More bad news for permabears, it would seem. At the start of last week, the futures easily pushed past d=5573 of the reverse pattern shown; then they spent the next few days frolicking above it before head-butting a stubborn voodoo resistance to end the week. All of this was doubtless propagated by shorts intent on torturing themselves, and there evidently are way too many for stocks to collapse at the moment. The potentially good news for all you collapsitarians is that my forecasts from months ago foresaw this presumably doomed bounce with a chart of IBM that shows how, just ahead of the Great Financial Crash of 2007-08, Mr Market set the hook. He did this so cleverly that the bear market took everyone, bulls and bears alike, down with it. As you can see, wreaking havoc on investors required a feint to marginal new highs after the broad averages seemingly had topped two months earlier. That is what I foresee now, as autumn approaches. Stay closely tuned to Rick's Picks if you believe that the stock market is long overdue for the wrenching correction that alone can return investors to sanity and prudence.
MSFT is taking its sweet old time getting to D=449.42, but it will get there. That's very significant, because as long as there's an outstanding rally target in this bellwether, the broad averages will continue to waft higher. A pullback to the green line (x=401.54) would offer an excellent opportunity for bottom-fishing or augmenting a long position. However, I doubt we'll see such weakness before the stock takes another leap skyward. I will signal any impending swings if they have tradable consequences, but there is little in prospect at the moment.
Sellers crushed the 102.4o downside target featured here last week, so I've substituted a longer-term chart with a more significant target at 93.79. We'll know better whether it is likely to be reached once we've seen how the midpoint support at 100.57 fares. It held precisely back in December, but I wouldn't bet on it to hold this time. If DXY trades significantly below it (i.e., 99.50 or lower), however, or closes below it for two consecutive weekly bars, that would make further downside to p2=97.18 an odds-on bet.
Mr Slammy hauled out his sledgehammer and knocked GDXJ for a loop midweek, but by Friday buyers were back in force, threatening to turn the 49.02 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance into chop suey. It had stopped a strong rally cold a week earlier, but the next time, which appears imminent, bulls seem likely to triumph. A decisive breach of the red line would put this symbol on track for an easy shot at p2=60.62. That number can be used as a minimum upside projection once GDXJ has traded for two consecutive days above p.
[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday for me, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go bonkers. I will also continue to provide tradable guidance and timely analysis in the chat room. To sum up the markets for now, though, let me note that the scripted savaging of the lunatic stocks (aka the egregiously misnamed 'Magnificent Seven') unfolded in July exactly as anticipated. Now, I am focused on the strong possibility that the manic bounce that has ensued will turn out to be a sucker rally, a distribution much like the summer binge that preceded the 1929 Crash. Concerning the painting, it is by Geoffrey Leckie and titled 'Restoration of St. Marco'. Geoff and I attended the University of Virginia at the same time and shared a farmhouse outside of Charlottesville. He is a deeply gifted artist whose works, mostly oil on canvas, include landscapes, still-lifes and portraits that have always stirred me with their beauty and uncompromising style. His California seascapes are a particular favorite of mine, capturing the roughness of the Northern California coastline and the ceaseless fury of the waves. Geoff lives in Venice, Italy, but travels the world for inspiration. Here is a link to some of his other paintings and the galleries that represent him. The Venetian scene is thematically tied to the literary text below, an excerpt from Thomas Mann’s magisterial The Magic Mountain. Mann considered vacations essential to restoring one’s vital energy following boring stretches on-the-job. His novella Death in Venice concerns a writer who takes a holiday to recoup his gifts, only to
Our favorite bull market bellwether is still on track for a rendezvous with 449.13, the 'd' target of the reverse pattern shown. Buyers didn't exactly shred the midpoint resistance (p=417.36), but they did exceed it by four points, then closed above it. That is sufficient for us to infer the stock is likely, if not quite certain, to achieve 'd'. A pullback first to x=401.47, however unlikely, would offer an excellent opportunity to get long 'mechanically', although I expect the stock to head straightforwardly to p2=433.24 when trading resumes Sunday evening.
