December crude's month-long fall did sufficient damage to the longer-term charts to require a rally above $83 to undo it. However, we'll focus on the short-term picture to determine whether the bounce last Thursday from 72.16 is likely to show staying power. Steep as it was, it still fell a tad shy of the 76.62 target of the modest reverse pattern shown. Achieving it would still leave the futures two cents shy of generating an impulse leg with a leap above the external peak at 78.63 made last week on the way down. We'll delay judgment until we've seen how buyers handle both resistances.
Another vertical short-squeeze with nary a bullish buyer in sight! This is Yankee know-how in its terminal stage. Friday's wilding spree pushed the futures forcibly through the 4398 midpoint resistance shown in the chart, shortening the odds of a further move to D=4673.50. The point 'B' high of the bullish pattern is pretty sausage-y, and so we shouldn't expect the presumptive stopping power of the Hidden Pivot target to work precisely. However, the easy move past p should be viewed as a reliable sign the target will be reached. A pullback to the green line (x=4260) can be used to get long 'mechanically', although the initial risk of $5,600 on four contracts will require the use of a 'camouflage' trigger capable of cutting that by perhaps 90%.
AAPL was rising steeply as the week ended, but I've gone out on a limb with a chart that dwells on bearish possibilities just ahead. Unlike MSFT, whose vertical rally left it at new record-highs, AAPL would need to push past two daunting 'external' peaks to get there. AAPL's closing high also equaled a voodoo number that would make a logical spot for a correction to start. It would trigger a short at 182.23, assuming the stock does not take out last week's 186.40 high first. Thereupon, p=178.07 would be our minimum downside objective, where half of any shorts, including with options, would be covered. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 7:57 p.m.): A new high at 188.11 has raised the trigger on the short to 183.94, with half to be covered at p=179.78.
Sellers took out the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1947.00 with such ease the more downside to at least p2=1910.70 seems unavoidable. Thereafter, continued weakness to as low as D=1874.30 would become likely if p2 is decisively penetrated. For all its disappointments, we need to keep reminding ourselves that gold is in a bull market and that it will turn $2,000 into support only when its handlers -- mainly sovereign banks in concert with bullion bankers -- decide it's time to let 'er rip. The former will continue to accumulate gold in the meantime, and so should we. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your 'Notifications' switched on if you want guidance in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:03 p.m.): If the rally hits the green line (X=1983.40), it would trip a 'mechanical' short. Paper trade this one just to keep score unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger
More slippage to at least D=22.04 looks unavoidable, given the way sellers obliterated the midpoint support (p) early Friday morning. This Hidden Pivot lies close enough to a cluster of obvious lows recorded in mid-October near 21. They look incapable of arresting silver's fall for long, implying a further fall to October lows near 21 in search of traction. There's a Hidden Pivot support at 21.69 you can use for purposes of precise bottom-fishing (daily, A-23.24 on 10/20). _______ UPDATE Nov 14, 8:07 p.m.): The futures trampolined higher after briefly dipping below the 22.04 Hidden Pivot noted above. Now, if they can shove past p=23.44 of this pattern, they should be presumed bound for D=24.95.
The clock ran out on GDXJ when it was in the throes of a snapback rally following a dip beneath two 'internal' lows recorded around Halloween. The day ended in a 'discomfort zone' bounded by the lows and another at 32.05 from October 12. That makes it tradeable, but not by way of easy instructions that I could proffer a day in advance. However, if you're proficient at fashioning reverse triggers, you can try a 37-cent trigger interval from any low that falls in the range 32.15-32.44. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:15 p.m.): GDXJ blasted off with a gap opening, denying us, and nearly everyone else, a chance to get long. That could give the rally a little staying power, although I doubt it will get very far due to the two previous failures to poke above mid-September's 36.14 high.
Each new thrust has been impulsive, surpassing two prior peaks as required by our rules. This is a reliable sign that the bull move begun from 82.42 three weeks ago is healthy and not losing strength. The next leg up will be more challenging, however, since the nearest peak needing to be surpassed lies well above, at 96.54. Buyers will be well fortified for the task, however, given their demonstrated ability to handle lesser peaks with ease. ______ UPDATE (Nov 24): No sooner do I tout the bullishness of TLT's easy move through prior peaks than it narrowly fails to exceed a small but daunting one at 91.61 recorded on September 22. This is not necessarily the death knell for the impressive bull move from October 23's 82.77 low, but the apparent change of heart warrants close monitoring. The selling would need to hit 86,73 to generate a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, probably killing the nascent bull. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:54): The small but technically significant 'look-to-the-left' peak at 91.61 shown in this chart is crucial to the intermediate-term picture. TLT looks ready to hurdle it, which would imply more upside over the next several weeks to as high as the 97.05 peak recorded in late August
The dollar spent the week recouping half of the previous week's losses. The bounce came, however, from six cents above a 104.79 low that I'd characterized beforehand as the weakest possible correction. Expect a resumption of a powerful bull trend that will take DXY most immediately to 112.14, and thence to 124.79. Both of these Hidden Pivots were identified here last week and remain our price objectives for the intermediate-to-long-term.
Last week's succession of breakaway gaps was solidly impulsive, having exceeded the required two peaks, one internal, the other external. But in failing to go the extra inch it would have required to get past a third, the 89.49 high from September 29, bulls hinted they are slightly timid about going for the gusto. They could change that with a renewed push this week that takes out the untested peak, but the task will have been made more difficult by the sharp relapse that occurred following the fleeting high. Bottom line: the picture for T-bonds has brightened, but we shouldn't assume THE bottom is in.
Last week's decline was the sharpest in four months and could conceivably come down to the 102.23 target shown, That would amount to an approximately 5% correction, entirely normal considering the steepness of the run-up from 100 to 107 that occurred between mid-July and November. A milder correction that reverses from p=104.79 would underscore the power of the renascent bull market begun from 90 in 2021. Wherever and whenever the pullback ends, upside potential thereupon would be to p=112.14 of this pattern most immediately, and to 124.70 ultimately. It is no exaggeration to suggest that a dollar at that height will have drastically altered the global economy and its fatally financialized infrastructure.
