The chart is featured in the current commentary, but let me add a cautionary note for subscribers only. The 50K milestone that lies just a hair above Friday's record settlement closely coincides with the 49,355 'D' target of the pattern shown in the inset. My gut feeling is that the so-far slight overshoot of the target happened because traders were intent on hitting 50K regardless of any Hidden Pivots that may have stood in the way. We should infer in any case that there is double stopping power here, and that a significant pullback is distinctly possible, even if it turns out not to have been the start of a bear market. Since we should always have a higher target ready just in case, the 53,022 Hidden Pivot noted in the upper-right corner of the chart can serve that purpose. Assume it will be achieved if the Indoos close for two consecutive weekly bars above 50,600. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30): The Dow has been jerking bears' chains with a Wile E. Coyote dance inches from the potential top I'd warned about at 50,000. Sellers will need to penetrate the red line (p=48,270), however, before I can diss this gas-bag with enthusiasm and still sound credible. Even then, it would be a good bet to fall no further than D=46,918, hinting that the broad averages, unlike bullion, are in shallow correction that will cause little pain or even anxiety. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8): The Dow broke out last week, but the follow-through could be less than spectacular. This chart shows a compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 50,819, just 704 points, or 1.4%, above Friday's closing price. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20): No change: 50,819 still looms as a potentially important number.
The futures punched through the 79.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown on Friday, but when they settled above it, that all but guaranteed the uptrend will continue to at least 85.235, the 'D' target of the pattern. Because the point 'B' high is pure 'sausage', I've made certain to start the pattern with a distinctive one-off 'A' low. For that reason, D=85.235 should show precise stopping power that can be shorted with a 'camo' trigger. Any further progress to the upside would likely encounter new resistance at 86.860, the target derived from sliding 'A' down to December 31's 69.575 low. It would be shortable as well. _______ UPDATE (9;38 a.m.): The 85.235 target has stopped the rally, but not precisely and probably not for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 9:17 a.m. EST): March Silver's decisive push through p=86.235 this morning has put D=103.215 solidly in play: https://bit.ly/3NHjcnz
GDXJ's ascent over the last month left quite a mess on the hourly chart, but it all fits so nicely within the 13-point channel shown that we can probably rely on it for predicting important turns both above and below. An ambitious target at 135.90 has served as a bullish lodestone for quite a while, and even though I am growing increasingly skeptical that it will be reached any time soon, meaning with the sensationally steep slope of the last six months, I'm ready to set my skepticism aside if this vehicle vaults the trendline and holds above it for at least two days.
Bitcoin tallied enough votes to remain on the list, but that doesn't mean it will get any respect just for being here. This week's chart avoids visualizing an ABCD pattern that would probably prove too conventional for a rabid badger like this one. Instead, I have extrapolated an imagined head-and-shoulders that follows from the suggestive homunculus traced out so far. If it materializes as imagined, we should see a potentially important top near 113,000 in April. And what a tedious slog that would be --unsatisfying for bulls and bears alike, since the former have long expected Bitcoin to use $100,000 as a launching pad for a moon shot to $200k or higher, while the latter, regardless of how high the king of cryptos goes, will never be convinced it is good money.
The Dow is poised to hit 50,000 this week, a milestone that would have seemed surreal when the blue chip average, plagued by covid, was bottoming near 18,000 six years ago. Although there can be little doubt that Trump helped kick stocks into high gear, one could argue that a powerfully bullish economic cycle made the man rather than the other way around. Stated another way, the stock market's spectacular rally reflects a cyclical mood-change across America that made Trump's election not merely possible, but inevitable. Would shares be at these heights with Kamala Harris in the White House? It seems implausible, since she could never have matched Trump's ambitious agenda. This is not to suggest that all or even most of his initiatives will succeed. In fact, some of the most important ones could lay an egg. Tariffs, for instance. They amount to little more than a new tax on global trade, with consequences that have yet to produce a clear result, let alone a positive one. His promise to make life more affordable for most Americans could also be a non-starter for reasons explained here a couple of weeks ago. And his plan to revitalize Venezuela's oil production has already been labeled 'uninvestible' by the CEO of ExxonMobil. As for the reshoring of manufacturing. no one is talking about how revived and new factories would have to be practically worker-less to compete with heavily robotized plants in South Korea, China, Japan and elsewhere. What Jobs? And what about Trump's plan to radically reorganize the mortgage market so that young people can buy houses? Although this sounds appealing, what will be the source of their income? The job market is changing so rapidly, especially with AI increasingly replacing more white-collar workers, that even seasoned recruiters can no longer predict
We've been using an ambitious rally target at 135.90 for a while, but the pattern shown looks so heavy that it's time to focus on corrective patterns on the lesser charts. This will give us a more finely nuanced 'read' on trend strength, and perhaps even telegraph an exuberant leap into the bearish gap that occurred when the markets opened on Monday after Christmas. The immediate target is a 'd' Hidden Pivot at 115.12, and it would need to be penetrated easily and decisively to suggest a very-bullish 'island-gap reversal' in the making, Alternatively, if the rally fails, brace for backsliding to around 108, where GDXJ consolidated in early December for its powerful run-up to the 122 peak recorded on December 26.
