The steep, slick wall created by last summer’s plunge left us with no ‘external’ peaks to judge the staying power of the bounce since October’s 91.85 low. I’ve used an unconventional ‘reverse’ pattern to provide some clues, and it would seem to imply that TLT will rally to at least D=113.78. This is affirmed by its unwillingness to provide bulls with any good ‘mechanical’ buying opportunities on the daily or weekly charts. We’ll want to pay close attention if the rally exceeds 113.78 and pushes toward a test of the 120.69 peak recorded in August. Its decisive breach would be a big deal, since that would suggest interest rates are likely to keep falling.