Free

A monthly chart stretching back nearly 20 years shows the devastation that has occurred in long-term Treasurys since they spiked to 179 as pandemic fears took hold in March 2021.  If TLT is ultimately on its way down to D=73.69, it's hard to imagine what the economic landscape would look like at that point; however, it certainly would not be in the ruinous state of deflation that I've long predicted.  More immediately, TLT signaled a textbook 'mechanical' short at x=108.84 that is all but certain to hit p=97.19 on the relapse. An easy move through this Hidden Pivot would leave it on track for a further fall to p2=85.44.

The tradeable 3796 target given here earlier can continue to serve as a minimum downside projection for the near term, but here's a somewhat different picture with a worst-case Hidden Pivot at 3373 that would be in play if February's so-far routine selloff gains momentum. For now, though, I am not enthusiastically on board with colleagues who are certain the bear market begun last January has resumed in earnest. In fact, bears have struggled in vain to hold this gas bag down, creating the miserable-excuse-for-a-C-D leg shown in the chart.  Moreover the Feb 2 high at 4208 refreshed the bullish energy of the daily chart when it exceeded an 'external' peak at 4914 recorded in December.  This increased the possibility that Mr Market will continue to grind bears to a bloody pulp no matter what happens in the real world. Indeed, anyone who sees a silver lining lining in today's headlines is experiencing psychosis. For trading purposes, here's a corrective reverse pattern that can be traded bullishly if the futures fall to the 3796 target. ______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 6:16 p.m.): Check out my instructions in the chat room this afternoon for buying put spreads in SPY. You can raise the suggested bid if the index continues to fall, or improvise a strategy using other options. Ideally, you'll want to buy the puts on intraday rallies, which for weeks have been failing with alarming but predictable regularity. One of these times, yet another fake rally is going to fail in a big way, since the wall of worry that has kept this bear market hoax going feels just about played out. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:38 p.m.):  Only one subscriber reported buying SPY puts as suggested, so I haven't established a tracking position. I've told him to hang onto a

As steep and relentless as the correction from January's peak at $41 has been, bears are going to have a tough time taking out the 31.70 Hidden Pivot support of the compelling reverse pattern shown. It can be bought speculatively with a tight stop, but be careful, since the mere exposure of this number on the Rick's Picks home page could attract the unwanted attention of the droolers, algos and trade-desk moneys we frequently compete against. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 10:22 p.m.): GDXJ has generated a fresh impulse leg on each of the last three days, but there's more work to be done if it's going to win our confidence. For starters, it failed by an inch today to achieve the 34.10 target of this pattern, a sign that buyers are tiring. If they should get second wind, they'll still have to push above structural resistance in the form of two peaks that lie, respectively, at 34.77 and 35.15 from mid-February. Your trading bias should be bullish, but don't hesitate to nail down a partial profit if the opportunity should arise.

Uranium investments topped the list of exciting takeaways from the Mines & Money conference held in Miami last week. Keynote speaker Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor, dispelled nagging doubts about atomic power's future when he noted that Greta 'How-dare-you!' Thunberg has been distancing herself from fellow activists who remain vociferously opposed to nuclear energy. She may be an insufferable scold, but there is no denying that she is also a top global influencer of environmentalists. Try Googling just 'Greta' if you need to be convinced; it is not fellow Swede Garbo whose biography pops up. Thunberg has very publicly urged Germany not to decommission its few remaining reactors this year as planned. She is hardly alone in having recognized belatedly that nuclear power is the only economically viable alternative to carbon-based fuels. With the Fukushima disaster of 2011 receding from memory, Japan and South Korea have finally seen the light, joining the U.S, U.K., Belgium, Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and others in their growing appetite for reactor-based power. Two Growth Pathways Look for the nuclear industry's growth to unfold mainly along two pathways created by 1) burgeoning demand from industrialized nations for large power stations in the 1000-gigawatt category; and 2) correspondingly robust demand from hundreds of cities and communities for small, modular N-plants that can recycle radioactive fuel pellets. John Borchoff,  managing director of a company called Deep Yellow [OTC: DYLLD] that is focused on Namibian ore, sees his firm as particularly well positioned to benefit from these trends. As demand for uranium grows, he says, buyers will seek out the biggest, most reliable producers to meet their needs. Smaller miners will get bought up by the relative handful of companies capable of delivering at least two million pounds of uranium per year. Deep Yellow is

