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The aging bull market smells like it's in a topping process, although it could take a vicious head-fake or two to new highs to set the hook. Last week, I raised the possibility that shares had entered a vortex similar to the one that led to the 1929 Crash. A key similarity is that investors have begun to freak out over tariff news they'd grown accustomed to shrugging off.  Is it possible the reason for the stock market's hysterical behavior lies elsewhere? The mainstream media and its vaunted experts used China's 'rare-earths' threat ten days ago to explain why shares plummeted that Friday. However, when the market began to recover Sunday evening, they changed their tune with sheepish second-day stories about how rare-earth minerals turn out to be not so rare after all. It is the breathtaking stupidity and incompetence of journalists who invent the news that has caused me to tune out their blather and focus solely on charts when I forecast market trends. As far as I've observed over 50 years, price movement is caused mainly by arcane cyclical forces that color our perceptions of news. Is it not, therefore, reasonable to infer that the stock market's ups and downs create the headlines, not, as is almost universally believed, the other way around? A Bitcoin 'Tell'   Far more interesting to me these days than the stock market's headless-chicken act is the spectacular bull market in gold.  Prices have risen by 31% in the last two months, impaling Hidden Pivot targets as though they were as mushy as journalists' brains. Until recently, I'd assumed quotes were rising so steeply because gold, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, had glimpsed some horrible economic catastrophe ahead. However, there is a second possibility -- that gold is caught up in the

A short squeeze on Silver in the London market has pushed quotes easily past a Hidden Pivot target at 50.955 that had seemed ambitious less than a week ago. This has put the December contract on course for additional gains up to D=55.185 over the near term.  Judging from the way buyers fist-pumped through the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 50.943, they are no worse than an 80% shot to achieve D sometime soon. In the somewhat unlikely event of a felicitous swoon over the next 3-5 days, belated buyers should position themselves with a 'mechanical' bid at x=48.820, stop 46.695. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10:35 a.m.): The fresh tout I put out last night at 10:20 p.m. (see above), nailed a quick, easy profit of $10,600 per contract. This graph shows how December Silver swooned overnight to a low at 48.75 that lay within 0.14% of the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. This means you would have endured no more than $350 of adversity to capture a gain of $10,600 (or an additional $3,300, for a total of $14,200, if you held out for the actual, overnight high at 51.160 that occurred somewhat above the red line). The 55.185 rally target remains valid as a minimum upside objective for the next two weeks.

I've put MSFT at the top of the list because it is about to provide the clearest test of whether a bear market has in fact begun.  No matter how bearish one's outlook is for the stock market following Friday's stunning reversal, MSFT would trigger an irresistible 'mechanical' buy signal if it touches the green line (x=506.06), as seems likely. That doesn't necessarily mean the implied bounce will achieve d=547.12, effectively reviving the bull market. More likely in my estimation is that a weak bounce will carries no higher than p=519.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot. Whatever happens, the second most valuable company in the world cannot but reveal the health of the bull market, or lack thereof.

After a cage fight with a 'hidden' resistance I'd flagged at 4178.00, the futures appear to be back on track for a rendezvous with 4128.10, an important target that has kept us confidently bullish for the last 300 hundred points of the rally. The 5020.20 target of an even larger pattern will be in play if 4178.10 is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact.  The chart shows a minor 'reverse' pattern with an outstanding target at 4076.50. Although this falls somewhat shy of 4128.00, it shows that buyers are on a smooth glide path that featured a stress-free 'mechanical' buy on Friday at the green line (x=3987.30. If you've wondered how to get aboard with gold taking only quick, shallow breathers, this chart shows the way. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:38 p.m.):  Bulls vaporized a 4128.00 target that had looked rock-solid last week, and now they appear to have a lock on a minimum 4196.10. Expect the target to be reached over the next 1-3 days. Beware of resistance at exactly 4168.20, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of A=3663.70, but once the December contract is above it, you can raise your expectations to at least 4273.30, or to 4378.40 if any higher. You can also use a pullback to 4063.00 to get long 'mechanically', stop 3957.00.  The bullish pattern from which these numbers were derived starts with A=3660.50 on the daily chart on 9/18. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:19 a.m. EDT):  The current upthrust overshot the 4378.40 target flagged above by just 0.3%, so it's hardly crazy to infer that a top of at least middling importance might be in or very close. You can use a 94.50 trigger interval to get short to test this theory on paper, but trade it only if you were long for at least a $10,000-per-contract

