So much for the extravagantly bullish speculation that I allowed in the last few touts and in a recent commentary. This vehicle continues to look like hell, and so we'll revert to the still unachieved downside target at 80.84 as a minimum objective. An upthrust of 4.44 points would be reason to open our imaginations to the possibility of a bullish reversal, and it would shift our trading bias to bullish. However, until such time as that happens, there is no reason to think that the powerful rally in Q3 was other than a nasty tease.
The chart above shows RCA's spectacular climb to the Mother of All Tops in 1929. The larger chart that frames it shows what Nvidia shares would have to do to replicate the peaks and troughs that set up RCA's plunge into hell. Notice that the stock's final top (#4) was just marginally higher than one recorded six months earlier. NVDA's chart would look nearly identical if the stock were to hit 1000 in May. It got a potential running start on this with last week's 120-point leap to 877.35. Nvidia is the dominant supplier of hardware and software for AI and makes a good comparison with RCA. The latter had a commanding position in one of the hottest games in town, home entertainment. The company's console radios and record players provided a big step up from the days when a spinet piano in the parlor was the main source of music in the home. How Hot Is Nvidia? So how hot is Nvidia? Two months ago, it became the third company in U.S. history to achieve a $2 trillion valuation. Moreover, it reached that benchmark just 180 days after hitting the $1 trillion mark. That compares with 500 days for the two biggest companies, Apple and Microsoft. Nvidia is also regarded as one of the most exciting places to work in Silicon Valley at a time when many firms have been downsizing. Half of the firm's workers reportedly made more than $228,000 last year. The company's hold on investors' imagination of the future has produced a buying mania in the stock that is every bit as heated as the one that occurred in RCA nearly a century ago. Will their charts ultimately coincide, implying a bloodbath ahead? Quite possibly not, especially if the coincident charts become too widely observed in
Although 2024's steep rally from $69 failed just shy of an important Hidden Pivot target at 88.54 (see inset), I expect a second-wind push to get there, surpassing the key external peak at 88.31 recorded in June 2022. That would create an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree sufficiently powerful to push crude to $100, a psychologically terrifying level in a world where inflation has stubbornly refused to cool off. I am bullish on crude in part because the recent high occurred in too obvious a place -- i.e., slightly below the D target of a pattern that virtually every trader would have observed, and less than a dollar below the June 2022 peak. This doubly obvious resistance' begs to be tested, and so it shall be. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28): The 88.54 rally target is still my minimum upside objective for the near term, but here's why the futures may have to come down to 80.39 first. The equivalent numbers for the June contract, respectively, are 88.31 and 80.03.
The stock's steepening fall last week put more distance between it and the all-time high a month ago at 430.82. That was just 24 cents from a longstanding target I'd said could cap the bull market begun in 2009. Perhaps it has, although I'd like to see MSFT fall at least 30%, to $300, before I consider the prediction fulfilled. Odds of this will shorten if the new week begins with just slight weakness. Anything exceeding 397.21 to the downside would breach three (!) external lows on the daily chart, creating a powerful impulse leg with devastating potential.
The previous tout suggested the dollar could range-trade for a long time between 100 and 110. However, if it merely pushes above the 107.99 'external' peak shown in the chart, that would command our attention and respect. It would also be something to fear, since a resurgent dollar would put the global economy back on a path to the deflationary bust I've predicted for many years. A rally piercing the 107.99 resistance would be all but certain to hit p=109.66, providing a test of the most important resistance the Dollar Index has faced in years.
Bulls continued to lose ground last week, but the weakness was not quite sufficient to push this vehicle beneath the 82.42 point 'C' low of the bullish pattern we have been using speculatively. If the pattern were to hold sway, which is looking increasingly doubtful, an extended uptrend could take TLT as high as 150.22. That implies a spectacular bull market, one driven by vanishing inflation and expansionary yield curves. This seems so unlikely at this point that we should view any upturn in TLT with caution, if not to say suspicion, Realize in any event that it would not be unusual for a bull market to be born in obscurity and for no apparent reason.