Get AAPL right and you get the stock market right. That has been our mantra for years, and it has never failed us. Apple shares and the broad averages are unlikely to go their separate ways because so many portfolio managers regard the stock as they do their Patek Phillippe wristwatches: something to pass on to the next generation.  Even the Sage of Omaha, who reportedly moved back into AAPL in a big way recently, seems to have a jones for the company. So what is AAPL saying now?  Fix your eyes on the chart above and it’s easy to imagine the steep, 25% rally since January reversing when it hits the trendline. That's the way picture-perfect channels are supposed to work. The resistance will come in at around 167 this week, a daunting 16 points shy of early 2022's summit at 183. Suspect the Obvious However, any time a chart speaks so clearly, alarm bells should go off. For what looks like a simple picture is often more devious and complex than a three-way showdown in a spaghetti western. Were it otherwise, every chartist would retire rich at 40.  So whenever we look at a graph that seems to spell everything out for us, realize that the stock is calculating how to screw everyone.  In this case there would appear to be three distinctly different possibilities: 1) the rally fails right here or perhaps somewhat above, giving way to the ruinous implosion of a $2.5 trillion company; 2) heedless buyers impale the trendline within the next month or so , launching AAPL into the firmament; or 3) the stock wanders in the desert for 40 years, or at least until no trader cares about the channel any longer. A bullish outcome or even a lengthy period of indecision seem

The smart guys who remain badly trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices are doing their best to milk this rally for all it's worth. That means resisting the temptation to unload with bitcoin trading nearly 65% above its November lows of around 15,000 . They have not been putting much pressure on it or breaking ranks, which shows how disciplined they are. Many Robin Hoodies, Antifa thugs and Wired subscribers have doubtless been praying for a rally that would reduce their losses from catastrophic to merely horrific. However, the smart guys know that if they can waft this hoax high enough - 35,000 would be my guess -- millions of erstwhile losers will turn from prayerful and contrite to hopeful, and, ultimately, greedy. At that point they will be imagining that new all-time highs are not merely possible, but likely. That's how it works, so expect a push next week, on gossamer volume, toward the 32,354 peak recorded last May. There is a voodoo number at 28,779 where you could attempt intercepting this projectile, but don't fight the rally too aggressively. ______ UPDATE (Feb 25): Bertie effortlessly marked time last week, thumbing its nose at broad weakness in the stock market. Not only is it capable of catapulting itself to 32,354 (see above) at the first opportunity (i.e., when stocks reverse), it could swoon below 20,000 without a twinge of concern or discomfort.

Let's start the week with modest expectations, since the March contract spent the last three weeks screwing the pooch. That's not bad, actually, considering the cascade of dispiriting earnings announcements over that period. The pattern shown projects a run-up of as much as 130 points over the near term to a 4215.75 target, assuming the futures are ready to ditch the doldrums. The ABCD is a little too obvious to deliver swing highs and lows that are as reliable and precise as we're used to, but it will probably support a favorable  'mechanical'  buy if there's a pullback to the green line from above p=4135.75. ______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 12:16 p.m.): Today's plunge following a three-day weekend generated the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart in more than five months. I have drawn a bullish 'reverse' pattern nevertheless because the intraday low occurred precisely at the 'D' target of a presumptive abcd correction. The recovering bounce has been feeble so far, and that's a point in bears' favor at the moment. However, that could change overnight, and if the futures do in fact continue their bounce, nearly any reverse pattern you could draw to trigger a bull trade would be a good bet to return a profit. Alternatively, if the March contract relapses and closes for two consecutive days beneath the 4002.00 intraday low, a fall to at least p=3796.00 would become no worse than an even bet. A slight overshoot of that midpoint Hidden Pivot support could generate a quite powerful impulse leg if there are no significant upward retracements en route, lending weight to speculation that papa bear has returned with a vengeance.

Gold futures continued to head lower as anticipated, presumably bound for the 1774.50 'D' target of the by now familiar  pattern shown.  The downtrend bounced precisely from a Hidden Pivot level (p2=1824.70 ), just as it did the previous week when p=1874.90 caught an encouraging bounce. I won't raise your hopes this time, however, since that would only invest gold with more contrarian joo-joo than it already has. (Side note: Bull markets will always be filled with discouragements big and small. It is only in retrospect that they will seem to have been fun.) We'll find a way to bottom-fish if and when the target is reached, but this might take some clever footwork, since the pattern, even though a less-obvious 'reversal', is not likely to be under-observed.

Uh-oh. Looks like the groundhog saw his shadow. Friday's breach of the 'D' Hidden Pivot support at 33.96 was bearish, although not necessarily fatal. It also stopped out a key low at 33.89 from December, generating an impulse leg of daily-chart degree and the presumption of a rally that is merely corrective.  The outlook would brighten somewhat if GDXJ  can achieve 36.00, exceeding a mildly challenging peak from last week. Since the small dip beneath December's low would have stopped out many bulls and lightened the profit-taking load on the rebound, we should hope its feistiness continues for at least another day or two. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 3:55 p.m.): A chat room denizen said he thought GDXJ might be bottoming right here, but I doubt it. My response to him was as follows: "Wishful thinking, perhaps, in that GDXJ pattern, S_____.  Here's a more realistic pattern that has bearishly breached a perfectly good D support: https://bit.ly/3Es5HB2  Another minor 'D' at 33.16 is holding so far (A=37.71 on 2/7), but if it gives way the next stop on the southbound local would be p2=31.94 (60-min, A=40.27 on 2/2; B=34.89 on 2/24)."