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The ballistic, $30 climb since December appears to have topped within spitting distance of my 103.215 target. That could be it, but I'm not counting on it, especially since I have higher targets outstanding in gold. The chart shows an alternative possibility at 122.305 that leaves room for a further rally of 18% above Friday's high.  The pattern itself is unusual, but I am comfortable using it to project yet another, potentially important, high because I've seen this one work before in a roughly matching time frame.  Be prepared for a stall or worse at 109.043, the secondary Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 5:30 p.m.):  Everyone's been telling themselves they'd buy this little monster on weakness. Well, here it is.  The 98.575 target shown in this chart is almost certain to be achieved, but it is tied to a pattern that every clown in the trading world sees and is planning to use.  If you plan to join them, make sure its with a 'camo' trigger that they wouldn't know from a barstool. Alternatively, shorting x=107.035 'mechanically', stop 109.860, will enjoy better odds.  I'll publish more correction targets if and when they become available. For now, though, there are only 'conventional' patterns to use for that purpose.  Because I'd rather not bump heads with a thousand clowns, you'll have to be patient until more rABCs develop, including the obscure ones I prefer.  _______  UPDATE (Jan 27, 8:29 a.m.): Silver picked up strength overnight and never looked back, never mind fulfill the 98.575 correction target identified above. The major Hidden Pivot at 122.305 will likely be achieved and still deserves caution, but I am not going to lay odds that it will cap the bull market.

If you can't guess what commodity the chart shows, you must be living on Mars. It is in fact a long-term picture of silver, which went ballistic in December.  The price has doubled since, blowing out a $50 top that had stood since 1980. That price became a part of silver's legend, since it is where one of the wealthiest men in the world, oil tycoon Nelson Bunker Hunt, met his financial Waterloo. With his brothers, Lamar and William, 'Bunky' had attempted to corner the market by buying up silver and futures contracts amounting to about a third of the world's supply.  Comex regulators responded by raising margin requirements so high that there were just two players left in the game: the Hunts and Eastman Kodak, a huge industrial user of silver. From a record $50.45 per ounce, the price plunged by half in mere days, forcing the Hunts to sell nearly everything they owned to meet margin calls.  In retrospect, they seem not to have broken any rules. However, the Comex was forced to crush them in order to stabilize the metals market. What Does It Mean? Silver's current rise has been orderly, more or less, but with a pitch so steep that it caught many players with their pants down.  No reason to feel sorry for them, since they are ethically and morally on a level with child molesters, broad-tossers and cannibals.  But the radical shift in precious-metal prices relative to all other classes of investable assets raises a question that should concern us all.  For it is not happening in a vacuum, and we can only guess at what it will mean years down the road. Will silver resume a monetary role? Is Trump licking his chops over the prospect of borrowing against all of the gold

Readers can be forgiven for wondering how long the 'topping process' I've alluded to over the last several months will drag on. As you will have long since concluded, no one can answer that question with confidence. For all that we supposed experts know, the bull market begun in 2009 could still be chugging blithely along two years from now when Trump's successor takes office.  But this will be the last you'll hear from me about a topping process, even if the bear market for which it will set the hook is as likely as tomorrow's sunrise. It will be a doozy, catalyzed by the unwinding of an Everything Bubble that already owns us, up to and including M&A superstars and big-time real estate developers. The implosion will inflict hard times on most Americans, especially Baby Boomers who went all-in with Nvidia shares, private equity schemes and rental properties mortgaged to the eaves. How worried should you be?  I'd suggest taking doomsday predictions with a grain of salt. Speaking as a die-hard permabear who has been predicting a Second Great Depression for as long as anyone can remember, I'd be the first to concede there is no reason why the Dow Industrials and the S&Ps could not co  ascend, possibly doubling or even tripling over the next 5–10 years.  Just realize that any reported gains in the standard of living would be largely illusory, even as quality-of-life amenities that we took for granted in the 1950s continued toward extinction. Things like doctors making house calls, and mothers being able to stay home with their children. That was America's Renaissance, even if no one knew it at the time. Science to the Rescue! Technology will come through for us as it always has, right?  AI wizardry, huge productivity gains and millions

The futures were on a 'mechanical' sell signal to D=6925.25 when the week ended.  It came in the final hour of the session, well after the trade was triggered 'conventionally' on the way down on Thursday afternoon.  Price action continued a lengthening string of Fridays so boring that a trader fixated on his screen could fall into a trance. We may not know for a few weeks or longer whether this has been topping action or  alternatively a consolidation for a run at higher prices.  In any event, I wouldn't suggest bottom-fishing at the target of the pattern shown, since it is compromised by a coincident low on Wednesday that is bound to attract a thousand clowns. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 12:40 a.m.): Sellers went bananas over more Trump tariff bullshit, sending the futures down to 6911.00 so far. That's 2.0 points from the 6909.00 target I billboarded in the chat room last Tuesday as a back-up-the-truck number.  It still is, provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger on the hourly chart. The tactic is explained in detail in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available free to subscribers. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 10:10 a.m.): Sellers crushed the 6909.00 support, putting the futures on course for a rendezvous with 6819.75 or worse.  In theory, 6869 has triggered a 'mechanical' buy and would be the second signaled at the green line of a bullish pattern that projects to 7163 (60-min, A=6596 on Nov 21). That pattern would be wrecked, however, and stopped out, with a print at 6771.00.

