The dollar was plummeting when the week ended, so I've changed the view to graphically display a 99.72 target we can use as minimum downside objective for the near term. It is tied to a 'D' target at 93.55 given here previously that would equate to an 18.5% drop in the Dollar Index since it topped at 114.78 last September. This would leave it just a tad shy of 'official' bear-market territory, but considering the size of the market for dollars, it has suffered damage commensurate with a Category 5 hurricane. The dollar will have its day eventually when debt deflation rears up, but until then, debtors should be relieved that a strong dollar is not compounding their problems from higher interest rates. _______ UPDATE (Jul 15): Last week's hellish plunge brought the Dollar Index down to the 99.72 target almost precisely. This is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern projecting to as low as the 93.55 target noted above, and it must hold like a rock if the dollar is going to avoid diving anew in the months ahead. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 6:29 p.m.): The support is holding, but only barely. It is not a bullish sign that sellers have been pounding on it for a week.
The week ended with a thud, but the futures still failed to take out any lows on the daily chart. The first lies 66 points below Friday's close, but it would take a further drop exceeding early June's 4305 low to create even a hint of menace. In contrast, there are numerous bullish signs whose significance is beyond question. For one, a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 4471.00 has been exceeded twice. This might look like a double top to some, but the fact that so challenging an impediment was exceeded at all suggests that any weakness will be merely corrective. Also, all price action since early June has occurred with the futures trading above a key 'external' peak at 4409 recorded last August. Under the circumstances, I'd suggest treating any further weakness, if it occurs at all, as a buying opportunity. Set an alert at 4305 if you like, but don't let nutty intraday swings faze you or encourage excess in the meantime.
August Gold has struggled for loft after bouncing from just beneath a Hidden Pivot support at 1903.90 that I'd flagged on June 29. Bullion tends to taunt us with weakness before rallying sharply (albeit fleetingly) to nowhere in particular. In this case, however, it looks like it wants to go lower in order to get better footing for a sustained uptrend. We can use the 1875.00 downside target shown for now, but we'll switch to a more bullish outlook for trading purposes if buyers can push above an external peak at 1949.00 recorded two weeks ago. _______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 10:15 a.m.): The futures tripped a 'mechanical' short when they came within a hair of x=1969.30 at 8:35. The subsequent $12 dive could have been shorted with a reverse-pattern trigger, but I am suggesting only that you paper-trade this one. If it is stopped out with a rally above the pattern's 'C' high, that would be the most bullish event we've seen in a while. Even then, we shouldn't trust the rally until it has created a series of impulse legs on the lesser charts.
Silver has more stubbornly resisted the tug of gravity than gold, but the 21.44 downside target remains a logical short-term price objective nonetheless. An unexpected pop to 23.90 would trigger a 'conventional' buy signal, but until such time as that occurs, we should trade this contract with a bearish bias. Although it seems unlikely the 22.34 low recorded on June 23 will prove to be an important one, it is capable if it endures of launching the futures to as high as 28.56.
GDXJ would give gold-stock bulls reason for optimism if it can pop above the 'external' peak at 37.68 recorded on June 16. However, it is more realistic to expect additional slippage toward the 32.25 low that has shaped the pattern shown. A breach thereof would create a buying opportunity, even if it were merely to take advantage of a likely fake-out rally that doesn't get very far. Please note that GDXJ is still on a 'mechanical' buy signal from June 20 that we passed up.
August Crude's histrionics have been easily tradeable, most recently via a nasty dive on Thursday from within three cents of a rally target advertised here when fresh touts went out to you last Sunday evening. The futures rampaged to a strong close on Friday that could get legs, but more immediately they will face resistance from the 74.29 Hidden Pivot resistance shown in this chart. Pivoteers familiar with reverse-pattern (rABC) trades can try it with a trigger interval no greater than 16 cents, but be alert to a possible short squeeze that blows the target to smithereens when trading resumes this evening.
Buyers drove AAPL through a long-term midpoint resistance at 189.07 with such force last week that there can be little doubt they are capable of achieving the 253.96 'D' target of the pattern shown. Like most powerful rallies in this stock and other lunatic-sector faves, this one achieved most of the gains on gaseous volume and without requiring a large infusion of fresh cash. That's because the thimble-riggers who control the stock allowed it to waft higher overnight, creating a short-covering gap of nearly $3 at the opening bell. An unexpected swoon to x=156.62 would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy, but that's why we shouldn't count on it. ______ UPDATE (July 5, 7:21 p.m.): So far, AAPL is just filling a gap from last Friday. However, a print below 189.11 would generate a minor impulse leg on the hourly chart that we should take note of.
The stock market remains in the grip of mass psychosis, leveraged by con-men who know how to exploit investors' stupidity and greed. Look at how DaBoyz handled a tough Hidden Pivot resistance at 4471.00 last week that had been nearly nine months in coming. Ordinarily we might have expected a correction of perhaps 5-7 weeks to give the futures enough time to recharge for a push to new record highs. Instead, the mindless herd chomped through the resistance on first encounter two weeks ago, then returned on Friday to devour what was left. The implication is that the 4819 target shown in this composite weekly chart is in play and can be used by traders as a minimum upside projection. Meanwhile, a voodoo number at 4562 is the first place we might expect a significant, tradeable reversal.
August Gold turned from nearly exactly where expected, a 1903.90 Hidden Pivot support of middling importance. The actual low occurred at 1900.60, strongly suggesting that our bid was front-run by others using the same, visually obvious pattern we employed to project a downside target. If it turns out that too many smart guys got aboard for this reason, we should expect the futures to screw 'em all by stopping out the 1900.60 low before embarking on a sustained rally. This should have a positive impact on our ability to trade this vehicle profitably, since exploiting fake-outs is our forte. In any event, an alternative target at 1875.00 will remain viable, at least in theory, until such time as 2000.70 (i.e., an alternative 'C' high) is exceeded to the upside.
The way sellers crushed p=22.92 on June 21 leaves little room for optimism that this correction will somehow avoid falling all the way down to the 21.21 target of the pattern shown. In fact, even a strong rally to the green line (x=23.77) would set up a 'mechanical' short that we should not pass up. The pattern meets all of our requirements for legitimacy but is perhaps a tad too obvious to produce a tradeable low at exactly 21.21. We'll attempt to bottom-fish there nonetheless if and when the time comes, but with a 'camouflage' trigger that allows for some skirmishing ahead of the expected turn. We'll also need to consider an alternative target at 20.98 that would result from treating the somewhat higher 'A' at 26.43 (May 5) as a one-off peak. _______ UPDATE (July 3, 5:55 p.m.): The equivalent downside target for the September contract is 21.44, and a rally to 23.98 would trip a mechanical' short.