With expectations of a rally into the low 80s at least, we should be prepared to bottom-fish this correction when it comes down to the green line (x=73.56). This is a 'mechanical' set-up, and it comes with the caveat that x is neither target, nor support, nor Hidden Pivot, just a place on charts where we set up 'mechanical' trades. This one looks like a very good bet, but it will require staging on the lesser charts, since the textbook stop-loss would otherwise be at 70.87, a tick beneath C. That's too much to risk on a conventional entry, so stay tuned to the chat room for alternatives. _______ UPDATE (Aug 19, 9:34 p.m.): The futures rallied 45 cents after bottoming at 73.48, affording us a small winner of around $920 on four contracts (see my 14:58 post in the chat room for details). They have relapsed this evening and are now rallying in their wonted, psychotic fashion after making a marginal new low. Step away as crude carves out a tortuous bottom. _______ UPDATE (Aug 23): Crude doesn't merit an update, since it's trading exactly where it was six months ago. This is notwithstanding the flatulent rumble emanating from the charts since then. It has been paradoxically easy to trade, but you'll have to nudge me proactively in the chat room for timely guidance. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Gold took off Friday following a shallower correction than we'd become used to. It's tempting to say that the scum balls who manipulate bullion prices for a living lost control, but more likely is that they are simply ready to let 'er rip. In any case, the October contract finished precisely at the authoritative trendline shown, and unless DaBoyz believe they can accumulate yet more tonnage with another takedown, this week should see the breakout that will finally take gold to $3000.
We had great fun with Comex Silver last week, notwithstanding its reputation among traders as a Brahma bull. Although it was not exactly docile, its gratuitous feints, squiggles, plunges and war-whoops were so easily and precisely predictable that we managed to hit a half-dozen tradable highs and lows before the week ended. I stayed closer to the intraday charts than usual after eliciting pledges from a bunch of subscribers to make the extra effort worth my while. And so it was. If you're eager for more, then by all means light up the chat room with more ballyhoo. In the meantime, you can count on the little sumbitch to fist-pump to the 29.620 target shown, a Hidden Pivot resistance that would be tricky to short, since it lies a single tick above an 'external peak recorded July 24 on the way down.
For all of its rude, gratuitous violence, Bertie's swings are as predictable as any symbol we track. It is bound for 65,551, notwithstanding last week's annoying histrionics and evasions. I don't track it diligently enough to call every turn in the chat room, but I'm willing to put more effort into it if there is strong interest. Last week's payoff would have been a heads-up for a 'mechanical' buy at the red line, a gambit that went nicely in the black as the week ended. ______UPDATE (August 24): Just a few more inches to go before this deftly-managed hoax reaches my target with yet another gratuitous spasm. It will have rallied 30% in less than three weeks, adding a modest contribution to the global 'wealth' effect. Here's a new, slightly corrected target for subscribers seeking to manage crypto positions precisely: 65,597.76. _______ UPDATE (Aug 28, 8:37 a.m. EDT): Talk about easy pickings! Bitcoin plunged $7,000 after topping just 0.6% from my 65,597 target. Here's a new chart that implies it could fall a further $5,400 from current levels to p=54,701 before it finds solid footing. If you are new to Rick's Picks and skeptical about technical analysis, or just tired of having to rely on bumblers, shills and charlatans for bitcoin price forecasts, I'd suggest following these updates closely. I will continue to make this continuously updated tout freely accessible to everybody -- including Robin Hoodies, BlackRock thugs, crypto hypemongers and hack journalists on deadline. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 11:55 a.m.): Bertie is closing on my 54,701.28 target. As noted with more than a little hubris in my tout, this vehicle is "easy pickings". Let's see if the Robin Hoodies and bitcoin dupes are paying attention.
