Rick Ackerman

I've been bullish on the dollar since...forever, always rationalizing my bias with a deflation-based argument. However, Tom Luongo's latest newsletter provides a simpler answer, at least for the near term, to wit:  Fed chairman Powell and Eurobank President Christine LaGarde are in a policy battle that the latter can't win. Although Power undoubtedly is serious about staying tight, LaGarde has gone wobbly out of fear that Europe's already faltering economy could go down the tubes with another turn of the screw. We'll be betting aggressively on Powell, and therefore a strengthening dollar, in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned to the chat room (and to your Rick's Picks email 'Notifications') for timely strategic guidance. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 6:40 p.m.): We've been using a Hidden pivot at 106.32 as a minimum upside target, hut here's a pattern I like even more that projects to 106.84. As always, an easy move through it would imply the uptrend is likely to continue. _______ UPDATE (Sep 27, 3:41 p.m.): Following a steep upthrust in the early going to exactly 106.84, DXY head-butted the Hidden Pivot several times before turning sharply lower. 'Where to next?' will depend on how impulsive the pullback is and how long it lasts, but we can read the trend accurately (and, perforce, profitably) in real time as the retracement lengthens on the lesser charts. The target was two months in coming, so it should not be a pushover. If it is, that will be telling us the uptrend is, and remains, quite strong.

The dinky little 'A' high I've selected does not provide a worst-case low for this cinder block, but the 88.93 downside target shown will do for now. Only a powerful rally that creates an island-gap reversal could prevent a further fall, but we would first have to imagine its cause to become believers. It's easier and arguably more plausible to picture 'A' at the 102.95 high recorded in mid-July. That would give us a new, lower target at 86.31. It would equate to a 4.81% yield on the long bond, by the way. See this week's 'Morning Line commentary for further details.

The futures were saved by the bell on Friday after a deftly faked show of strength in the first two hours succumbed to gravity as the afternoon progressed. After being up more than 30 points, the December contract finished the week down nine points, just off the intraday low. There was discernible anxiety as the reversal unfolded, but no real urgency until the final 3o minutes. Fear is bound to carry over into Sunday evening, so look for a further fall to at least 4321.75, the Hidden Pivot target of the bearish pattern shown. Bottom-fishing when the futures get within a point of that number would require a trigger interval (TI) of 18 points, so the trade is recommended only for those of you who can pare that down to 6 points or less using a 'camouflage' set-up or your own trick.  As always, an easy breach of so compelling a support would portend still lower prices to come. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 6:45): The futures caught a 15-point bounce from 4321.75 that last for two hours before succumbing to gravity.  I am now focused on a 4220.49 downside target for the S&P 500 cash index that lies 53 points below. See my chat room post for further details. Here's the chart. 

It has taken the stock two weeks to return to lows where we cashed out of puts for as much as a hundred times what we'd paid for them a week earlier. The trade came off an appealing 'mechanical' sell signal generated by the pattern shown, and there is no reason why this pattern cannot continue to work for us. For starters, that means we can expect more slippage to at least p2=159.95 once the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 172.24 gives way. This looks unavoidable, although I don't expect the dirtballs who manipulate AAPL for a living to go quietly into the night.  The 164.90 downside target given here earlier remains viable and can be bottom-fished with a reverse pattern trigger interval of 4.50 points. Ask for guidance in the chat room when appropriate if you're unsure about how to whittle this down to a reasonable number.

I've reproduced a chart that goes back to 2019 in order to show clearly that there has been little drama in more than three years. Comex futures are trading about where they were in the summer of 2020, meaning there has been no net gain since then. The chart is unmistakably bullish and projects to as high as 2326.30 (basis the August contract), but that doesn't mean gold couldn't fall by $200 or more before it heads into, if not the wild blue yonder, then perhaps toward a towering cumulus cloud on the horizon.  A pullback to x=1864.10 in the meantime would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with excellent odds for success, but we'll wait until it gets there before we discuss entry tactics.

We can dream about Silver's rise to the 36.24 target shown, but for the time being that's all it is: a dream. That's not saying the December contract could not break out within the next 8-10 weeks with a fist-pump above the 27.46 peak recorded in March 2022, but until that happens there is no point getting all het up about the prospect. At the moment, Silver has been tough merely to trade, since the futures have oscillated mostly within a single Hidden Pivot band for ten months. They are also trading toward the middle of a wider range that has persisted since July 2020. Bottom line, if you see anything even remotely interesting in this chart, you are hallucinating.

We're long 400 shares from a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=34.60). Friday's bull-trap rally on the opening bar strongly implies GDXJ will take out at least another low or two before it can get traction. So that we don't get caught like everyone else in a stressful second-guessing game, I'll suggest sticking with the 34.11 stop-loss I posted in the chat room on Thursday. My hunch is that a more tradeable low will occur near 33.21 (60-min, A=36.80 on 9/1). We can try again to get long there rather than suffering-and-shuffling along with the herd in the meantime. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 10:04 p.m.): Today's nasty dive stopped out the trade for a loss of about $200. This is a sign of rotten health, considering the textbook appeal of the pattern we used to get long 'mechanically,' 

Crude turned sluggish last week, but not before generating a bullish impulse leg on Friday that will likely hold positive consequences for the near term. I say 'positive' while acknowledging that another turn of the screw could send the world's fragile economy into a tailspin. Pump prices are already above $4/gallon and will become headline news when it looks as though $5 is coming. To get in step with that eventuality, I've lowered the point 'A' low of the chart we've been using to produce a somewhat higher target at 94.76.  A swoon to the green line (x=87.69) would generate an attractive 'mechanical' buy signal, but we'll wait until it is close to happening before we hatch a strategy to trade it. _______ UPDATE (Sep 28, 1:54 p.m. EDT): November Crude has plunged after topping a hair from the 94.76 target billboarded in the current tout. This adds to the evidence that The Big Picture may have changed, since the dollar and Treasury rates have also reversed sharply after achieving important Hidden Pivot targets precisely. 

The bullish gap on the chart holds ominous implications for the global economy, since it removes almost all doubt that interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds are headed significantly higher. The rally looks nearly certain to reach 4.81%, the target of the pattern shown.  The red line through which the gap occurred last Thursday is a 'Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance,' and it is where we look to get a firm handle on trend strength. When it is penetrated as easily and decisively as it was last week, this almost invariably results in a continuation of the trend to the target, in this case a 48.14 level that corresponds to a 4.81% rate. A tradeable corollary is that a swoon to the green line would be merely corrective, and that bond bears, far from being scared out of their positions, could double down on their bets with confidence.  The equivalent rate for the Ten-Year Note would be 4.68%. Historical Downturn You should jot those numbers down, since they will allow you to tune out the din of pundits and economists arguing about how high rates are likely to go. With the economies of China and Europe already sinking into recession, and the U.S. about to do so when the inevitable bear market in stocks gets rolling, another turn of the interest-rate screw threatens a downturn that will be one for the history books.  It will feature above all a strengthening dollar that will not only catch economist and policymakers by surprise, but also crush everyone who owes dollars. A ruinous debt deflation is coming, and it will make us nostalgic for the pesky consumer inflation that has ruled our economic lives since the wildly reckless credit-stimulus of the Covid years.