On a long-term chart, the exceptionally clean reverse pattern shown reveals some mildly disturbing signs that we hadn't detected before. First there was the dip beneath the pattern's D target at 3584.75. The 80-point overshoot amounts to 2.2%, and although that may not seem like much, for a pattern this crisp, any breach exceeding even 1% should be viewed as moderately bearish. The stall on the rebound at p=4196 is not quite as compelling because the Hidden Pivot levels were already spent. However, the bounce from D appears to have lacked guts because it died well shy of the 'external' peak just to the left. All of these factors together do not necessarily spell collapse, but they argue for trading the S&Ps with a bearish bias. Here's a weekly chart of the June contract that projects to as low as 3425.75 if sellers take out p=3834.88 decisively. The futures were a spec buy when they nearly touched the red line, but because the low missed it by five points, a run-up to the green line would not trigger a 'mechanical' short under a strict interpretation of our rules. I've offered a bigger picture than usual because smaller ones show an impacted mess that is best traded on sub-hourly charts. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:00 p.m. EDT): This afternoon's universally expected outbreak of mental illness produced no significant changes in the technical picture. A Mexican standoff began on Feb 13 when the futures reversed from p=3824 of this presumptive bear-market pattern. This was a logical place for a trend, even a major one, to end, but we will continue to bide our time trading the swings until a clearer signal comes. Bears may be feeling burned out by now, but that is no reason for them to think the bear rally
Just a little more selling would have brought May Crude down to a back-up-the-truck low at 64.25 where we would all have become bulls. Alas, the futures ran out the clock last week pussyfooting with lows just above this Hidden Pivot support, leaving a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the world's most valuable commodity as the new week begins. There is obviously a lot of bottom-fishing going on, so we should expect some more stop-outs beneath prior lows before crude gets traction. Another possibility, less likely, would be a gap-up opening on Sunday that leaves bulls choking on dust. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 9:14 p.m.): The futures rallied nearly $4 from a 64.36 low that missed my target by 11 cents. This happened at 5:00 a.m., however, an inconvenient time for U.S.-based traders. Only one subscriber mentioned it, so I have not established a tracking position. Here's the chart.
AAPL has taken many a fall from these level since September, and so a breakout above the 158.74 peak circled in the chart would generate a strong impulse leg. Some will also see a bullish, inverted H&S pattern, which in this case is compelling enough to overcome my usual skepticism toward such formations. Immediate upside potential on a breakout would be to the 161.07 D target of this pattern, or 163.58 if any higher. That last number is derived from a lower 'A' at 138.81 recorded on Jan 25. _____ UPDATE (Mar 23, 4:32 p.m.): Today's wild swings effectively fulfilled the 162.47 rally target shown. The target is a correction of one at 163.58 given here earlier that was based on an erroneous coordinate. I doubt that AAPL's handlers are done short-squeezing the stock skyward vaporous volume, but they definitely hit real supply at the Hidden Pivot that will require some rest. Use a 167.42 target for the next big upthrust. It was calculated by simply sliding 'A' down to Jan 19's 133.77 low.
DaBoyz are taking no prisoners in this rampage to 28,548, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks likely to be fulfilled precisely. That means that if you've been riding with the move, you should either lighten up or put on some hedges when it gets to where it's going The pattern is gnarly enough to favor all of our entry strategies, but there have been no pullbacks generous enough to offer a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on charts of this degree. Once above 28,548, bulls will have a lot of chewing to do in order to munch their way through supply just above, and below, the psychologically interesting number 30,000. Those who are trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices will probably need to see 45,000 before they turn from prayerful to greedy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:00 a.m. EDT): The above was written after Friday's close. However, that was before I noticed a WSJ story that had been published around the same time. It began as follows: "Barney Frank says regulators seized Signature Bank last weekend because they wanted to send a message to other banks not to do business with the crypto industry. The evidence increasingly suggests the former Congressman could be right." It is 8:40 Saturday morning, and BRTI for whatever reason appears not to be trading. This is unusual, but perhaps it is just a regular Saturday pause that I hadn't noticed before. In any event, I'll be interested to see how the article affects bitcoin. There are times when seemingly devastating news has no initial impact on a trading vehicle; then, after a baffling period of seeming calm, said vehicle collapses. These delays can be orchestrated by the usual dirtballs, who wisely resist the temptation to panic. This allows them to keep the trading vehicle hovering at altitude for
The big, lovely pattern shown (see inset) should serve our purposes for trading and analysis as the new week begins. That means we could have bought p=3847.13 on Friday and made a few bucks. As a practical matter, however, I rarely advise initiating a position at the closing bell. We have no way of knowing with confidence whether the midpoint support will be breached. Indeed, for all we can tell, the so-far modest rally from this Hidden Pivot could mark an important low for this correction of the bear market rally begun in October. However, we do know that if the futures relapse and smash p=3847, that would set them on a path down to at least p2=3667.19, or perhaps even to D=3487.25. Both can be bottom-fished, but the larger opportunity would lie in getting short on the way down. Pivoteers will notice that I've used the middle peak of three to fix a point 'A' high. I refer to such middle-of-the-road coordinates as Pontiac/Oldsmobile peaks to drive home the point that they don't usually work. In this case, though, my choice is justified by the bounce precisely from p, which tends to corroborate the pattern itself. It will be trustworthy in any case (i.e., good enough for government work) with regard to the 'read' a decisive breach of p would give us on trend strength. Here's a smaller chart of a pattern that I posted Friday afternoon. I said it would control DaBoyz' manipulations, as it indeed did. Notice that it signaled two profitable 'mechanical' buys during the afternoon. The 3893.50 'D' rally target is still viable, pending whatever stupid tricks the Sunday night sleazeballs can gin up. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 6:12 p.m.): DaBoyz don't know they are being ruled by this pattern in the June contract right
