a manifestation of mass psychosis. And here's the thing: This the largest-cap stock in the world, with a $3 trillion valuation, so every ratcheting, short-squeeze rally adds tens of billions in 'wealth' to the world's macro ledger. It can't end well, since, in a recession, Apple's pricey iPhone will be near the top of the list of things that consumers stop buying. In the meantime, we can only watch in amazement as the stock continues to ascend toward the 253.96 target pictured in this chart. Please note that with just a little more upside above the 198.23 high, the stock would become a screaming 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=156.52. AAPL is egregiously overdue for a very nasty selloff, but we'll need to see corrective 'd' targets on the lesser charts start to be exceeded routinely before we infer the retracement is under way. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:25 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since today's by-now-obligatory gap-up opening failed to surpass last week's high. The subsequent dive, trapping bulls and bear alike, created an impulse leg, but let's see if bears can improve on it into week's end, turning it into the start of something big.
August Gold spent the week consolidating just above the green line, where a theoretical buy signal triggered the previous week. We should assume minimum upside to p=2028.30, a not very ambitious target but one that would nonetheless fix $2000 in traders minds as support. That's assuming the futures can close for at least two consecutive weeks above the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p). They should be trade with a bullish bias in the meantime, using 'reverse-pattern' triggers drawn from the lesser charts. Stay tuned to the chat room and email 'Notifications' if you trade this vehicle.
