Current Touts

The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls.

A 15% rally to the 111.59 target shown is likely. I've used a reverse pattern (rABC) taken from the monthly chart to project the extent of the move, which should unfold over the remaining months of 2025 and perhaps into early 2026. The point 'a low is an acceptable choice because this vehicle, a proxy for mining exploration companies, was introduced by Van Eck at the end of 2009. Notice that the first time buyers encountered the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=64.23) along the c-d- leg, they stalled almost precisely there before correcting for a little more than two years. The eventual penetration of p, although hardly explosive, was decisive enough to make a follow-through to 'd' a good bet.

Bulls didn't exactly impale the 3668.10 midpoint pivot, but they have surpassed it with such graceful ease that there should be little doubt that the 4128.10 target shown in the chart will be achieved. A punitive pullback to the green line (x=3428.00), however unlikely, would enable a superb bottom-fishing opportunity, but it's possible another will develop at the red line after the futures have touched the secondary Hidden Pivot at 3898.10.  Above 4128 sits just one more target that can be extrapolated from the long-term chart:  5020.20.  The significance of this number will grow if we see a stall at 4071.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance to which it is related.

The thieves who manipulate this behemoth for a living partied hard in the final moments of Friday's session, goosing MSFT $7 just ahead of the bell. Usually it is in the opening minutes of the day that we see them diligently at work, stealing hubcaps in full view of SEC regulators. Wall Street loves these guys, since they have been responsible for creating untold trillions of dollars' worth of vaporous 'wealth' since the bull market began in 2009. Friday's criminally inspired spike was relatively modest, worth approximately $7 billion to portfolios that hold Microsoft shares. The irony is that the sleazeballs who purport to control this stock, among others, are themselves the unwitting slaves of mysterious technical forces they will never completely understand. The chart shows exactly how this works, with Hidden Pivot levels that can be used to gain a profitable edge over the riff-raff and algos. They already enabled us to get long just a hair off the September 5 low at 492.37.  More recently, the stall at 519.75, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, could have been shorted on Friday, but for the fact that it occurred on a vicious upthrust with just a few minutes remaining in the session. But there are still several potential trades that can be milked from the pattern, including a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line, and two potential shorts in places that Rick's Picks subscribers will recognize. Trading should be fun -- and what could be more fun than going up against machines incapable of distinguishing a chickpea from a garbanzo.  (The difference, says comedian Will Durst, is that a guy would never pay $200 to have a garbanzo sit on his chest.) ________ UPDATE (Sep 27): If you followed my guidance (see above), you should be long

The Endless Bull Market still has a ways to go, although a key component of it, the E-Mini S&P 500, is coming up on an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 6803.75 that lies just 1.2% above. Trump's ability to transform an economy fatally swollen with debt into a beautiful vista is vastly overrated, as is the promise of AI, and that's why we should be on our guard for the onset of a bear market that is long overdue. Most immediately, that means paying close attention to price action at 6740.25, the midpoint between D and p2=6676.56. Trends within patterns as obvious as the one shown often fall short of expectations, and the midpoint between levels is where to expect such failures to occur. We'll treat this one as we would a conventional midpoint (p) Hidden Pivot, meaning the futures would become a strong bet to achieve 'D' if they blow past 6740.25. The D target is shortable but bound to get front-run because of the pattern's obviousness, so don't look for a precise turn from within a point or less of where we should want it to occur. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:07 p.m. EDT): Just a slight downward adjustment: I now see the futures achieving a minimum 6801.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 1:13 p.m. EDT): The futures have come down unusually hard after stalling precisely at the 6758.50 secondary pivot associated with the 6801 target identified above. They triggered a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal at 6661.50 this morning, but a subsequent low flirted with the 6612.75 stop-loss, casting the bullish outlook into doubt. On the other hand, all previous bets that the bull market is at an end have lost, so we are obliged to give the bull the benefit of the doubt for now. We'll stay close to

