TLT has taken three big leaps since bottoming in mid-January, but only one of them exceeded an 'external' peak. Still more dispiriting is that the last sputtered out almost precisely at an upward correction target, well shy of an important 'external' high at 90.99 recorded on December 17. The rally appears to have been a garden-variety correction in an ongoing bear market, although we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt until such time as the pullback starts exceeding prior lows. The rally corresponds to a drop in Ten Year interest rates that appears to have bottomed synchronously near a Hidden Pivot support at 4.43%. The downward move in rates began in mid-January from 4.81%.
Rates on the Ten-Year Note have fallen to 4.41% since peaking in mid-January at 4.81%. The low was slightly beneath my target at 4.43%, an overshoot that mildly implies rates will continue lower. However, Friday's bounce to 4.51% was significant enough to suggest the downtrend may have ended. I've given bulls the benefit of the don't in TLT, which is equivalent to saying interest-rate bears -- i.e., those expecting lower rates -- deserve the same benefit of the doubt. However, if this bounce should exceed the 4.60% peak from February 2, that would be a reason to infer that rates bottomed with the recent low.
Our favorite little wack-a-doodle spent the week out on the ledge, unable to decide whether to splatter the sidewalk or leap up into the old wazoo of impatient bears. Any forthcoming decision could be moot, since I've got an outstanding rally target at 116,807 that could pull Bitcoin out of a funk any time things start looking ugly. Even so, I've reversed the polarity of my recent outlook with a chart that favors a corrective slide to at least 91,119, or 87,293 if any lower. This is mildly speculative, since BTCUSD never even tested the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 94,946, much less penetrate it. If penetration happens decisively over the weekend or on Monday, consider the corrective scenario a done deal. Regardless, you could attempt to bottom-fish at the red line, provided you've got the 'camouflage' chops to cut the entry risk down to small change.
The week ended with the futures on a 'mechanical' sell signal that is showing a nice profit, but I doubt whether the downtrend will reach the 'D' target at 5864. This is the second such signal in two weeks, the first having produced a theoretical gain of as much as $4,000 per contract. The subsequent bounce made up the lost ground and then some, demonstrating that bulls are not about to roll over quietly when the occasional barrage of selling hits. Look for the current weakness to find at least temporary support, potentially tradable, at 6014.25 (60m, A=.6147.75 on 1/31). A decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot support on first contact would imply further slippage to at least 5961.25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 7:40 a.m. EST): The futures have taken a so-far 68-point bounce from within a single tick of the 6014.25 Hidden Pivot support I'd suggested using for bottom-fishing. A single contract purchased there when the futures began trading Sunday could have reaped a profit of as much as $3800.
Last week's decisive breakout above the 2791.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart all but clinches a follow-through to at least p2=2905.30, and thence to an almost as likely D target at 3018.70. (The April equivalents are, respectively, 2927.40 and 3040.90.) A pullback in the meantime to the green line (x=2678, or 2700.30, basis April), however unlikely, would offer the juiciest 'mechanical' buying opportunity we've seen in a long while. More immediately, you should expect a potentially tradable stall at 2854.80 (2883, basis April), my minimum upside target for the near term. The usual imbeciles are attributing the breakout to Trump's tariff plans, whatever they might be, but also to a run on London bullion inventories by presumptive buyers in China and India, and to many other sovereign entities that evidently want to be prepared if this already-too-interesting world should turn still more interesting. There is as yet little evidence that the spike in demand for gold has fed into Bitcoin. True disbelievers in the latter's value and potential should consider betting the spread will widen, but don't expect Michael Saylor and his ilk to fade you till their heads cave in.
GDXJ's gap opening through a daunting midpoint resistance was not quite as impressive as Comex gold's simultaneous thrust, but it was persuasive nonetheless. The rally ran out of gas on Friday, but the way buyers handled p=48.39 suggests the pullback will not get very far before they are raring to go again. The earliest the turn could come would be from 47.57, the 'd' target of a=47.88 (1/24) on the daily chart. In any case, I'll reiterate targets that are theoretically in play, for the record: p2=51.65 and D=54.92.
I have outstanding projections as high as 5.5%, but the ponderous weight of supply just below 5% could conceivably put a lid on the bull move that began in March 2020 with covid. If rates fall to the red line (4.24%) as appears likely, price action at that midpoint Hidden Pivot will tell us whether they are headed still lower. A strong bounce would imply yields are about to resume their upward skew. However, if the downtrend crushes p=4.24%, or if TNX closes for two consecutive months below it, look for a further fall to d=3.67%.
The rally from mid-January's low may seem impressive, but don't expect much to come of it. The ascent has occurred in two discrete upthrusts, neither of which exceeded an external peak. The failure to do so was a matter of inches, but that's all the more telling since it demonstrated that bulls manifestly lack the vigor and conviction to generate impulse legs on the daily chart, let alone effortless ones. I'll remain skeptical until such time as TLT pops decisively above the 88.91 peak notched on December 20, then stays above it for two consecutive days. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 10:19 p.m. EST): I've been fighting off every bullish sign, but there is no denying the bullish implications of today's breakaway gap through a clear Hidden Pivot target at 89.81. Buyers will need to do a little better, pushing past the 90.99 'external' peak recorded on December 17, to demonstrate their new prowess, but that shouldn't be a problem given the power of today's move.
Some think the dollar's bull run is over because of Trump, but I doubt it. Trump is viewed by conservatives and libtards alike as the cause of just about everything these days, but let them try to explain why stocks keep going up even though everyone is so upset about his tariffs. A strong dollar threatens to crush an era of easy credit and make it painful for all who owe dollars to pay them back. The dollar's main source of strength is that the world simply cannot afford for the dollar to keep rising. It will undo all the assumptions that have made the 'wealth effect' the most popular invention in the history of civilization. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is in a so-far moderate correction from mid-January's 110.18 high. I expect it to come down to at least 105.99, but we should see a strong bounce from that number, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, if new highs are coming. Alternatively, an easy breach of the support would imply more slippage to as low as 101.78.
Crude has the distinction of being the nastiest, most uncooperative vehicle I track. It doesn't give a damn about voodoo numbers; its long-term, $20 swings are gratuitous, and it is the shameless bitch of the most heavily rigged market on earth. And just look at what a tease it's been, feinting for six straight days toward the p=71.73 midpoint Hidden Pivot in the chart. Ordinarily, I would bet the ranch bottom-fishing at that red line. However, the March contract's week-long avoidance of it has sapped its value. It could still work, but that's not the point; it absolutely would have worked if it had touched 'p' a week ago like it was supposed to. No one mentions crude in the chat room anymore, not even Artie. Time to scrape it off the home page? If I hear by Tuesday from 350 subscribers who want to save it, then by gummit it, save it I will! _______ UPDATE (Feb 7): I heard from, like, five subscribers, so here's a commensurately taciturn update that probably will still be the most simple, accurate and reliable forecast you're going to find on the internet. Having topped near $80 a few weeks ago, March Crude is midway into the obligatory $15-$20 decline that follows every big rally to wherever. If you plan to bottom-fish, use p2=67.90 or D=64.07 (a back-up-the-truck number from the daily chart, where A= 78.97 on July 5). _______ UPDATE (Feb 21): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
