Current Touts

The wild, gratuitous price swings in the world's biggest commodity market could make energy consumers nostalgic for the 1950s, when U.S. policymakers, CIA hacks and political operatives firmly controlled Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran and other key producers. I've kept oil on the touts list nonetheless, but only as a placeholder, since technical analysis no longer gives me a confident basis for forecasting the next big move. I don't mean to suggest that crude is untradable. Far from it, actually, since the intraday swings are so fraught with duplicity, greed and fear as to have become routinely predictable. Nudge me in the chat room if you have a trading idea you'd like vetted. But don't ask me where I think oil will be trading in a month or two, or at year's end, since there is really no way of knowing. My best guess for the very near-term is that the July contract is bound for 80.21, predicated on the June 11 low at 77.22 not being violated first.

It's hard not to grow impatient with MSFT's tiresome slog toward the 456.88 target shown in the chart. The stock has spent most of 2024 diddling the secondary Hidden Pivot  (p2) at 420, but it seems likely to get there eventually. The 430.58 target of a lesser pattern seemed to work well initially as a possible bull-market top, since the stock hasn't exceeded it by more than a couple of dollars after first hitting it in mid-March. But neither has it given up much ground since, a fact that attests to the confidence the stock's sponsors have that higher prices are coming.

Although we expect the bad guys to inflict as much pain and doubt on bulls as possible, Friday's $102 plunge seemed just a tad excessive.  The low fell a hair beneath early May's 2308 low and $4 above round-number support at 2300. Many bulls would have been stopped out there, lightening the load for whatever bounce occurs this week. It may include two or three false starts, since few bulls could have expected the selling to reach the untested levels that it did in a single day.  At best, the rebound will mirror the plunge that took place after August Gold slightly exceeded the record high 2471 achieved in mid-April. Any less than that will put the futures in jeopardy of falling another $100 to test a plateau formed there in March.

The reverse pattern shown is sufficiently authoritative to imply that July Silver is unlikely to dip significantly below the 28.815 Hidden Pivot target, at least not over the near-term. It took a brutal gang-bang by sellers to bring the futures down to the pattern's point 'C' low at 28.815, but the sleazeballs who manipulate silver's price were probably piqued by the increasingly shrill noise from bulls who felt that the metal's handlers were losing control.  Bottom-fishing will enjoy favorable odds this week, so stay tuned to the chat room and turn on your email notifications if you want to stay apprised.

GDXJ fell hard to end the week, but the selling brought it down to the green line (x-42.20) to signal an enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. This will require care and tactical knowledge, since the low may be yet to come.  If it occurs from beneath Friday's 41.89 bottom, the implied bounce might not quite reach p=44.52, where partial profit-taking would be necessary. Odds of an eventual move up to D=49.15 are still favorable, but it could take the futures 4-6 days to regain its footing after getting pounded for the last three weeks.

July Crude's easy push past p=74.72 implies that this corrective bounce will reach the 'D' target at 76.95.  It should quell the rally, which will remain inconsequential until such times as May 29's 80.62 peak is surpassed. True to crude's perverse nature, news that OPEC will lift production quotas appears to have catalyzed the rally. Pump prices were coming down slowly following the April 12 top at 86.16,, but it will take a new top, even if just a minor one, to set them falling anew.

Friday's shakedown was the most brutal we've seen in, well, weeks, but we can infer it was merely corrective, since the high which preceded it exceeded the important 'external' peak at 92.76 recorded on April 4. The downtrend has farther to go nonetheless, and if you plan on bottom-fishing, I'd suggest waiting until TLT falls to at least 90.31. Please note, however, that a failure of that "hidden" support to hold would imply more slippage toward the important low at 88.68 that occurred on May 29.

A two-day close above the trendline would likely signal an end to Bertie's insufferable tease. It is a consolidation, of course, but enabled by sponsors who evidently are too gutless to lift the lid until significantly higher prices seem like a sure thing. Perhaps they can enlist the help of Roaring Kitty or some other flashy stock tout who has the ear of a malleable Wall Street Journal reporter? In any case, when Bertie finally takes off, which it sure as shootin' will, you can bet that its infinitely patient handlers are shooting for $80k or higher. ______ UPDATE (June 15): We all know that Bertie will fly toward $80,000 just as soon as its handlers sense that the time is right. Not quite yet, evidently, since this bitcoin proxy has fallen moderately since it last flirted with the trendline shown in this updated chart.  The above analysis can stand, to wit: It will take a two-day close above the trendline to trigger a breakout that should be regarded as inevitable. For your further guidance, the trendline will decline to around 71,171 by Friday.

I still consider a pullback to x=5105 more likely than a move straightaway to D=5542. A subsequent rally to the target would not be a done deal, either, given the mild struggle bulls have had surmounting the midpoint Hidden Pivot's gravitational pull.  Impale it they did not, and that leaves the pattern's completion to D at least mildly in doubt.  We can still use p=5397 as a minimum upside objective, since that is the most logical place for this rally to stall.