Current Touts

As steep and relentless as the correction from January's peak at $41 has been, bears are going to have a tough time taking out the 31.70 Hidden Pivot support of the compelling reverse pattern shown. It can be bought speculatively with a tight stop, but be careful, since the mere exposure of this number on the Rick's Picks home page could attract the unwanted attention of the droolers, algos and trade-desk moneys we frequently compete against. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 10:22 p.m.): GDXJ has generated a fresh impulse leg on each of the last three days, but there's more work to be done if it's going to win our confidence. For starters, it failed by an inch today to achieve the 34.10 target of this pattern, a sign that buyers are tiring. If they should get second wind, they'll still have to push above structural resistance in the form of two peaks that lie, respectively, at 34.77 and 35.15 from mid-February. Your trading bias should be bullish, but don't hesitate to nail down a partial profit if the opportunity should arise.

The smart guys who remain badly trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices are doing their best to milk this rally for all it's worth. That means resisting the temptation to unload with bitcoin trading nearly 65% above its November lows of around 15,000 . They have not been putting much pressure on it or breaking ranks, which shows how disciplined they are. Many Robin Hoodies, Antifa thugs and Wired subscribers have doubtless been praying for a rally that would reduce their losses from catastrophic to merely horrific. However, the smart guys know that if they can waft this hoax high enough - 35,000 would be my guess -- millions of erstwhile losers will turn from prayerful and contrite to hopeful, and, ultimately, greedy. At that point they will be imagining that new all-time highs are not merely possible, but likely. That's how it works, so expect a push next week, on gossamer volume, toward the 32,354 peak recorded last May. There is a voodoo number at 28,779 where you could attempt intercepting this projectile, but don't fight the rally too aggressively. ______ UPDATE (Feb 25): Bertie effortlessly marked time last week, thumbing its nose at broad weakness in the stock market. Not only is it capable of catapulting itself to 32,354 (see above) at the first opportunity (i.e., when stocks reverse), it could swoon below 20,000 without a twinge of concern or discomfort.

Let's start the week with modest expectations, since the March contract spent the last three weeks screwing the pooch. That's not bad, actually, considering the cascade of dispiriting earnings announcements over that period. The pattern shown projects a run-up of as much as 130 points over the near term to a 4215.75 target, assuming the futures are ready to ditch the doldrums. The ABCD is a little too obvious to deliver swing highs and lows that are as reliable and precise as we're used to, but it will probably support a favorable  'mechanical'  buy if there's a pullback to the green line from above p=4135.75. ______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 12:16 p.m.): Today's plunge following a three-day weekend generated the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart in more than five months. I have drawn a bullish 'reverse' pattern nevertheless because the intraday low occurred precisely at the 'D' target of a presumptive abcd correction. The recovering bounce has been feeble so far, and that's a point in bears' favor at the moment. However, that could change overnight, and if the futures do in fact continue their bounce, nearly any reverse pattern you could draw to trigger a bull trade would be a good bet to return a profit. Alternatively, if the March contract relapses and closes for two consecutive days beneath the 4002.00 intraday low, a fall to at least p=3796.00 would become no worse than an even bet. A slight overshoot of that midpoint Hidden Pivot support could generate a quite powerful impulse leg if there are no significant upward retracements en route, lending weight to speculation that papa bear has returned with a vengeance.

Gold futures continued to head lower as anticipated, presumably bound for the 1774.50 'D' target of the by now familiar  pattern shown.  The downtrend bounced precisely from a Hidden Pivot level (p2=1824.70 ), just as it did the previous week when p=1874.90 caught an encouraging bounce. I won't raise your hopes this time, however, since that would only invest gold with more contrarian joo-joo than it already has. (Side note: Bull markets will always be filled with discouragements big and small. It is only in retrospect that they will seem to have been fun.) We'll find a way to bottom-fish if and when the target is reached, but this might take some clever footwork, since the pattern, even though a less-obvious 'reversal', is not likely to be under-observed.