This ETF proxy for the Long Bond has generated its first impulse leg since August with a pop above two prior peaks on the weekly chart. The move is not nearly as strong, and it is no reason to break out the bubbly, but it implies the rally cycle begun from 83.30 in May will achieve a minimum 92.91.  That is an important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a big-picture rally target at 102.52. The target comes from a pattern on the weekly chart begun from 82.42 in October 2023. As always, a decisive penetration of 'p' on first contact would shorten the odds of a continuation to as high as 'D' , but to least p2 (97.82 in this case). ________ UPDATE (Sep 25): The correction should come down to at least 88.08 before TLT turns around, but if it doesn't, I'll need to ratchet down my mild bullishness a smidgen.

The riff-raff were out in force last week, frontrunning the 3751.30 target of the too-obvious pattern shown in the chart. Coy as ever, the futures turned lower from a peak that fell 7 points shy of the target, a well-defined Hidden Pivot.  Looking ahead, there are three possibilities to consider: 1) the gallimaufry gets sucked in by a marginal feint above the high; 2) the futures surpass the peak and keep on going; or 3) a significant correction paves the way for a new burst of exuberance. I rate #3 the most likely, although that wouldn't preclude a head-fake first to a marginal new high.  The healthiest and most bullish scenario I could imagine would begin with a pullback to 3520.70, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that could be bottom-fished aggressively with a tight stop. That number is based on the record 3714.00 high remaining intact. However, it would need to be adjusted by the incremental amount of any new top that occurs in the week(s) ahead. If a correction is starting that trounces the 3520.70 support, expect it to continue down to at least 3424.10, or to 3327.40 if any lower. These numbers would also be subject to a 1:1 revision if the futures take out last week's high. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 3:15 p.m. EDT):  It didn’t take long for gold bulls to show their hand. Today’s hyperdrive rally has set the December Comex contract on a path to at least 4128.10, a Hidden Pivot that lies 345 points, or 9%, above current levels. There is no room for debate or doubt, as far as I’m concerned. The move must be traded with small-pattern ‘triggers’ to limit risk, since powerful trends attract crowds that cannot but beat their own brains in and cause the rally to become diabolically evasive

I am unfurling the yellow flag in Silver, since the December contract nearly maxed out bullish targets on the monthly with last week's rally to 43.435. That slightly exceeded a major Hidden Pivot target at 43.282 that I've since adjusted upward by a penny.  Notice that there is still an unused 'A' low at 19.340 from September 2022 that would yield a somewhat higher target at 45.944. Although it could eventually come into play, I doubt this would happen before the futures have corrected off the 43.292 target associated with the higher, one-off 'A' I've used. Don't go all-in if buyers start the week with a pop above last week's high. That's because there is a minor target at 43.585, or perhaps 43.770, that could repel the bullish herd. Either of these 'conventional' Hidden Pivots is shortable, provided you know how to set up a camouflage trigger that would limit entry risk to literal pocket change. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 4:14 p.m. EDT):  The futures have blown past every minor Hidden Pivot resistance on the intraday charts today, implying they are bound for a minimum 45.944, the target flagged above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 11:42 a.m. EDT): Use the 48.635 target shown here as a minimum upside objective. December Silver has exceeded all major targets, so we are extending its immediate upside potential with the Hidden Pivot target of a smaller pattern, the only one we've got to work with at the moment. 

Switching from the November contract to the December yields a somewhat higher target at 3751.20. Like the earlier target at 3719.70, this one looks likely to be reached. However, the odds of an overshoot have improved by a tad. That's because the futures spent a whole week consolidating just beneath the 'D' target, which would be a lot of work just to produce a marginal pop to a new high a mere $36 above the previous one. Regardless, we'll be ready to get short there cautiously, since the pattern is compelling, even if too obvious to predict a top precisely. UPDATE  (Sep 18, 12:08 a.m. EDT): Fed “news” caused the futures to head-fake to 3744.00, slightly above yesterday’s all-time high. Having frightened themselves with this breakout, traders then retreated $64 to leave our short offer unfilled. The target remains valid, although it is no longer a good bet for us.