Current Touts

TLT continues to grind higher, perhaps to deny skeptics the inspiration they need to climb aboard early in this bull market.  It is still in its adolescence, too early to predict which tectonic financial event(s) it is signaling. The trend flouts Trump's persistent efforts to cheapen the dollar, if not to say trash it.  This is a paradox that I've explained here before, to wit: the president's bold leadership has been attracting hordes of T-Bond buyers from around the world, providing an offset to the fiscal and credit excesses Trump believes will lift the U.S. economy.  Grotesquely inflated asset prices belie the fact that, for most Americans, the economy has slipped into a deep, intractable recession.  For the lucky winners, a debt deflation and bear market in stocks awaits those whose net worth has soared mainly due to Fed easing. Regarding TLT, don't pass up an opportunity to buy it 'mechanically' on a pullback to the green line (x=89.85), stop 88.45. ______ UPDATE (Nov 7): A nasty, six-day selloff triggered the 'mechanical' buy I'd suggested at 89.85. The futures continued to fall but didn't stop out the position, since the downtrend went no further than 88.88. Maintain the 88.45 stop-loss for now and hope for a push above 90.66, since that's what it would take to put bulls back in charge. A decline that touches the stop would be the most bearish event we've seen in this vehicle since last April.

Even with its unusually elongated A-B leg, the pattern shown remains the best source of tradable information we have for the runaway bull market. Price action at p suggests the 7057.50 target is likely to be reached, but until it is decisively breached, we won't concern ourselves with a still higher target at 7531.25 that was identified here earlier. As you can see, the pattern also leaves room for a few scary corrections along the way. The current one will need to come down to the red line (p=6798.88), however, before I suggest buying there 'mechanically'. We usually do these trades on pullbacks to the green line, but in this case, given the steepness of the uptrend, that opportunity may not materialize. The 'textbook' stop-loss for this trade would be at 6712.50, but in practice, we would use a 'camo' trigger to pare down theoretical entry risk by at least 90%. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3, 2:35 p.m.): Today's refreshing plunge has brought greater clarity to the immediate outlook. You can expect the futures to fall to a tradable low at 6681.75. If they rally first to 6885.7, short the crap out of them, stop 6954.00. The latter trade should be done only with a 'camo' trigger that cuts theoretical entry risk to no more than $400 per contract, and only if you've caught a profitable piece of the ride up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 2025): DaBoyz used every sleazy trick in the book to spike ES (see my explanation in the chat room), but they couldn't even goose it to the red line (p=6865.63) before buyers turned tail at day's end. Use the pattern shown, ugly but serviceable, to determine whether They will eventually succeed. A decisive thrust past 'p', especially followed by a close above it, will imply that dangerous

The chart shows two bullish targets that are likely to be reached in the weeks and months ahead. Most immediately, there is the 7057.50 target of the smaller pattern. A more important Hidden Pivot sits well above it at 7351.25.  It is particularly important because it would max out bullish patterns on the weekly chart. Both are likely to be achieved because buyers showed little struggle overcoming the respective midpoint Hidden Pivots. Most immediately, if the December contract pulls back from between the red line (p=6798.88) and the pink one (p2=6928.19), a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (x=6669.50) would enjoy excellent odds of success. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 4:23 p.m. EDT): Please check out my latest post in the chat room for new, potentially tradable, details. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:59 a.m.): See my 5:54 a.m. update in the chatroom for the latest outlook. 

We settled on MSFT, the second most valuable company in the world, as the mine canary that would signal the end of the bull market. So far, it is saying we should stick with the uptrend, albeit with one foot on the fire escape. The chart shows a logical path to the 547.12 rally target identified here earlier. It is not a done deal, since buyers did not exactly trash the midpoint resistance (p=519.75) on first contact, nor have they broken free of its gravitational pull.  Even so, there is almost no chance that p2=533.43 will not be achieved.  Any pullback to the green line (x=506.06) in the meantime should be regarded as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 2:59 p.m. EDT): Microsoft's decision to dive into fee-based AI has tacked on yet more hundreds of billions of gaseous 'wealth-effect' value to its shares.  Today's volumeless stab through the green line (x=543.00) has shortened the odds of a further run-up to p=592.94. I have my doubts the stock will achieve D=692.83, so we should be ready to short the bejeezus out of it at p, provided we've made plenty of dough on the way up.  Here's the chart.  

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop

The chart replicates the bullish pattern shown this week for gold (see above), although silver has yet to deliver any winning trades. Near-misses were another story, however, since the pattern would have yielded a theoretical $12,540 gain on a single contract if Thursday's 49.225 high had been just a slightly higher 49.328. The second of the two trades that would have resulted would have been a 'long' at the green line (x-48.074) that would have shown a small profit at the bell on Friday. (For details, check out my 21:21 post in the chat room Thursday night.)  Looking just ahead, I expect gold to pull silver higher when the week begins. That implies a push past p=49.328, followed by a run-up to at least p2=50.581, or to d=51.835 if any higher._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 1:24 p.m.): This morning's plunge through the red line (p=46.650) means the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=44.145.  This is even though the pattern is a conventional one that every trader on Earth is aware of. A bounce up to the green line (x=47.903)  should be shorted 'mechanically' with a small-pattern 'camo' trigger.

GDXJ ended the week just shy of triggering a theoretical sell signal that could extend the so-far 18% drop from last week's record 112.45. If it slips beneath the green line to start the week, look for more weakness down to at least p=90.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. The ETF will be ripe for bottom-fishing down there, presumably with a reverse-pattern trigger to reduce risk. A decisive breach of p, especially on first contact, would imply that more slippage to p2=86.38, at least, is likely. Worst case over the next 2-3 days would be 82.59, the pattern's D target.

Bitcoin is on a buy signal that triggered last Wednesday at 108,278 following the sharp reversal of a fleeting spike. A balky recovery has turned the position moderately profitable, with a paper gain of $2642 so far. However, the rally will need to tack on another $2,000 to reach the red line (p=113,039), where partial profit-taking on half the position (four round lots initially, as is customary) would become obligatory.  Risk management thereafter would be predicated on a 122,562 target, but a 103,515 stop-loss will remain in force until then. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 5:41 p.m. EDT):  Ka-ching! Anyone who followed my simple instructions from last Wednesday could have exited on today's leap to 113,473 for a profit of $4076.  The secondary Hidden Pivot at 117,801 is the next logical objective, but I am not recommending a new position until I've heard from subscribers who caught the current move. 

Friday's short-squeeze bounce came from within a hair of the 'secondary' (p2) Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. The rally subsequently signaled a short sale when it hit the green line (x=6700.19).  The trade was do-able only if you used a reverse-pattern trigger to limit risk. I'm not going to recommend it because the futures are already starting to feel the magnetic pull of last week's high, 6766.75. However, we can still record a paper-trade and monitor it closely to determine whether bulls or bears are in charge at the moment. If the latter, the short should work, eventually falling to D=6500.00 despite the fright-mask intensity of Friday's rebound.