The stock spent most of the week lollygagging near the 457.04 'secondary Hidden Pivot' of the bearish pattern shown.  Its eventual  target is 444.89, a $15 fall from here. However, the breach of p was such a laborious affair that I cannot guarantee that it will be achieved.  But if p2 is decisively exceeded to the downside, or if the stock closes for two consecutive days beneath it, odds of further fall to 444.89 would shorten significantly. For now, 444.89 should be viewed as a worst-case low for the near term. It is also a back-up-the-truck number for bottom-fishing, since even with the somewhat obvious pattern, D=444.89 cannot possibly give way without a struggle. ________ UPDATE (Jan 21, 5:57 p.m.): After the stock MSFT has put in a tradable bottom at or very near 431.89, the rally along a big-picture C-D leg would have the potential to reach 593.79. Seems farfetched, I know, but the stock will face a test we can rely on near 469.29, a major midpoint Hidden Pivot that coincides with the 2024 top. Neither of those Hidden Pivots exists yet, and their exact, respective locations will depend on where the actual low occurs. Please note that the time stamp for this post, along with the last price, come from my update in the chat room yesterday. 

There is nothing to suggest this vehicle will not reach the target at 135.90, a once-unimaginable milestone that was first signaled in mid-November when GDXJ crossed up through the green line. The subsequent, confident move through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 111.63, significantly shortened the odds the target would be realized.  This now appears all but certain, and although it would be implicitly bullish for gold, we shouldn't be too concerned if the respective moves appear to be somewhat out of synch. The ABCD pattern is sufficiently clear to imply that the correction following the final run-up to the target could be long and painful. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 11:10 a.m.):  It is headed to 139,55 at least, or to 144.86 if any higher. Currently 134.68, just off the high.

The chart is featured in the current commentary, but let me add a cautionary note for subscribers only. The 50K milestone that lies just a hair above Friday's record settlement closely coincides with the 49,355 'D' target of the pattern shown in the inset. My gut feeling is that the so-far slight overshoot of the target happened because traders were intent on hitting 50K regardless of any Hidden Pivots that may have stood in the way. We should infer in any case that there is double stopping power here, and that a significant pullback is distinctly possible, even if it turns out not to have been the start of a bear market. Since we should always have a higher target ready just in case, the 53,022 Hidden Pivot noted in the upper-right corner of the chart can serve that purpose. Assume it will be achieved if the Indoos close for two consecutive weekly bars above 50,600. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30):  The Dow has been jerking bears' chains with a Wile E. Coyote dance inches from the potential top I'd warned about at 50,000. Sellers will need to penetrate the red line (p=48,270), however, before I can diss this gas-bag with enthusiasm and still sound credible.  Even then, it would be a good bet to fall no further than D=46,918, hinting that the broad averages, unlike bullion, are in shallow correction that will cause little pain or even anxiety. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8): The Dow broke out last week, but the follow-through could be less than spectacular. This chart shows a compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 50,819, just 704 points, or 1.4%, above Friday's closing price.

The futures punched through the 79.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown on Friday, but when they settled above it, that all but guaranteed the uptrend will continue to at least 85.235, the 'D' target of the pattern.  Because the point 'B' high is pure 'sausage', I've made certain to start the pattern with a distinctive one-off 'A' low.  For that reason, D=85.235 should show precise stopping power that can be shorted with a 'camo' trigger. Any further progress to the upside would likely encounter new resistance at 86.860, the target derived from sliding 'A' down to December 31's 69.575 low. It would be shortable as well. _______ UPDATE (9;38 a.m.): The 85.235 target has stopped the rally, but not precisely and probably not for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 9:17 a.m. EST):  March Silver's decisive push through p=86.235 this morning has put D=103.215 solidly in play: https://bit.ly/3NHjcnz

GDXJ's ascent over the last month left quite a mess on the hourly chart, but it all fits so nicely within the 13-point channel shown that we can probably rely on it for predicting important turns both above and below.  An ambitious target at 135.90 has served as a bullish lodestone for quite a while, and even though I am growing increasingly skeptical that it will be reached any time soon, meaning with the sensationally steep slope of the last six months, I'm ready to set my skepticism aside if this vehicle vaults the trendline and holds above it for at least two days.