MSFT – Microsoft (Last:407.77)

The stock remains an odds-on bet to achieve the 449.42 rally target shown. This is one reason why, in the ES tout above, I’ve favored the scenario in which the futures make a marginal new high before a bear market begins in earnest. If MSFT should pull back to the green line first, however, that would set up a ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity that would be too juicy to pass up. It would be good for at least a one-level ride, but probably more, as my target forecast implies. ______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 3:10 p.m.): This is still the only stock we need follow for an accurate, high-confidence read on the bull market. The 449.42 target is still very much in play; moreover, the stock would trigger a back-up-the-truck ‘mechanical’ buy if it falls just a little more, to x=401.54 (stop 385.57). ______ UPDATE (Sep 6, 9:05 a.m. EDT):  I was barely stirring when MSFT took a Whoopee Cushion bounce this morning from within a hair of my back-up-the-truck number. But if you were alert to the opportunity, it’s time to cash out half of the position for around 409, the current price. Check the chat room for some Howard Cosell commentary on all the excitement. Here’s what a Whoopee Cushion bounce looks like in stop-motion.