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I'll trash bitcoin in a moment -- my new hobby -- but first a yellow alert for everyone who thinks the stock market's inevitable collapse is most likely to happen shortly after the first of the year. Although that seems quite plausible, fulfilling popular expectations is not how Mr Market usually works. Think how many lives he could wreck if the collapse were to begin any day now, at the height of Santa season. We should be especially cautious because premium levels for put options on the S&Ps have fallen to near-record lows. Although that does not tell us exactly when the crash is likely to begin, it does make one thing all but certain: The stock market's initial plunge will be so breathtakingly swift and steep that put prices will soar in mere hours to stratospheric levels where no one will want to buy them. Count on it. Concerning Bitcoin, I couldn't resist the temptation to weigh in at WSJ.com after they ran an article last week that attributed Bitcoin's extremely high price to 'scarcity'. The headline drew the usual crowd of youths who seemed to agree. Reaching deep into market history, one of them helpfully pointed out that Bitcoin has outperformed all other investible assets over the last decade. Who knew? Whatever he believes, it is indisputable that Bitcoin  -- unlike tulip bulbs, which can produce beautiful flowers -- has an intrinsic value of zero.  Granted, there's nominal value of perhaps $2-$3 per token because the blockchain within which cryptos are created can be used to effect and record financial transactions securely. But $100,000? That's absurd, considering Bitcoin cannot accomplish those tasks nearly as efficiently as credit cards or cash. Violent Money? And what kind of crazy 'money' explodes in value from five cents to a hundred thousand

With TLT poised for a breakout, I've lowered my target for rates on the 10-Year Note to 4.094%.  The pattern is pretty nutty but still good enough for government work. That means D can be bought with a tight stop, using whatever vehicle you favor for trading the swings in long-term rates. Also, a decisive penetration of the Hidden Pivot support would imply rates are likely to fall even further. Could this indicate a recession is imminent? We'll worry about that after we've seen interest rate bears -- i.e., those who expect yields to fall -- interact with the support.

The chart shows two invisible impediments that could trip up bulls this week. The first lies at 446.62, the D target of a conventional pattern begun from 400 in early September. The second is a trendline resistance from a head-and-shoulders pattern that will come in around 455. Together, these potential rally-stoppers represent thick layers of supply between current levels and July's record 468. The oddity is that until July MSFT had been leading the market higher. Is it about to resume that role after underperforming lunatic-sector stocks for the last several months? We should be ready for this possibility in any event, so stay tuned for updates in the days ahead. _______ UPDATE (December 12, 10:45 a.m.): A diabolically sick time for MSFT to be short-squeezing higher just when the lunatic sector is coughing and wheezing itself to death. One could almost believe the chimpanzees who purport to 'manage' money actually do meet in a smoke-filled room to plot each gratuitous, stupid sector rotation. If the stock hits 460, I'll throw in the towel on that promising head-and-shoulders pattern that has perfectly defined and controlled the stock's ups and downs for the entirety of 2024.

The weekly chart I posted last week set a high bar for bulls. I've downsized this week to the hourly chart, which shows TLT about to test the resistance of a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 94.64. The rally has come far enough since November's sub-90 low to warrant the benefit of the doubt. As always, a two-day close above the red line or a decisive penetration of it would imply more upside to at least p2=97.18 or even to d=99.72).

Last week's slight penetration of Nov 19's external high at 32.03 was bullish, although not very. It generated a weak impulse leg on the daily chart that implies any retracement this week that holds above 30.095 would be corrective and therefore a 'buy'.  A further push up to p=32.483 would certainly call for a tightly tightly tightly tightly stopped short, presumably with a 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 5- or 15-minute chart. My worst-case target is 29.160, a back-up-the-truck number for those of you who have been waiting since early November for a better buying opportunity (daily chart, a= 33.76 on 5-29-24).

