Current Touts

I doubt that Silver can turn up meaningfully without first visiting the 53.86 secondary Hidden Pivot of the conventional pattern shown. We'll make it our minimum downside objective, but let's keep an open mind about the potential of this bounce. The first resistance comes in at 60.723, but an easy move through it would imply more upside is likely to as high as 65.750 over the near term. (Note: On September Silver's chart, p2 and D lie respectively at 54.186 and 39.730. And here's a tout I mistakenly prepared for the inconsequential August contract:  It ended the week tap-dancing on a crucial support at 68.75. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting to as low as 59.35.  The pattern looked like a bearish head-and-shoulders formation a week ago, but last week's 19% slide turned the immediate picture even more bearish. Now, if the futures close below the red line for two consecutive days, it will significantly shorten the odds of a further slide to at least p2=64.05, or even to 59.35.)

Sellers pummeled GDXJ down to the 95.07 secondary pivot for the second time in two weeks, but I wouldn't get my hopes too high that it will survive another test. Even so, this proxy for gold exploration companies looks primed to continue up to at least 107.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a small pattern begun from 94.33 on June 10, or even to 118.93 if the bounce gets legs. But if and when it sputters out, the next leg down could reach 81.94, the worst-case target for the pattern shown.

The textbook-perfect pattern shown promises to deliver at least a temporary low at 4.35%, the D target shown. That would represent a 7% decrease in yields on the Ten-Year Note since they peaked at 4.69% on June 19. A weak bounce would open the door to even lower rates, with mid-April's 4.22% serving as a benchmark and potential support.

The futures spent the last two sessions head-butting a modest midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 7582. You might think the failure to break through was a sign of weakness, but the opposite is true. Considering that no one but Trump and Vance is impressed with the cease-fire plan, and that the Fed is waxing hawkish, the lackluster performance of the S&P must be viewed as a volcano gathering subterranean force. The index hardly pulled back at all, and so we should expect it to launch anew on Monday, assuming Wall Street is not too hungover from Juneteenth craziness. Look for the E-Minis to ascend to D=7692.00, a sufficiently 'D' target to show tradeable stopping power. A dip first to the green line from above Thursday's highs, however unlikely, would trigger a tempting 'mechanical' buy, so be ready if you know how to handle it with a small-pattern (i.e., 'camo') trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:27): Cancel the trade (or exit it now for a nice profit if you got long at the green line). Mr Market is doing his utmost to screw with our heads, first by dropping ES to within a single point of the green line at 1:00 a.m. before popping off a 71-point rally.  He then plunged ES to the green line EXACTLY before embarking on the current, so-far 23-point, rally.  Since no subscriber mentioned any of this in the chat room, I will assume everyone either slept through it or ignored the opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 12:21 p.m.): It's too early to say the bear market has finally begun, especially since the worst case I can offer for the moment is the 7266.00 target of this pattern. The futures are all but certain to get there, but sellers will have to demolish the Hidden Pivot support

An unorthodox target I'd drawn near 380 failed to contain the selling, so I've switched to a conventional pattern that projects significantly lower, to 339.27.  My expectations are bullish for the market as a whole when stocks start to trade on Sunday, and I don't expect MSFT to go its own way. However, the stock's decisive breach of the midpoint support (p=402.80) suggests it is likely to eventually reach the target. The implication is that MSFT and the broad average could head higher over the next few days, but the rally won't get very far. We can adjust our expectations as more evidence becomes available.

Crude bounced with enough vigor at week's end to suggest that this bear rally will reach a minimum 79.90, a Hidden Pivot target that lies $3.40 above Friday's settlement price.  If the futures fall first to 74.60 without going higher than 77.34 (or so), they will trigger an attractive 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 72.92.  I have not provided an illustration because the technical details are proprietary, but the tactic is covered explicitly in the free course I've made available to subscribers.

Brace for more disappointment in the days and weeks ahead, since the futures give every indication that they'll continue falling to at least 3795.20, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Gold will have given up a third of its peak value if that happens, a middling bear market. A rally in the meantime to as high as the green line (x=4664) would be widely interpreted as bullish, but Hidden Pivot analysis suggests it would actually set up an opportune short sale. If you're eager for signs of a durable upturn, look for a rally that exceeds two prior peaks on the daily chart without a B-C correction. Another indicator would be corrective patterns, including those in minor-degree charts, that do not reach their D targets but instead reverse from the midpoint of Hidden Pivots. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:11 a.m.): If you are looking for a reliable way to determine when this plummeting cinder block may be turning higher for good, use TI=197.80 (a=4162 on 3/23). It already flashed one false signal with a rally that failed to reach then-p (4441.80), but I am betting that Mr Market cannot repeat this nasty trick.  More immediately, if GCQ 26 can't get traction at p2=3967.90, it will continue lower to D=3822.7o (daily chart, A=4627 on 5/29)

Friday's rally mirrored gold's, meaning you shouldn't get your hopes too high. The pattern suggests that once the bounce ends and silver resumes its downward course, it could eventually go as low as 54.735. That's 20% below these levels, meaning a whole 'nother bear market could unfold before Ag finds a bottom. If that sounds overly bearish, we can allow for the possibility that bulls have turned things around if the July contract surpasses the 77.355 peak recorded on June 2.  For current purposes, however, we'll plan on trading with a bullish bias if and when the futures push above last week's 68.800 peak. That would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, brightening the short-term outlook. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21): As expected, a weak rally died before the futures could surpass even a single Hidden Pivot level on the daily chart. By week's end, they appeared on track again for a fall to the 54.735 target shown. That would equate to a 53% drop since spot quotes peaked in late January around 123. _______ UPDATE Jun 24, 8:53 a.m.): On July Silver's daily chart going back to February, there are more downtrending ABC patterns driving it lower than I can parse -- and zero ABC uptrends on any chart of any degree. Worst-case technically is 39.305 (!), but that is much lower than I can imagine, given the strong industrial demand for silver in the Western world. My best case would be a bounce from here (i.e., 58.409), the p2 pivot of A=79.250 on 5/26); or, far more likely, from either of two more or less coincident supports at D=53.995 or p2=53.865 (A=.123.45 on Jan 29).

I've lowered the target somewhat to 81.94 by switching from the daily chart to the hourly. The picture is just as dismal, however, and although GDXJ has shown more pluck than bullion futures, it is not immune to gravity. Since we should always allow for another possibility, let's stipulate that a rally exceeding the 120.05 peak recorded on May 29 would signal a bull resurgence. Given GDXJ's strength relative to gold itself, it would be unsurprising for it to lead the way.