August Crude remains on track for a rendezvous with the bullish target shown, 86.66. It might require a wrenching pullback first, and so I'll mention that the red line (p=79.55) could be bought 'mechanically' with a theoretical stop-loss at 77.18. That would risk nearly $10k on four contracts initially, so we'll need to come up with an appropriate 'camouflage" strategy if the opportunity materializes. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19): Crude took a pounding toward the end of the week and now looks like it could bottom lower than where I'd initially predicted. Use p2=78.77 of this pattern as a minimum downside projection for now. You can also attempt to bottom-fish there with a reverse pattern and 'camouflage' trigger. That means executing the trade using a trigger from a chart of small degree. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 8:56 a.m.): With today's power dive, crude is about to bottom at or near d=76.26, the Hidden Pivot target I flagged yesterday in the chatoom when I swapped this contract for the August. Here's the updated chart.
The futures closed effortlessly above a 5606 'hidden' resistance that was not exactly chopped liver, so we should infer they are now bound for at least 5678.50, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. It is theoretically shortable, especially if you know how to craft a risk-averse, camouflage 'trigger,' but your trading bias should be bullish until the target is reached. A pullback to the red line (p=5473.00) can be bought 'mechanically', stop 5405.50, but I don't expect Mr Market to gift us with such a generous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (July 10, 5:30 p.m.): Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Here's an unconventional pattern with a 5879.50 target that will ave to be treated as viable because it's all we've got at the moment. Trade with a bullish bias until it is reached, or don't trade at all. Yes, the rally could fail at p2=5726, but I wouldn't want to put ideas in your head.
If T-Bonds continue their hellish slide into the abyss, this ETF proxy for long-dated Treasurys should be hitting 70 around election time. So much for Wall Street's misplaced "hopes" for a helping hand from the Federal Reserve. That won't stop speculation, every time the Open Market Committee meets, that perhaps a smidgen of easing is coming toward the end of 2024. Will they never learn? Europe's moribund economies desperately need a global monetary blowout to revive the illusion of growth, but Powell isn't playing ball. Tom Luongo thinks they will stir up a banking crisis this fall in order to scare Powell into complicity. Under the circumstances, it's hard to imagine that they won't try this. If the crisis is scary enough to cause Powell to capitulate, the Davos crowd may regret getting what they wished for,
Last week's descent to the green line (x=105.03) has triggered a 'mechanical' buy there that rates a 6.4 on a 1 to 10 scale. That means the trade looks moderately appealing and has an approximately 64% chance of rallying to at least p=106.07 before DXY could dip below C=103.99, stopping out the pattern. A return to p would not necessarily be the end of the bull cycle begun from 100.62 last December, but the dollar could still spend months in tedium with little progress in either direction.
The dog days of summer have returned with a vengeance to Florida this year, especially in my home. The air conditioner's condenser coil sprang a leak, which is hardly unusual considering that it's eight years old. What is unusual, and causing more than a little inconvenience, is that the broken part will take a month for the factory to replace. So far, I haven't been able to determine why the manufacturer, Lennox, would be having such a hard time scrounging up the part. Regardless, if you're in the market for a new cooling system, consider Trane, Rheem or some other brand before you plunk down $8k on a Lennox system that could fail in the intense summer heat of such hellholes as Miami, Phoenix, Houston or Charleston. The interior temperature of my home has continued to rise daily and is now at 91 degrees. There is no cooling it off at night, either, since the air has been soupy, with temperatures only a few degrees cooler than during the daytime. It's an odd time of year for the pace of so many things to be quickening. The stock market, for one. Far from being locked in summer doldrums, the bull rally in the lunatic stocks has lurched into high gear and is being loosely controlled by the one-decision whizzes who manage money. They are not so much pushing shares higher as allowing them to rise on urgent short-covering to speculative heights that in the past have invariably led to disaster. The talking heads say investors sniff Fed easing, finally -- and who could begrudge them a wild display of revelry to make up for their merely festive toga party earlier in the year, after they realized the central bank had no plans to loosen. Six-Three = MAGA High-Fives On the
Bulls took charge last week, a development I had not expected so soon. An all but certain test of the midpoint resistance at p=32.150 seemed assured when the futures ended the week an inch off the intraday high. The pattern looks too obvious to yield a very tightly stopped short, but price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot cannot but give us a firm handle on trend strength. If the Auggies pop through the resistance and close above it for two consecutive weeks, they'll be well on their way to delivering D=35.40 before summer ends.
Microsoft apexed last week just 71 cents (0.1%) below a long-term target at 456.88 I'd billboarded here. It happened on Thursday, but on Friday the stock plunged to 446.41, most of it coming in the final 30 minutes of the session. This put the previous day's record high in sharper relief, increasing its potential importance. It also wiped out the entire week's gains, presumably creating a layer of urgent supply of a kind that this stock's handlers are not accustomed to coping with. Expect more backing and filling in the week ahead and a test of lows at 441.27 and 436.72 recorded on the way up during the last two weeks. _______ UPDATE (Jul 2): There was no backing and filling whatsoever. Instead, MSFT turned Friday's criminally rigged plunge into a v-shaped swoon powered by short-covering. The 456.88 target 'should' still contain bulls, albeit imprecisely, given the obviousness of the pattern. If it doesn't, don't count on 462.80, the 'D' target associated with the sucky marquee 'A' at 213.43, to do the job precisely either. An 'extension' target derived solely from the C-D leg lies at D=509.40, where A=309.45 on 9/29/23. p2=479.06 for that pattern, and don't think it would be impossibly cute for the final top to occur at 494.23, midway between p2 and D. That is a price point so nicely ensconced in our discomfort zone that no one on earth could be watching it.
Last week's thumb-wrestling match ended in a draw as bears failed to push the Auggies down to the 2281.00 target shown. The best they could muster was to diddle the secondary Hidden Pivot support at 2306.40 for nearly two days. The week ended with the futures mildly on the upswing, although a further push to the green line (x=2357.20) would trigger a 'mechanical' short. The opportunity looks second-rate, so I'll recommend watching from the sidelines. A bigger picture shows a nearly three-month consolidation with potential to 2520 or higher. Somewhat lower prices remain likely for now, though.
The easy move through p=79.55 in mid-June strongly suggests the August contract is bound for at least D=86.66. We can hope nonetheless that p2=83.11, the secondary Hidden Pivot, slows crude's ascent; otherwise, pump prices, along with the price of nearly everything else, will receive a turboboost before summer is over. If there's a silver lining, the pattern is compelling enough to imply there's no great likelihood of a further push into the 90s.
Friday's power dive was more than a minor setback, especially since it occurred before TLT was able to test March 28's key 'external' peak at 95.02. The kamikaze dive was the equivalent of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow, meaning it portends yet more weeks of winter before bulls could conceivably recover the gumption to try again. That's assuming they do, but the outlook would worsen if last week's two-gap downtrend continues more or less unabated until it exceeds 90.65, an 'external' low recorded on June 10 that begs to be tested.
