As forecast, AAPL has plunged into the mid-$130s, The prediction was unrelated to Hidden Pivot targets, but rather to the likelihood that there will be many visually compelling stops along the way down to $50 or lower. That's where I see the stock headed, an outlook that I started drum-rolling months ago when the company bragged about how well sales were holding up. One of iPhone's key markets, Europe, was already in the throes of a slowdown that threatens to be far worse than a garden-variety recession. At the same time, China was starting to slip into an abyss of its own, with the U.S. economy presumably not far behind. Under the circumstances, the shares of Apple, whose revenues come mainly from sales of the relatively pricey iPhone, have nowhere to go but down. Considering the company's size, it is arguably the most vulnerable consumer goods company in the world with recession bearing down on us. From a technical standpoint, I expect the stock to bounce from one of my 'voodoo numbers' before falling to test last June's $129 low. I'll say nothing more about this, however, unless there is very strong interest in the chat room. Let me remind you nevertheless: As AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. Get the stock exactly right and you will get the bear market exactly right. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:43 p.m.): Bears have been struggling to crush this once-might stock, which is still capable of intimidating with doomed rallies. A test of mid-June's low at 129.04 seems so obvious that I have not prepared a chart with Hidden Pivot levels to target the downtrend. Another reason is that the little p.o.s. has a habit of leaving sausage 'B' lows to terrorize and bamboozle erstwhile bottom-fishers. Such lows diminish the accuracy and
The rally begun nearly two weeks ago from 91.85 is threatening to reverse, cutting short the respite that investors in Treasury Bonds may have felt. It's too early for them to run up a white flag, but I've reproduced a longer-term chart that shows how precarious their position is. A further fall to 86.48 would hardly be a shocker, especially in the light of an outstanding target of mine at 4.64% for the 30-year. I estimate that the two targets would be roughly in synch. Whatever the case, a relapse would inflict even more punishment on all who owe dollars. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:10 p.m.): The biggest one-day move that we've seen in a long while surpassed an 'internal' peak at 97.90 on the daily chart, but it will have to get past an 'external' high at 100.90 to turn the chart bullishly impulsive and suggest the bear market has ended. If this happens with no significant retracements, it would be even more bullish.
Friday's blitzkrieg rally capped a whole month of gingerly stair-stepping. Would you believe that all of it did not push the futures past a single 'external' peak on the daily chart, let alone generate an impulse leg? The good news is that it would require a further push of just 82 cents to create a quite promising one. The chart (see inset) clarifies this with a peak I've circled at 21.74 that was recorded at the end of June. It may not look like much, but it is as significant technically as most of the more obvious peaks on the chart. I've set an alert there, and bulls should take heart if it gets triggered this week (the earlier the better). _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:33 p.m.): The futures topped almost exactly at the 21.90 target I posted in the chat room at 8:44 a.m., so they are due for a rest. However, the subsequent pullback has been shallow so far, implying bulls are still revved up. They will have their work cut out for them trying to make headway over the next few days, though, since the uptrend has entered a thick band of supply deposited last spring between 21.72 and 22.76 (corrected) . We'll be better able to judge the staying power of the rally once we've seen how it fares 'in the zone'.
Bears have been trying to kick this proxy for small miners into a deep hole with a 22.89 bottom, but three weeks of pounding on the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 27.62 has failed to bring success. This is mildly bullish and encouraging, but we should set a reliable benchmark to tell us if buyers are finally getting serious. A tick above the August 10 peak at 35.26 would diminish the possibility of a false signal, but we don't want to be so demanding that we miss a significant part of the move before diving in Accordingly, I'll suggest setting using 32.76, just above a minor 'external' peak recorded on August 25. Although we can trade this ETF without a strong bias in the meantime, we should be especially alert to the possibility of a head-fake, something bullion has been doing vexatiously for...years. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 4:42 p.m.): Today's powerful rally exceeded some daunting peaks, including an 'external' at 32.75 recorded back in late August. This is strong evidence the move begun from the 25.80 low on September 6 is not just a tease. If that's the case, buyers should have little trouble punching through the 34.18 'D' resistance of this pattern. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:40 p.m.): Bulls did all we'd asked of them with brio, impaling the resistance noted above en route to a 34.75 high. Now, if they can extend the rally without a pullback to exceed the August 10 peak at 35.25, that would significantly increase the likelihood of a run-up to tghe psychologically important $40 level.
