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GDXJ has shredded its way past all lesser targets, leaving just one more, major, Hidden Pivot resistance at 93.89 that comes from the weekly chart and beckons a test. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the midpoint resistance at 78.90, the target is all but certain to be reached. It is nearly as likely to produce a precise reaction, meaning you should consider covered writes if you hold a long-term position.  I advised doing so at a lesser target not far below, but there was relatively little resistance. This time it is likely to be different, but if GDXJ melts through the resistance anyway, I'll need to rummage through my bag of technical tricks to come up with a new target, since the one at 93.89 is the highest I can produce with conventional tools. In most cases, this entails extrapolating an 'extension' target from the intraday charts. This tactic will yield Hidden Pivots that should be expected to show shortable stopping power, but it is not a reliable means for predicting a major top. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 2:14 p.m.): Bulls vaporized the 93.89 target on first contact, ensuring that the nearly vertical rally will continue to at least 104.85. This Hidden Pivot target does NOT come from the lesser charts, which reveal nothing of interest at the moment, but from weekly bars. The pattern is unorthodox, but our rule is that the midpoint Hidden Pivot of all patterns, however odd, will unfailingly yield an accurate assessment of trend strength. Since p=84.38 got impaled the first time it was touched, that means the move must reach D, even if this 'hidden' resistance does not mark the ultimate top. Here's the chart.

Bitcoin's bounce two weeks ago from within a hair of a correction target at 107,064 has gotten legs and now promises more upside over the near term to as high as 119,160. Bulls have all but clinched a move to at least 116,183, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot resistance (p2) of the pattern shown. However, a follow-through to D=119,160 is not a done deal yet and would be predicated on a decisive penetration of 116,183 on first contact. Meanwhile, a relapse to 110,272 (x, the green line) can be bought with a 107,249 stop-loss. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:01 p.m. EDT): Bulls have popped this gas-bag to 116,365 this morning. That's 0.15 percent higher than my minimum target, but not quite enough to guarantee that D=119,160 will be achieved. I expect this to happen, but the yellow flag is out anyway just to be extra cautious. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): No change, although I'll suggest shorting the 119,160 target with tight risk-control., since I strongly doubt BTC will take it out without a see-saw battle. If it does, it would be signaling more upside to at least 126,622, or 132,996 if any higher.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 22):  Bitcoin's meaningless histrionics have not altered my rally target, although I will:  with a small upward adjustment to 119,740. Meanwhile, the current correction looks bound for at least 110,435, but a breach of that Hidden Pivot support could send bulls down to as low as 107,894 in search of traction. ________ UPDATE Oct 2, 2:41 a.m.): The little hoax rallied to within 0.2% of my target, close enough for us to consider it precisely fulfilled. Anyone care to know exactly where it is going next? I saw a ZeroHedge article about a supposed double-top in this vehicle, but I'm guessing it was written by a Starbucks

Bloomberg and other news sources that despise Trump and wish him ill have been asking with increasing fervor whether a recession is taking hold in the U.S.  Of course it is, as any middle-class American could have told you. But in this chart, we have a corroborating detail: long-term rates are headed lower, presumably because of a weakening economy. The two stalls since early July at the red line had seemed to imply that T-Bond futures were trapped in a bearish pattern that might at best produce sideways movement for the foreseeable future. However, this week's powerful blast through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 87.88 suggests that T-bond prices will continue to rise at least until D=92.45 is reached. A corresponding drop in long-term rates would yield 4.49%, down significantly from the current 4.68%.  This is a high-confidence call, although there is a possibility the decline in rates will stall or reverse at 4.66%, just a hair below.

Microsoft could go either way, but we should be able to gauge its mood by paying close attention to the two levels shown in the chart. If the stock moves higher, it would trigger a minor buy signal at 506.6, which could be a good opportunity for a ride to 519.75, or even to 547.12 if the trend catches fire. Alternatively, a decisive breach of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 493.67 would signal an imminent fall to at least 462.78, or possibly even 431.89 if any lower.  ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:20 p.m. EDT): The stock finally got off the fence today with a cattle-prod assist from its clever handlers.  It popped above 506.06, tripping a buy signal to at least 519.75, but possibly as high as 547.12. This is equivalent to Punxsutawney Phil failing to see his shadow, since it will extend Springtime on Wall Street (cue up the Mel Brooks number) for yet another few weeks, or perhaps months. Please note, however, that the rally would fall a tad shy of the old high.  For those of you who are keeping track, DaBoyz effortlessly added about $88.6 billion of fraudulent 'wealth effect' to the global ledger with this morning's gap-up, short-squeeze opening.

