The big, lovely pattern shown (see inset) should serve our purposes for trading and analysis as the new week begins. That means we could have bought p=3847.13 on Friday and made a few bucks. As a practical matter, however, I rarely advise initiating a position at the closing bell. We have no way of knowing with confidence whether the midpoint support will be breached. Indeed, for all we can tell, the so-far modest rally from this Hidden Pivot could mark an important low for this correction of the bear market rally begun in October. However, we do know that if the futures relapse and smash p=3847, that would set them on a path down to at least p2=3667.19, or perhaps even to D=3487.25. Both can be bottom-fished, but the larger opportunity would lie in getting short on the way down. Pivoteers will notice that I've used the middle peak of three to fix a point 'A' high. I refer to such middle-of-the-road coordinates as Pontiac/Oldsmobile peaks to drive home the point that they don't usually work. In this case, though, my choice is justified by the bounce precisely from p, which tends to corroborate the pattern itself. It will be trustworthy in any case (i.e., good enough for government work) with regard to the 'read' a decisive breach of p would give us on trend strength. Here's a smaller chart of a pattern that I posted Friday afternoon. I said it would control DaBoyz' manipulations, as it indeed did. Notice that it signaled two profitable 'mechanical' buys during the afternoon. The 3893.50 'D' rally target is still viable, pending whatever stupid tricks the Sunday night sleazeballs can gin up. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 6:12 p.m.): DaBoyz don't know they are being ruled by this pattern in the June contract right
I could just as easily have supplied a big, bearish pattern peak to begin the week, but I settled on a more modest discouragement, since AAPL seems reluctant to fall apart. Still, rallies have been routinely failing to exceed prior peaks, and that's reason enough to favor the bearish (i.e., corrective) case for now. The graph shows the stock to have triggered a 'mechanical' short last Monday with a heavily engineered lunatic leap that would have added nearly $100 billion to the U.S. economy in mere minutes. The subsequent relapse 'should' be able to hit p=146.23, but it's not predictable at the moment whether further weakness will be sufficient to crush it. If AAPL's canny sponsors seize the upper hand and run the stock up the old wazoo, look for yet another fraudulent but potent rally to 159.96 (180-min, A=.141.32 on 2/1). Otherwise, the 135.07 target shown will remain viable as a downside objective. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 9:03 a.m.): The smash low of AAPL's $4.70 reversal from an overnight peak has bounced from within a nickel of the 146.23 Hidden Pivot noted above. [This occurred an hour before the regular session opened.] The stock has been there before, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line that would have required taking a partial profit (at p) this morning. Let's see if the low holds. If not, p2=140.65 would be in play as a minimum downside objective. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:23 p.m.): The stock appear bound for 160.09, the Hidden Pivot 'D' target shown in this chart.
Friday's robust upturn came from within 156 points, or less than 1%, of the 19425 correction target shown (see inset). That put it slightly out of range for bottom-fishing, at least via our usual methods, but the 700-point rebound that ensued suggests the uptrend has the potential to get legs. The smart money trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices will not be able to push the recovery too aggressively, however, since it is not short covering that drives rallies in bitcoin these days, but rather the absence of selling pressure, particularly when the stock market is on a bullish tear. I won't update this tout unless something significant happens, but I will respond diligently to any queries in the chat room.
The dollar fell hard on Friday, wiping out gains achieved earlier in the week, but not before thrusting above two 'external' peaks recorded in, respectively, early December and early January. The impulse leg had sufficient power that even a relapse that takes out Friday's low should still be viewed as corrective. The next big rally target would be into the 106-107 range or even higher, but first buyers would have to get past a 'voodoo number' at 106,42 mentioned here earlier. If this scenario plays out, then gold, which rebounded sharply as last week ended, would once again come under pressure. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 11:35 p.m.): It's fascinating to see the dollar trading like a penny stock, leaping this morning from a low that lay just four pennies beneath a stop-out low from two days earlier. DXY appears headed for exactly 106.73, assuming it can overcome the very precise stall at p=105.09 of the pattern shown here. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 9:25 p.m.): The midpoint Hidden Pivot (p) at 105.09 stopped the rally dead in its tracks, sending DXY plummeting. Now, if p2=103.27 fails as support, expect the next leg down to hit 102.66 exactly, followed by a tradeable bounce. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:30 p.m.): The Dollar Index liquefied the clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support at 102.66 noted above, testifying to the urgency of the Fed's campaign to destroy the dollar. Recent price action implies DXY will take out the spike low at 100.82 recorded on Feb 2. Here's the chart.