I only belatedly discovered the reason for the hard selloff a week ago from 2448.80. That number lies just 0.70 from the target of the very gnarly pattern shown. I still think the June contract has a better than 50% chance of achieving a somewhat higher target at 2514.60 given here earlier. However, we should be very cautious at the moment, since this corrective pattern on the weekly chart suggests the June contract will fall to at least 2309.50 before it finds traction. Worst case would be 2170.20, and we cannot rule it out, but we'll be looking to bottom-fish at p=2309.50 (slightly adjusted from last week) in any case. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 1:35 a.m.): The clowns/thieves/Masters of the Universe who erroneously believe they are manipulating this vehicle were themselves manipulated into a nearly $40 plunge when June Gold fell Monday night to a so-far low at 2308.70 -- less than $1 from the Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged above. The $19 bounce that has occurred so far would need to hit 2348.00 to move the futures out of the danger zone; otherwise, look for a further drop to at least 2239.90 (see my chart), a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished as aggressively as the one at 2309.50.
The sharp bounce from p=27.71 puts a similar reversal in June Gold in a more bullish light. The latter has bounced without having touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, suggesting that sellers may have unfinished business. However, Silver reached its p support almost exactly, suggesting it has fully corrected the powerful uptrend begun from 22.19 in mid-February. On balance, I favor the more bullish interpretation, which suggests both vehicles are likely to take out their respective recent highs without first exceeding last week's lows. My rally target remains 30.08, a Hidden Pivot that's equivalent to a 2514.60 target in June Gold.
I still expect bitcoin to make an important top at 80,546. My confidence is based on the ease and decisiveness of the move through p=48,015. Although there was a brief stall there, Bertie not only popped through it on the next bar, it also came close to touching p2 on the bar before finishing just below it. Taken together, these factors suggest that the D target has a high probability of being achieved. Also, because there are no alternatives for the A, B and C coordinates shown - i.e., the pattern is 'locked' -- 80,546 is likely to work precisely as a reversal spot. Meanwhile, a pullback to p=48,015 should be viewed as a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 37,171. There are ways to cut the entry risk by at least 90%, so don't hesitate to seek timely guidance in the chat room if the opportunity should materialize during regular-session hours. _______ UPDATE (May 5): If the latest shakedown to 56,519 was prelude to the move I've been predicting to at least 80,546, Bertie should push decisively past the trendline shown in this chart, and soon. It will come in around 63,684 when the week begins, with a declining slope of about 170 points a day.
The portfolio managers who rig the markets appear to be losing their touch. Usually, they are able to short-squeeze stocks in the 'lunatic sector' -- our label for the egregiously mis-named 'Magnificent Seven' -- when earnings are announced after the close. This quasi-criminal manipulation can add hundreds of billions of dollars to the world's 'wealth effect' in a literal blink of an eye when it occurs in a mega-cap stock such as NVDA or AAPL. But the greedy con-game conspicuously failed to 'grow wealth' on Friday after Netflix reported adding droves of new subscribers in the previous quarter. The good news supposedly caught dull-witted analysts by surprise, even though a half-smart chimpanzee could have seen it coming after Netflix put the screws to millions of viewers who had been using friends' passwords. The stock should have vaulted into outer space, since, in a bull market, all earnings announcements are treated as wildly bullish regardless of whether the news is actually bullish. That's how bull markets work. Not This Time Not this time, though, Instead of taking the obligatory short-squeeze leap into outer space, Netflix feebly head-faked to stop out a $640 peak from ten days earlier by a paltry $1. That peak and Friday's slightly higher one merely dented a Hidden Pivot resistance at 634.14 that we'd told subscribers a couple of weeks ago could cap the bull-market. On Friday, if everything had gone according to the script after earning were announced, the stock should have begun to gyrate wildly, allowing DaBoyz to work the swings like killer whales herding dolphins. Lo, NFLX simply continued to fall, ending the day $90 below the fake-out high. Ordinarily, we wouldn't read too much into DaBoyz' failure to hold NFLX aloft so that they could distribute millions of shares to widows, pensioners and
