Current Touts

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:36.01)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Last week's hellish dive has brought GDXJ within easy distance of the green line (x=36.30) where I'd suggested bottom-fishing. Like many of the best 'mechanical' trades, this one should have you feeling queasy in the wake of such a determined selloff.  This pattern implies it will be short-lived, since there is no mistaking its attractiveness. A stop-loss at 33.88, just below 'C', would risk nearly $1,000 on four round lots, but we'll look to cut that down to size with 'camouflage' when GDXJ triggers the trade by touching  x.  If you're interested, stay close to the chat room discussion when it gets closer. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 4:15 p.m.): The scary trade is now 'live', at least in theory. However, because a few minor supports have been stopped out, I'd suggest paper-trading this one. If the trade doesn't work, I would infer it's because the point 'B' high of the relevant pattern was not impulsive -- i.e., it narrowly failed to surpass the June 16 'external' peak at 37.81. In addition, the subsequent C-D leg failed at p2=41.11, well shy of another important 'external' peak at 42.19. All of this is shown in this chart.

TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:106.71)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Last week's rally died in the midst of some challenging peaks near 110 recorded in December. The subsequent selloff has been steep and probably needs to fall farther before  TLT can turn around.  That implies that p=105.87 is unlikely to hold as support and that the selloff will eventually hit D=104.62.  Plan on bottom-fishing just below there, nearer 104.45, since the target coincides with a prior low.  As always, a decisive overshoot of a 'buying' number would portend more slippage.

CLH23 – March Crude (Last:79.76)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

March Crude has been taking its sweet time falling to the 58.84 target shown in the chart. We're all rooting for it to get there, and soon, since it would be churlish to wish instead for oil-company executives to do the right thing by committing seppuku. They've been reporting record profits that dwarf any achieved in the past, and this is surely starting to grate on all of us.  The patterns shown in the chart (inset) seems likely to work, since it has already triggered two 'mechanical' shorts at the green line that paid off in a big way. ______ UPDATE (Feb 10):  Someone please wake me if crude jitterbugs its way above the 83.14 'external' peak, creating the first interesting impulse leg since mid-October.  That'd be just what America needs right now: a return to $5 gas.

BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:23,750)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

With Sam Bankman Fried's sordid tale no longer getting airplay, the hucksters in charge of bitcoin have seized the moment to goose cryptos higher with almost no bullish buying. It remains to be seen where heavy supply will spoil the fun, but you can count on delusion-resistant pockets of it at round numbers: 25,000, 30,000, 35,000 and so on. The first is likely to give way shortly, if for no other reason than that a series of highs made there in July and August looms, a tempting bullseye on the backs of doubters. Moreover, no one would be stupid enough to get short here and now, rendering that additional source of supply moot. Nearly all of our 'mechanical' trades in bitcoin over the years have been profitable because this tactic is particularly well suited to exploiting vehicles that move violently. In this case, however, we'll pass up the recent signal to get short at x=21,774 and wait for a less risky chance at 'voodoo' numbers that lie, respectively, near 30,000 and 40,000. Whether bitcoin gets there or not depends entirely on whether the bear rally in stocks keeps on going. When the cryptos eventually resume their fall to oblivion, however, you can bet that the first few days of the collapse will astound with their magnitude. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10): Turns out there was supply lurking at 25,000 after all -- so much of it, in fact, that this flying pig barely poked its snout above 24,000 before sellers smacked it down. The high was strongly impulsive on the daily chart nonetheless, so buyers will assuredly be back when 'news' that could be construed as even remotely bullish for cryptos surfaces. Here's the picture. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:43 p.m.): Once above mid-August's peak at 25,203, BRTI's no-supply crime spree

ESH23 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:4189.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I'm still shaking my head, wondering how I got played this morning. Seems I was too eager for the weak opening to turn into Antietam for bulls. Viewed with hindsight and proper perspective, however, the rigged, oversold opening was the same old one-trick pony we've seen a hundred times before, and it barely dented the bullish chart shown in the inset. This simple view says the bear market rally is headed most immediately to 4220.25, although I'm tempted to use a marquee 'A' at 3735.00 that would max out the pattern at 4233.50. That should be it for this hoax, but let's keep an open mind. Of the two targets, we'll take our pick and get short when -- not if -- the futures get there.  We can go with the bullish flow in the meantime -- no matter what the news or how dismal the earnings announcements, and regardless of how brazenly the openings are manipulated. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 11:32 a.m.): Here's the ES chart, updated. I have settled on the maxed-out target at 4233.50 (as implied when I bold-faced it to begin with). Market behavior lately has been as deranged as I can ever recall. The chart eliminates the wacko-o psychosis of price movements in gold, ES and FAANGs, etc. and renders them, simply, as impulse legs and ABCD patterns that don't care about craziness. None of it has disturbed the target, which went out to you last Sunday, when the futures were trading 100 points lower.

TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:106.71)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The steep, slick wall created by last summer's plunge left us with no 'external' peaks to judge the staying power of the bounce since October's 91.85 low. I've used an unconventional 'reverse' pattern to provide some clues, and it would seem to imply that TLT will rally to at least D=113.78. This is affirmed by its unwillingness to provide bulls with any good 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the daily or weekly charts. We'll want to pay close attention if the rally exceeds 113.78 and pushes toward a test of the 120.69 peak recorded in August. Its decisive breach would be a big deal, since that would suggest interest rates are likely to keep falling.

GCJ23 – April Gold (Last:1931.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I still think this is the pattern that will usher gold futures above $2,000 for the fist time since since April -- just not on our schedule. It did nothing as the week ended to monetize the 'mechanical' buy triggered on Thursday, although the position was showing a slight gain at the closing bell. I cannot 'guarantee' D=2017.70 will be reached, since buying died precisely at the 1966.60 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance  (p was a decent speculative short, actually, for subscribers who trade this vehicle aggressively). If the futures dip below the green line and you hold no position, try bottom fishing at 1921.2 with a stop-loss at 1920.80. This is a speculative play based on the 60-minute chart where a= 1966.10 on 1/26 and b=1935.10. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 6:42 a.m.): Last week's stall at the p midpoint pivot of D=2017.70 is about to have consequences, with the futures poised to negate the pattern noted above with a marginal dip (or worse) below C=1915.50. They'll come down to around 1900 if they slip any lower, or possibly even to 1891.10 to test an important low recorded there on January 12. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 10:23 p.m.): Ha ha very funny. The futures' dive on the opening bar failed by a tick to stop out the bullish pattern and its 2017.70 target. If the April contract hits p=1966.6 and then falls again to x=1941.10, that's would trip a 'mechanical' buy that I'd recommend, subject to the usual caveats. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 6:26 pm.): The drop from just shy of 1966 only came down to 1955.40, so there was no trade. It left this pattern, with a short-term target at 1982.30. The  pattern  looks opportune for a 'mechanical' buy following a one-level pullback to either p=1968.90 or x=1962.10. Attempt the

SIH23 – March Silver (Last:23.72)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I've altered the view somewhat, lowering point A' and its target to make the chart seem less discouraging. Previously, there was an unachieved rally target at 24.95 that stayed perpetually out of reach despite gold's having achieved a corresponding target.  The justification is that Silver is in a bull market, which implies that the two-month struggle to achieve D has been accumulation rather than distribution.  Even so, March Silver may have to fall out of its tedious range to get a running start on a new recovery high. In the meantime, it remains untradeable, other than by those who enjoy hunkering down on the 15-minute chart for days on end.

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:39.51)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Having topped last week a penny below a longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 41.17, GDXJ presumably will need a little rest for the next upthrust. When this mining ETF takes flight, the 43.49 Hidden Pivot shown in the chart can serve as a minimum price objective. The pattern is less than ideal, since B is a 'sausage' peak that failed to surpass some external peaks well to the left. However, the subsequent dance so close to p= 38.71 has made up for the typical sausage drawbacks of unreliability and inaccuracy. Moreover, it's hard to imagine GDXJ lacking the power to reach D no matter how illegitimate the pattern. A vicious swoon to x=36.31 would trigger a screaming 'mechanical' buy. In this case, however, given the relentless persistence of the trend, it can be attempted on a pullback to p=38.71 with a  stop-loss at 37.11. Paper-trade this one if you still need persuading that the preponderance of 'mechanical' trades posted here and in the chat room are winners. _______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 11:37 a.m. EST): If this unusually vicious takedown continues, X=36.31 should be bought 'mechanically', stop 33.92. A 'camo' trigger should be used to reduce entry risk by perhaps 90%. This gambit is 'textbook', but paper-trade it if you are not yet comfortable with 'mechanical' set-ups.

ESH23 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:4040.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I'd said shorting 4118.00 would be a no-brainer on Friday -- except that the futures didn't get there. Instead, they topped almost exactly at the 'D' target of the lesser pattern shown in the chart (inset). Bears shouldn't get their hopes too high however, since I expect the futures to reverse Sunday night or Monday and reach D=4118.00. It can be shorted with a very tight stop-loss -- preferably with a tight 'camo' set-up on a lesser chart -- but we'll need to pay close attention in any case to how the rally interacts with a D resistance that has been three weeks in coming. There are no 'mechanical' buys left in the pattern no matter how hard ES falls, since it is spent. ______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:36 a.m. EST): Like many of you, I don't trust my lying eyes when I see the bear market rally fall precipitously ahead of the opening, as it is doing today. Usually that means DaBoyz are fixing to exhaust sellers, the better to short-squeeze stocks an hour later. We should know shortly if their scheme is doomed and the bear rally begun in October has ended, since the decline has triggered a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 4053, stop 4027. If the stop is hit and no sharp rally follows immediately after, that would suggest that the heavily engineered celebration on Wall Street since mid-October is over. As of Friday, ES had not quite reached a juicy target at 4118 where I'd suggested getting short. The top actually occurred nine points below it, at the exact 'D' target of a lesser pattern noted at the time. Stocks supposedly fell overnight because earnings announcements due out this week from four behemoths -- Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook -- might have to acknowledge deepening (albeit