Economics, the “dismal science,” has taken quite a beating in the current election cycle. Last week, Joy Reid, MSNBC’s rising-star bimbo, tried to convince viewers that the word “inflation” has no meaning outside the academy and the newsroom. “Most people who would never use that word in their lives are using it now because they’ve been taught it [by the Republicans.]" Oh, really? Perhaps she has a more accurate word to describe the cause of soaring prices for nearly everything since Biden ostensibly took charge? A network headline the same day evinced further confusion on the subject: White House Disputes Recession Fears. Although it’s Biden’s prerogative to try to control the narrative, he risks alienating even Democrats with such outrageous spin when the plain truth is staring us in the face. For the first time in more than a decade, middle-class Americans have been tightening their belts and cutting back on essentials, and 81% of them say they are either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the economy. Despite this, the recession debate, such as it is, has been going on for quite some time and continues to this day. You could even argue that Biden appears to be winning on points. Eggheads, pundits and other credentialed dissemblers recruited by the mainstream news media to take a bullet for the team have been dependable recession deniers. And even Chase president Jamie Dimon, who should know better, speaks of recession as a “possibility” in 2023. All of them should harken to the observations of Matt Barnes, a Rick’s Picks subscriber who noticed the U.S. economy slipping into recession early in the second quarter. He would know, since he’s in the shipping-pallet business, as good a mine canary as you could have for discerning a drop-off in economic activity. A Silent Crash
A powerful short squeeze capped the week, daring badly bloodied bears to stand their ground. The rally narrowly exceeded the 3917 target I'd drum-rolled five days earlier, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some Rick's Picks subscribers evidently doubled down at the close, betting that the best time to get short is when conditions seem most dangerous. Friday's close easily passed that test when the futures came to rest a single point shy of an important external peak at 3925.25 recorded September 21 on the way down. If DaBoyz can levitate this gas-bag above that structural resistance Sunday night or Monday, it would refresh the impulsive energy of the hourly chart and put the December contract on track for a finishing stroke to the 4110.75 target of this pattern. You can short there with a tight stop-loss (and at p2=3959.75), but your trading bias should be aggressively bullish otherwise. ______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:43 p.m.): This afternoon's wild swings offered yet another glimpse of the two forces that animate Wall Street: fear and greed. In the context of the larger pattern shown here, the histrionics amounted to just a hiccup, albeit one that would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy if the futures plummet to x=3653.00, the green line. The $30k of entry risk this implies demands risk-averse tactics for initiating the trade, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _____ UPDATE (Nov 3, 8:37 p.m.): Mr Market was providing few clues concerning whether the futures were about to take out today's low at 3704, presumably bound for the 3653 target flagged above. A breakdown would put them on course for an even lower target at 3631.50 that is shown in this chart. Note also that before ES weakened at the end of the regular
Gold's not-so-heroic struggle over the last month to hold above the 1622.90 target of the pattern shown looks doomed. In the meantime, as we've learned over and over, we shouldn't get too excited when the futures pop for a $30-$40 gain on a given day, since the move is practically guaranteed to be just a tease. So that we don't get lulled into missing a bullish turn, however unexpected, I'll set a screen alert at 1691.40, just above an external peak of middling importance recorded on October 11.
Would a rally like the hypothetical one shown in the chart make you more hopeful? Good. Then let's set an alert at 21.31 to tell us when it is appropriate to turn optimistic, if not exuberant. In the meantime, Silver can be traded bullishly or bearishly as warranted, since there is still plenty of money to be made if it merely trades sideways. My latest gold tout is more downbeat than that, however, so you should be prepared to see Silver dragged lower.
This T-Bond proxy has taken an encouraging bounce off last Monday's 91.85 low, but the prospect of the rally getting legs is still shaky. It is concerning that last week's high at 97.90 failed by 49 cents to surpass the lowest of a series of external peaks recorded in recent weeks (see inset). If TLT gets second wind in the days ahead, it will need to use its running start to clear all of the peaks to look impressive.
The long-term chart shows why the month of weakness we've seen so far may not be enough to correct the moon shot begun in mid-2021. Just a little more selling will bring the Dollar Index down to a Hidden Pivot target at 109.22 that has served as a minimum downside objective for the last two months. However, the downtrend would need to surpass the 'external' low at 107.68 to turn the weekly chart bearishly impulsive. For now, let's see how the 'hidden' support at 109.22 handles whatever pounding occurs there if the dollar relapses. _____ UPDATE (Nov 8, 11:10 a.m.): Price action over the last two days has provided a new ABCD pattern with a 108.75 target. I expect DXY to get there, and also to reverse off a low within a few ticks. Here's the chart. _______UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:51 p.m.): Following a steep dive on the opening bar, DXY got traction at 108.75, but this 'hidden' support' failed and it plunged anew to 107.71. This suggests more weakness ahead, but a push above 109.09 to end the week would earn dollar bulls a reprieve.