I could just as easily have supplied a big, bearish pattern peak to begin the week, but I settled on a more modest discouragement, since AAPL seems reluctant to fall apart. Still, rallies have been routinely failing to exceed prior peaks, and that's reason enough to favor the bearish (i.e., corrective) case for now. The graph shows the stock to have triggered a 'mechanical' short last Monday with a heavily engineered lunatic leap that would have added nearly $100 billion to the U.S. economy in mere minutes. The subsequent relapse 'should' be able to hit p=146.23, but it's not predictable at the moment whether further weakness will be sufficient to crush it. If AAPL's canny sponsors seize the upper hand and run the stock up the old wazoo, look for yet another fraudulent but potent rally to 159.96 (180-min, A=.141.32 on 2/1). Otherwise, the 135.07 target shown will remain viable as a downside objective. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 9:03 a.m.): The smash low of AAPL's $4.70 reversal from an overnight peak has bounced from within a nickel of the 146.23 Hidden Pivot noted above. [This occurred an hour before the regular session opened.] The stock has been there before, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line that would have required taking a partial profit (at p) this morning. Let's see if the low holds. If not, p2=140.65 would be in play as a minimum downside objective. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:23 p.m.): The stock appear bound for 160.09, the Hidden Pivot 'D' target shown in this chart.
Friday's rally caught me by surprise. It had such power that I'm tempted to trust my lying eyes instead of questioning how Treasurys could rally so sharply with the Fed working hard to turn them into garbage. Be that as it may, the upthrust seems likely to reach the 107.10 midpoint pivot shown (see inset). That number is tied to a Hidden Pivot 'D' target at 115.32 that would represent a 25% rally from October's 91.85 low. The midpoint pivot will offer the most challenging test bulls have faced since their failure to surpass the December high at 109.68 in February. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:`9 p.m.): Today's seemingly ferocious rally turned gutless just shy of the daunting peak at 109.35 recorded on February 2. The subsequent relapse was sharp, presumably trapping many bulls badly. Let's see how long it takes them to muster another charge. A pullback to x=102.99 would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 98.87. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 6:26 p.m.): A further decline touching x=102.99 would trigger a juicy bottom-fishing opportunity via a 'mechanical' bid. Let's try it with options, bidding 0.28-0.31 for ten 14 April 114 calls, day order. If we buy 'em we'll seek to spread them off on a rally to zero out risk. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:33 a.m.): TLT surged higher overnight, stranding our stingy bid. The trade recommendation can stand for today, but it is unlikely to fill.
Gold's gratuitous feints in both directions have become tiresome, and so I'm not going to get too heavily invested in the opportunistic leap it took Friday on dollar weakness. The pattern shown says a 'mechanical' short would trigger at x=1925.00, but I would not be especially enthused about laying out a few contracts there, since the bearish energy of the A-B leg has had a lot of time to diffuse. The short can be attempted nonetheless, provided we use a 'camouflage' trigger to initiate the trade. In any event, the 1774.50 downside target that was first signaled on February 2 remains theoretically viable, if no longer compelling. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:27 p.m.): This should be interesting now that the flight to safety that has followed SVB's collapse is looking more like a buying panic. The 'mechanical' short at 1925 still looks enticing, but I'll suggest paper trading it unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger near the green line. This implies doing the trade on the five-minute chart (or less) when x is hit. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:44 a.m.): Buyers impaled x=1925 without triggering any shorts (other than a 'conventional'-type entry at x that we never use). Price action within the pattern is still interesting for what it seems to predict -- i.e., that a one-level relapse to p=1874.90 that would make the short profitable is still more likely than a rally exceeding C=1975.20. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:31 p.m.): When April Gold punches through the midpoint resistance at 1938.00, it'll be bound (exactly) for D=1964.50 of this pattern.
It may be premature to switch to a bullish chart in Silver, especially considering that price action n gold has been so wishy-washy. However, the May contract triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on Friday when it vaulted to the green line (see inset) and then exceeded it by 1.5 cents. We can therefore project more upside to p=21.79, but we should be prepared nonetheless for a relapse below 'C' that would negate the bullish target. If the futures achieve p=21.79, straightaway, a relapse to x=20.86 would set up a very enticing 'mechanical' buy that we could initiate using a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. ______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:35 p.m. EDT): The slight overshoot of p (adjusted to 21.82) is bullish and shortens the odds of a continuation to D=23.69 (also adjusted). A swoon to x=20.88 would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 19.94.
Last week's sturm und drang just above a 31.70 correction target that has been too long in coming was a challenge to watch. The target remains valid in theory and can be bottom-fished with confidence, but we may not be gifted with such a last-gasp move lower to clear the air. In fact, Friday's gap-up rally created a promising impulse leg on the lesser charts, and so we should be prepared to begin the week with a bullish bias. Here's the chart. Notice the look-to-the-left peak that qualifies the upthrust as even stronger than it appeared.