Skittish about the stock market's manic climb?  Consider moving some of your savings into T-bills, which are currently yielding around 4.25%. You could do worse. Some of my friends are reluctant to take e ven a little money off the table because 2024 was such an incredible year for them.  One is a retired lawyer who racked up a nearly $500,000 gain in Nvidia.  She sold enough shares to buy a condo in Palm Beach, but her portfolio is otherwise unchanged and showing a return of about 40% for the year. She and her financial advisor are confident her portfolio will do equally well next year. Both of my siblings had a similar experience, but they have since moved most of their nest eggs into Treasury bonds and bills.  It has been an extraordinary year for them, and for millions of Baby Boomers who owned stocks, real estate or both. Who could blame them for thinking that the bull market begun in 2009 might have another year or two left in it? On the other hand, valuations are at their highest levels ever, and a real estate downturn seems all but certain because mortgage rates are stuck at levels too high to attract first-time buyers. And few would deny the stock market is out of its mind, a beast on steroids; we all sense this in our bones. Consider the way speculators have shrugged off ominous tariff news. Trump has threatened our two biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, with protectionist levies that would punish U.S. auto manufacturers in particular and cause grocery prices to surge anew. The President-elect also seems hell-bent on implementing immigration restrictions that would tighten the supply of workers, particularly for unskilled jobs. He's Bluffing, Right? Toward the end of the Roaring Twenties, when Congress was

Let's hope Musk and Ramaswamy have been paying close attention to David Stockman's ten-part series on how to cut the U.S. budget before America spends its way into bankruptcy. Stockman was Reagan's budget director in 1981-85 and eminently qualified to spell out the tough reforms needed to force the U.S. to live within its means. He is no fan of Trump, to put it mildly, but he sees the Musk/Ramaswamy 'DOGE' project as America's last chance to get spending under control. Musk famously asserted during the campaign that he could cut $2 trillion annually from a total federal budget of around $6 trillion. Although we've come to expect big things and even the impossible from Musk, in this case, even with the intrepid Ramaswamy aboard, DOGE may have bitten off more than it can chew. Ironically, it is Stockman's long, detailed list of cuts that makes Musk's goal seem farfetched if not impossible. Stockton admits that eliminating nearly every U.S. department and agency you can think of, and laying off more than half-a-million government employees at the outset, would scarcely dent deficit spending that's been pushing the national debt toward $40 trillion at a rate of more than $3 trillion per year. The list of 16 agencies Trump should axe as soon as he takes office in January includes the FBI, DEA, BATF, NHTSA, Legal Services Corp. and the Department of Education.  Additionally, says Stockman, DOGE should shoot for 50% staff reductions in these fat cows: the SEC (2,250 workers, for savings of $360 million); FCC (750 workers, for savings of $120 million: FAA (22,500 workers, for savings of $3.6 billion); IRS (41,500 workers, for savings of $6.64 billion); National Labor Relations Board (800 workers, for savings of $130 million); Office of Personnel Management (1,250 staff, for savings of $314

The selloff from the 108.07 high recorded on November 22 has exceeded any minimum downside target I could have projected at the outset.  Also, the high fell a whopping 91 cents shy of my 108.98 upside objective, and that is another reason I've given this correction wide berth with the big pattern shown and its 'locked' point 'a' high. The chart implies the downtrend is bound for a minimum 104.91, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot support. Expect a tradable reversal from there, but if it is short-lived, or if the support is decisively penetrated on first contact, it could signal an important tone change in the bull cycle begun in early October. Since gold has been moving higher with the dollar, we might expect bullion's uptrend to accelerate if the greenback continues to fall.

The December contract cheated us out of a profitable 'mechanical' buy at the green line when it erupted for a 60-point rally without having quite touched our 'launching pad' at x=2598.80. Price action is bullish but not quite bullish enough to make the bounce a shoo-in to achieve the pattern's 2770.70 target.  We'll therefore begin the week without the usual confidence and clarity, so check for updates if there's any movement, since that cannot but shed light on the strength and resilience of the uptrend. My gut feeling is that it will achieve d=2770.70, but without making it look easy. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 3:58 p.m.): More sideways tedium this week has added nothing useful to an indecisive picture. I am proffering this chart nonetheless as a companion to the update moments ago of the Silver tout immediately below. Both need an upsurge through their respective midpoint Hidden Pivot resistances to signal the onset of a meaningful rally.