There was plenty of lunatic energy at day's end, implying p2=6556 will be easily achieved (see inset chart). I stop short of rating D=6620.25 a done deal, however, and an even more important Hidden Pivot target at 6749.00 is still no better than a 50% bet to be achieved. It's not that I'm turning more bearish, just extremely cautious. The only thing the stock market has going for it is that the economy is weakening, providing an excuse for the Fed to ease. This is a pathetic way to run an economy, but it could conceivably drag out the bull market for long enough to enable stocks to benefit from something even more pathetic -- i.e., Santa Claus. Wall Street surely believes in him, even if kids no longer do. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 4:45 p.m. EDT): Check the Trading Room for my post on Wednesday concerning immediate prospects for the December contract. 

I've set a bullish tripwire at 510.50, somewhat above current levels, to tell us whether MSFT is about to embark on a major leg up. If so, the stock market would likely follow, since Microsoft remains a key bellwether. This does not negate a 493.67 correction target where I'd intended to bottom-fish aggressively. But I'm not married to either scenario and would prefer to simply let the stock tell us how it's feeling rather than pretend we have a crystal ball. If MSFT climbs toward new highs, don't expect the ascent to be smooth. That's because the slimeballs who manipulate the stock trapped too many bulls (and short-covering bears) with July 31's lunatic leap to 555.

It was nearly three years ago that TLT tripped a sell signal tied to a Hidden Pivot target at 80.84.  This ETF proxy for T-Bonds was trading just above 102 at the time, and few could have imagined then that such a grim outlook was justified. The thumbnail chart shows an even darker possibility based on a long-term bottom at 74.38. But the graph also allows for a possible turn from p2=81.20, somewhat above our longstanding target at 80.84. This is what I believe will occur, since a further fall to 74.38, implying correspondingly higher long-term rates, would choke off expansionary pressures long before TLT could plunge to such depths. For now, though, you can use 81.20 as a minimum downside objective.

I am on holiday for a short while, far from Florida's disabling seasonal heat and enjoying what so far has been the coolest, foggiest summer anyone who lives in San Francisco can remember. This is a busman's holiday, since I am updating the actionable 'touts' on this page 24/7 and have been fully engaged in the chat room as always, providing timely ideas whenever unusual opportunities arise and answering all questions related to trading. I am also continuing to put out actionable guidance at GoldenMeadow.eu. However, in this space, instead of the usual weekly commentary and graphics, I am presenting a changing selection of paintings by Geoffrey Leckie, my college roommate during our third year at the University of Virginia. His canvases are beautiful and extraordinary (above: Stacking Hay, a scene from Connemara, Ireland), and they can speak for themselves. If you want to know more about the artist, click here. Expect 'Something Big' Concerning the stock market, I've come to expect unusual craziness every time I take an extended holiday. Although my hunch until recently was that the nuttiness would take the form of a melt-up, last week's weakness, especially in Bitcoin, has caused me to reconsider. Although Trump's accomplishments have driven the bull market to new heights, the feel-good energy they created may be spent. For that reason, I have lowered the odds of a thousand-point rally in the S&Ps to 50-50. Correspondingly, I will be more cautious at these heights, since the bear market that's coming will be at least as destructive to the economy as the 1929 Crash.

My outlook is still bullish, with a 593.73 target in play that was introduced here last week. This chart offers a different view, however -- one that suggests the stock would become an opportune buy when the correction comes down to p=493.67, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern I've cloaked for proprietary reasons.  You should use a trigger interval taken from the hourly to initiate the trade, but it cannot be calculated accurately until the stock is close to p. As of now, it looks like $2.08 TI should do the trick, but a more timely calculation could help to reduce that number. As always, a decisive breach of the midpoint support would shorten the odds of more slippage to the 'd' target -- in this case 431.89.