I've raised the point 'A' high to project a 20.105 downside target that is more bearish than any aired here recently. The pattern and its target are somewhat corroborated by the initial bounce precisely from p=21.37, but also by the subsequent dance around that number for two more days. We should know early in the week whether bears are likely to remain dominant over the near-term, since a bounce touching x=22.003 would trigger a textbook 'mechanical' short. I'll suggest paper-trading this one nonetheless, unless you know how to cut the nearly $13k of entry risk down to size. Nudge me in the chat room if I'm around, since I may be able to help. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 12:28 pa.m.): The short effectively triggered with today's rally to 21.995. This implies that the futures are likely to fall to at least p=21.37. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 9:50 p.m.): So the futures fell to 21.43, and I really don't know whether that's 'close enough'. Wake me when something happens.

Uh-oh. Looks like the groundhog saw his shadow. Friday's breach of the 'D' Hidden Pivot support at 33.96 was bearish, although not necessarily fatal. It also stopped out a key low at 33.89 from December, generating an impulse leg of daily-chart degree and the presumption of a rally that is merely corrective.  The outlook would brighten somewhat if GDXJ  can achieve 36.00, exceeding a mildly challenging peak from last week. Since the small dip beneath December's low would have stopped out many bulls and lightened the profit-taking load on the rebound, we should hope its feistiness continues for at least another day or two. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 3:55 p.m.): A chat room denizen said he thought GDXJ might be bottoming right here, but I doubt it. My response to him was as follows: "Wishful thinking, perhaps, in that GDXJ pattern, S_____.  Here's a more realistic pattern that has bearishly breached a perfectly good D support: https://bit.ly/3Es5HB2  Another minor 'D' at 33.16 is holding so far (A=37.71 on 2/7), but if it gives way the next stop on the southbound local would be p2=31.94 (60-min, A=40.27 on 2/2; B=34.89 on 2/24)."

Our focus for some time has been on the upper trendline of a channel that dates back to the fourth quarter of 2021. It will come in around 167 this week, and that's why I've focused on a smaller chart whose 'D' target at 165.28 would nearly fulfill the longer-term objective. First things first, though. Last week's downturn from just shy of the 157.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot was not a bullish sign, but because sellers looked almost as feeble, we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt as the new week begins. Stay tuned to the chat room  or switch on your 'Email Notifications' if you're keen on catching a ride. ______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 9:55 p.m.): And down we go, impulsively so on the hourly chart. It remains bullish enough nonetheless to support a push to as high as 163.24 (A= 141.32 on 2/1) over the next 5-7 days.

I've drawn a pattern that should suffice to contain the constipated price action of this flaky proxy for global manufacturing. What you can expect in the week ahead is more range-bound trading, but with the prospect of an enticing 'mechanical' buy if the April contract should come down to the green line (x=75.12).   The implied entry risk of $10,000 on four contracts is too steep to initiate the trade conventionally, but it may be possible to cut that by as much as 90% with close attention to bullish entry patterns on the lesser charts. Stay tuned to the chat room if interested. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 10:01 p.m.): The trade mentioned above triggered, but only on paper, since no one mentioned it in the chat room. Whatever happens next, even if it's a breakdown, promises to be as inconsequential as everything else that's occurred on the daily chart since August. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25): Zzzzzzzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 6:40 p.m.): April Crude looked ripe for bottom-fishing this afternoon, based on the 70.50 D target shown in this chart. Alas, the futures turned higher from just above it, mooting the opportunity. The pattern seemed gnarly enough to work, but the fact that the three coordinates are so obvious when viewed at-a-glance might have argued otherwise. Today's price action leaves me more open to the possibility that crude may be carving out a short-term bottom. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 11:58 p.m.): Crude carved out a possible bottom all right (see above) -- with the steepest one-day plunge since July!  The 65.65 low was foreseeable, or very nearly so, but arguably too distant from D=65.03 to cue up the kind of tight-fisted rABC entry we prefer. The bounce was ferocious, but it remains to be seen whether it

Although TLT's downtrend reversed last week from very near the 101.33 Hidden Pivot where we'd expected it, I doubt that this will mark sellers' final gasp. It would take a rally exceeding the 104.83 'external' peak recorded on Valentine's Day to bring some bullish energy to the chart. However, my hunch is that a test of structural support around 99.40, where a double bottom was carved out in the final days of 2022, is more likely.