The speculative frenzy in silver has provided welcome relief from AI claptrap, but will it last? There are a hundred theories about why silver has come exuberantly to life after lagging gold for so long. I've been puzzled myself, since my technical runes suggest that gold futures could make an important top at $5132, about $800 above Friday's settlement price. Silver would likely peak at the same time, unless the squeeze on physical supply were to pick up enough climactic energy to cause an historical readjustment in the gold:silver ratio. The Founders thought 15:1 was the correct peg, implying silver could be trading for $342 with gold at $5132. That sounds farfetched, but stranger things have happened in the financial world, especially in markets caught in short squeezes. What is most peculiar about the current run on silver is that it probably couldn't have occurred without Trump's blessings. He has said he wants a much higher gold price in order to monetize America's few remaining, unhocked assets (including residential real estate). Letting silver off the leash would make almost everyone feel at least a little richer. The problem is, some of Trump's most powerful buddies in the banking business are short silver up the wazoo. Citi and B of A alone reportedly have loaned out at interest $4.5 billion of silver they do not possess, exposing themelves to potentially catastrophic losses if AG quotes should soar anew. Trump's Fortunes And what if gold goes no higher than $5132? A corresponding top in silver followed by a steep slide in both could cap Trump's fortunes. It would certainly destroy the comforting illusion that financial markets are under control. Of course, crazy ideas like that can only persist in bull markets. If stock averages were to sell off by 30%-40%, which they
I predicted earlier in the week that this hoax would probably go no higher than 90,941 over the near term. In fact, an easily tradeable top did occur at 90,935 on Friday, meaning the forecast missed by just 0.006%, or six-thousandths of a percentage point. That's pretty routine for spontaneous trade recommendations posted in the chat room, as any subscriber could attest, and it could have made an alert scalper more than $2,000 if he or she got long when the target was posted, then another $2180 if the position was reversed ahead of the subsequent swoon. Sadly, the reaction in the chat room to this dead-center bullseye was muted, to put it mildly, leaving me with little incentive to continue covering Bitcoin. Accordingly, unless I hear from at least a dozen subscribers who want BTC to remain on the list, I will substitute another symbol, presumably one that has greater significance for the economy. If you are pimply-faced robinhoodie who has followed my Bitcoin touts surreptitiously, your vote, too, will count, but you'll need to subscribe to Rick's Picks for money to record your preference in the chat room.
The reverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown yields a target up near 7,250, implying that 2026 will begin with a bullish bang. I don't often refer to H&S patterns because they can be found anywhere one looks for them. However, there is no denying that they describe a telling picture of supply and demand, and that bulls have the upper hand in the picture shown. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, a mere 7026.50 is as high as I can comfortably project. That implies the head-and-shoulders effect will be stillborn, a possibility to which we should remain open-minded but without bias. If buyers blow past that number, it would shorten the odds of a follow-through to 7250 or so.
Although the trend has been bearish since the stock at peaked at 555.45 in July, bears have struggled lately to achieve the implied correction target at 444.95. Most immediately, I expect the stock to run up to the 496.09 target of a minor pattern. If it takes out the pattern's 'C' low at 482.09 (12/19) first, however, I'd consider the possibility that stocks are in a bear market more seriously. Because of its solid revenue stream and its pre-eminence in the lunatic sector (aka the Magnificent Seven), Microsoft remains my #1 bellwether for the 16-year-old bull market.