T-Bonds got a strong lift from Friday's panicky sell-off on Wall Street. TLT became a good bet to reach p=91.24, at least, but a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot, especially on first contact, would imply more upside to p2=92.63, and thence to as high as D=94.02 over the near term. Although the pattern is a conventional one with a 'C' low above 'A', it is sufficiently compelling to lend authority to the bullish case. Assuming D is achieved, look for stocks to continue lower, with hard selling in the institutionally driven lunatic sector (a.k.a. the 'Magnificent Seven') and in Bitcoin.

Although in recent years October has not lived up to its reputation for scaring the pants off investors, we should take Friday's punitive reversal seriously, since it could mark the start of a bear market that is arguably years overdue. Although we have grown accustomed to 'freaky' Fridays producing headline events now and then, there was something especially disconcerting about this latest episode. It was driven unmistakably by news that Trump had threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in retaliation for restrictions they placed on so-called rare-earth exports to the U.S. These minerals, while not actually rare, are essential to the production of powerful magnets that are used in electronic hardware, including components vital to the aerospace industry and the military. The U.S. was already focused on establishing alternative sources for rare earth minerals, but it will take time and money, since extracting 'rare earths' from dirt requires processing that is costly and complicated. Downplaying China's Threat  In any event, Western factories and computers are not going to grind to a halt simply because of China's threat. And it is likely to be no more than that, since Trump has cards of his own to play, including access to advanced computer chips that China is presently unable to produce. The foregoing is all secondary to the matter of why U.S. stocks plunged on the news. The broad averages were up sharply in the early going, but by day's end the Dow had reversed by nearly 1200 points. A corresponding reversal took place in the institutionally-driven lunatic sector (aka the Magnificent Seven), wiping trillions of dollars of dubious  'wealth effect' lucre from the macro ledger. Clearly, this was an extreme overreaction to the news, since investors had grown used to Trump's frequent tariff shenanigans. Although the mainstream media

MSFT is in a messy, timid bull cycle that points to 547.12, about 6% above.  I am tracking a long position from 506.06, since I'd suggested buying there 'mechanically' ahead of the pullback. (A separate long position from 493 that was initiated on my say-so is being tracked at GoldenMeadow.eu )  Further progress to 547.12 is hardly a done deal, as the stock has yet to decisively penetrate the midpoint resistance at 519.75. But bears look too tired to resist MSFT's inexorable upward drift, and so a move to the target must be regarded as likely. We may know more as the new week begins, since the E-Mini S&Ps ended the week with a moderate selloff from within a split hair of a rally target I'd drum-rolled at 6803.

I'm still in San Francisco, avoiding the withering heat of Florida's monsoon season. I am also taking a break from my regular commentaries, since writing about the greed and stupidity that have propped up the stock market and the economy for the last decade was growing boring and repetitive. Instead, I've featured paintings by friends, most recently Geoffrey Leckie and Deborah Oropallo. The photograph above was taken by Victor Riess, whom I met two decades ago in Colorado when he took my trading course. An avid bicyclist and musician, Victor is also the best photographer I know. He took the picture above near his home in Lancaster, PA. It is a wintry Pennsylvania scene that vividly recalls landscapes painted by the Dutch master Pieter Bruegel in the mid-1500s at the height of his powers. All of Victor's photos are for sale, including the picture of the Amish girl featured here last week. The work above, a signed, original print, is priced at $32,000. It is approximately 20" x 30". Considering that a collector paid $68,750 for this appalling Peter Hujar photo of a dead cow at Christie's a few years ago, Victor's beautiful landscape, which makes the heart sing, is a great bargain for $32k. For further details, email me at Rick's Picks.

The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Assuming today's top at 48.325 endures for a day or two, try bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid at 47.175, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  An easy breach would portend more slippage to as low as 46.025. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:08 p.m. EDT): The pullback got no lower than 47.685 before silver took off again. The closest Hidden Pivot 'D target you can use for a minimum objective for the next couple of days is 49.835.