Last Wednesday's low at 91.66 triggered the 'mechanical' buy that had been noted in the previous tout. Simultaneously, a second such buy signal occurred at the green line (x=93.21) of this smaller pattern. It carries a commensurately smaller stop-loss, but we'll back away from the trade nonetheless, since the pullback to x came after TLT had barely reached the red line. Ideally, the retracement for a 'mechanical' set-up should come from our 'sweet spot', which lies midway between p and p2.
The Dollar Index didn't so much impale the 103.11 midpoint resistance last week as overwhelm it. This shortens the odds of DXY's achieving our 106.06 target (slightly revised) over the next 3–4 months. It is encouraging to see gold performing so well despite the pressure of a strong dollar, but also scary to imagine the implications this might hold for so deeply troubled a geopolitical world. A clear implication is that Treasury bonds and notes, not wildly popular lately, continue to be a promising place to secure one's savings. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27): Last week's steep rally pushed the Dollar Index toward the 106.06 target much more quickly than I might have expected. If bulls exceed it easily, you can be sure that a test of two important peaks near 107 that were recorded in the past year near is coming.
The futures looked like a good bet at the bell on Friday to hit the 5957.00 target shortly after trading resumes this week. The pattern shown has generated two winning bull trades so far, both at the green line, leaving one more prospective opportunity for the hat trick: a short from the 5957.00 target. It looks too obvious to work precisely, and even if it does, the Hidden Pivot resistance will not likely slow the Trump Express for long. Buyers took on a more significant 'hidden' resistance at 5868.50 last week and not only impaled it, they closed the December contract above it, all but guaranteeing more of the same.
The 4.06% midpoint resistance shown in the chart has failed to stop the rate rise begun from 3.60% in September. The uptrend has been munching through this Hidden Pivot for the last week, clearing the way for a presumptive push to p2=4.29% and possibly to 4.52%. That may be good news for the dollar, but not for those who owe dollars, since repayment will become more difficult in real terms. It is worse than that, actually, since waning inflation will effectively raise the real rate and therefore the burden of all debts incurred in dollars.
Friday's surge surpassed minor Hidden Pivot targets with such ease that there's little doubt December Silver will achieve the 37.485 target shown in the inset. The pattern is a degree smaller than the one presented here last week, which showed a 37.249 objective tracing back to the start of the covid hoax in March 2020. Although price action at p has been less than decisive, the fact that the rally provided no opportunity to buy a pullback to x=29.535 'mechanically' further implies the target(s) will be reached.
Notice that crude at a current $68 per barrel has made no upward progress in nearly 20 years. Adjusting for inflation, producers have taken a big hit. However, the quadrupling of oil prices in the early 1970s left them with a base price that ensured that no Saudi prince would ever go begging for a fleet of Lamborghinis in every color of the rainbow. Although the pattern shown is bullish and allows for a move to $125, or even to $187 (!), we have little to gain speculating on when prices might break out of the constipated, $30 range that has confined them for the last three years. Crude oil, the largest, most politically rigged market in the known universe, is, to repeat, 'just a trade'. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27): And what about prices breaking downward? This will depend on when a global financial bust that has been postponed since the S&L crisis of the early 1990s comes barreling along. There is no predicting when this will occur, but when it finally does, it will crush demand for oil, along with its price. For now, though, even when prices are falling, they are relatively strong, considering that China's economy has gone slack. Their demand for fuel is what sets oil's price at the margin, One could infer that it is mainly incalculable geopolitical risks that have kept the price of crude from crashing, and bears from amassing large short positions.
Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only the hubris of America's promised return to greatness to set it in motion. Let's hope Mr. Trump gets a chance to clean house first, since Washington is a rat's nest of corruption and plots to bring down America. In the meantime, there is no arguing that the rampaging stock market has got it wrong in predicting that Harris, along with the malignant political philosophy and crackpot schemes she represents, will be overwhelmingly repudiated by voters on November 5. With a gusher of mail-in ballots already pouring in and millions of illegals ready to lend their signatures to the Democrats, it could take weeks or longer to adjudicate the results. Regardless, Trump is riding a wave so powerful that even if the Democrats double the cheating that won them the White House in 2020, they will still come up short. Liberals should listen to Harris's recent interview on Fox with Bret Baier to understand why she can't possibly win. She comes across as so empty and insipid that a conservative could almost wax nostalgic for Hillary's evil cunning and brass cojones. 'A Small Price to Pay' The biggest problem Trump will inherit lies in the Middle East, not Ukraine. He and Putin are neither friends nor enemies but seem to respect each other. This cannot be said of jihadis Trump must confront and what remains of their leadership. Israel has wiped out the terrorists' command structure, and we should expect them to try desperately to settle
[I can’t stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris’s candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a bold, Menckenesque essay that will dazzle you with its insightfulness. He offers three scenarios, two of which could bring America to the brink of civil war. Fortunately, the third, a Trump landslide, seems the most likely and would give Americans a chance to snuff Deep State for good before it can recover from the blow. With Jim’s kind permission, here is Kamala Unwinding, his latest Clusterfuck Nation essay on substack. RA] *** “. . . we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things). . . .” — Ugo Bardi <<<<< >>>>> “As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” — Doug Casey ***** Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay. . . . It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an
November Crude climbed almost precisely to the 78.39 rally target I air-mailed to you last Sunday, topping at 78.46 before plunging a brutal $7. No one mentioned this in the chat room besides DJI, let alone crowed about making money on it, so I will be dropping crude from the core list of touts to get the list down to a more manageable seven symbols. As always, I will gladly furnish timely guidance when requested in the chat for those who trade this vehicle. The chart shows the comfy, $20 range in which crude has been screwing the pooch for more than two years. Presumably, DaBoyz are waiting for the perfect opportunity to short-squeeze quotes to $90 or higher. This will happen; it is only a matter of when. We can hope it is not caused by an escalation of the developing and so-far-tolerable Third World War. It is saying something about capitalism in its manifestly advanced state of decadence, and about civilization itself, that the world's largest commodity market is just one, gigantic game on the global midway, rigged for the benefit of a relative few at the great expense of all humanity.
The futures spent the whole week sucking the marrow from bears with a shallow, stubborn correction. One might think this would set up a fearsome rally, and there is that possibility. Regardless, we should keep a close eye on price action at the 5868.50 Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown as we attempt to get short there in the usual way -- i.e., via a small-pattern reverse trigger (aka 'camouflage'). The pattern is one more example of an 'ABCD' that is too obvious to work precisely but which cannot fail to show stopping power that is tradable, however laboriously. Bears shouldn't grow too discouraged if the mindless herd plows through the target, since there is another, potentially even more daunting, 'hidden' resistance at 5906.25. That's the midpoint pivot, on the monthly chart, of A= 4310.50 (10/31/23).