[This week's commentary was written by David J. Isham a longtime subscriber to Rick's Picks. A real estate investor and trader, David lives with his family in Marin County.] For Americans eager to embrace socialism, China's take on the so-called 15-minute city will warm your hearts. As an urban planning concept, the 15-minute city aims to put all of the usual neighborhood amenities within easy walking distance: grocery stores, parks, urgent care centers, banks, movie theaters, etc. Sounds like a great idea, right? However, in the Peoples Republic of China, the government has been adding a digital innovation that Chairman Mao would have loved: scanners that require one to submit a QR code in order to move around. If you live in one of the newly wired cities and have criticized government policy on social media, or you haven’t received your latest booster shot, your impaired social credit score will prevent you from leaving your neighborhood zone. Could it happen in the U.S.? Arguably, the idea had a test run when many Americans and their elected leaders clamored for vaccination passports and all kinds of access restrictions for the un-jabbed. Fortunately, the former never came to pass and the latter did not spread into the American heartland. However, if implementing a social credit system were to be placed on a national ballot, does anyone doubt that it would garner almost as many votes as Biden supposedly received in the 2020 election? Tune in to the discussion at @songpinganq on Twitter if you want a glimpse of what you may someday be up against. Seeking Out Good Neighbors Although a grim future is not set in stone, I've thought about a time when my children might not be allowed to work, to attend college or even enter a grocery store without
When stocks are nitwitting their way blithely higher as they did on Friday, we tend to lose perspective. Check out the weekly chart (inset), however, before you get carried away by last week's presumably pointless excitement. That said, because the rally hit the green line of a legitimate bullish ABCD, we need to pay heed. That means that p=4135.00 should be used as a minimum upside target for the near term, with D=4345.00 held in mind as a worst case (for bears, that is). Price action at the lower number will be crucial to determining how much gumption bulls have left. Those of you who live to get short after missing out on 100-point rallies can certainly attempt it at p, but keep in mind that you'll have a profit to cushion your stop if you make a few bucks on the way up. As always, if you are inclined to bet against the trend, I recommend using a risk-averse trigger such as is possible with rABC set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 4:55 p.m,.): Powell's hawkish words weighed heavily on stocks the whole day. This is despite the fact that every trader and pundit on Earth knew what he'd say. That's one reason that I think the steep selloff will end at somewhat lower levels on Wednesday. An important low sits at 3925.00 that will hold, implying that the theoretical buy that triggered today will make money. The 4135.00 target given above will remain theoretically viable as long as 3925.00 holds. For explicit and potentially tradeable details, check out the recording of today's impromptu session. The link will be out shortly, emailed to everyone. _____ UPDATE (Mar 9, 5:10 p.m.) Check out the discussion in the chat room for a detailed , time-stamped discussion of the dead-center, 3909.50 bullseye in today's
Last week's five-day stall just shy of a crucial 'external' peak at 105.63 recorded on January 6 is not a healthy sign. I've labeled it 'ominous' in the chart, although we should probably give bulls the benefit of the doubt for at least another week while they regroup. Perhaps it will take a pullback and a running start to clear the structural hurdle? If so, the retracement had better not exceed the 102.59 low recorded on February 14, since that would turn the daily chart decisively bearish and shorten the odds of a fall to 100.55, a Hidden Pivot target that is already theoretically in play. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 5:08 p.m.): Har-har. Markets act so predictably like fun-house mirrors that we shouldn't be even slightly surprised that today's psychotic leap from lugubriousness exceeded my 105.63 benchmark by a whopping two cents. Tuppence is plenty enough for us to focus once again on the bullish case, since the rally created an undeniable, unmistakable impulse leg on the daily chart. Let's see DXY can get past the next impediment, a voodoo number at 106.42.
Since GDXJ's rally met all the conditions I'd imposed on it last week, it's time to throw more cold water on the bullish idea. The bearish case rests on the question of whether downside D=31.70, narrowly missed on the last bout of weakness, will ultimately be achieved. Regardless, a quick run-up now to x=38.80 would offer an excellent opportunity to get short 'mechanically'. The implied relapse shouldn't necessarily be expected to fulfill the downside D, however, and I doubt that it will. I remain skeptical in any event that the bounce that began from Feb 24's bottom at 32.46 will get legs. I'd feel somewhat different about this if the third of my three conditions, a push above an 'external' peak at 35.15, had not required a one-day pullback and a running start. That is timid price action, and it suggests bulls don't yet have the moxie to blitz doubters.
Unlike the E-Mini S&Ps, AAPL peaked in early February without having exceeded October's 'external' high. This means the entire rally from the January low at 124 is not impulsive. In that context, last week's surge, which ended with a 3.5% gain on Friday, should be regarded as a bear tease. If I had to pick one vehicle or the other as representative of the stock market's potential over the next 3-5 weeks, I'd go with the laggard AAPL. Since subscribers seem uninterested in trading this vehicle (except when I serve up a profitable day-trade in the chat room, as occurred a couple of weeks ago) I'll say no more for now. Do nudge me in the room, however, if the stock does something to catch your attention.
Last week's goosing occurred in a place too obvious to be taken seriously. TLT opened Thursday on a gap beneath December's double low at 99.35, shaking out the many bulls who were counting on the low for last-ditch support. Without their drag to burden the bounce that ensued, Friday saw a vertical climb that began with a short-squeeze gap well above the previous day's close. The chart shows how far shy of persuasive the rally fell nonetheless, and what TLT must do before we can safely assume the bull market begun in October 2022 has resumed.
