Rick’s Picks

Since triggering a theoretical buy signal at the green line (x=105.89) a month ago, the dollar index has corrected only slightly and not closed below it. This implies that the next significant move will up and that it will take DXY to 112.20, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a long-term pattern that projects to as high as 124.82. This is bad news for all who owe dollars, although it may eventually force the big spenders on Capitol Hill to rein in deficit spending.  I used to think a strong dollar would force an end to Powell's tightening regime, but perhaps the deflationary implosion it could cause is what he intended all along.

Gold completed a shallow consolidation last week before launching toward the 2068.00 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. If buyers plow through this Hidden Pivot, our next price objective would be 2133.10, calculated by sliding the point 'A' low of the reverse pattern down to an 1820.00 low recorded last November. That would produce a conventional ABCD pattern, but it would be sufficiently gnarly to make the resulting Hidden Pivot levels useful for trading.

The spike that capped the recent rally narrowly failed to surpass an 'external' peak at 24.05 recorded a month earlier. It was not all we might have hoped for. But there was more resistance than appeared, including a second, very sharp peak that caught bulls off guard before crushing them in a two-day cascade.  Now, looking on the bright side, with gold promising to drag silver higher, we should expect this pullback to give way to an exuberant thrust that clears not just the prior peaks, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 24.02. Once the December contract is above them, we'll be able to trade 'em up as bulls cruise to at least p2=25.60.

The October 20 rally top at 35.36 failed to impulse above some peaks from mid-September, casting a shadow on the chart shown. This dour price action will likely have consigned GDXJ to a test of the midline of a channel that has contained this vehicle's ups and downs for the last six months. However, since my outlook for gold and silver is bullish, I expect the midline to hold and to support a bounce that breaks out of the channel. My minimum upside objective thereafter would be 42.09, the 'D' Hidden Pivot target of a reverse pattern flagged here earlier.

With the geopolitical cauldron boiling, crude's docility is hard to fathom. One theory has it that the heavy manipulation that has always characterized energy markets has conspired to suppress the price of crude so that war fears don't stampede the herd. All it would require to trigger a global war is for some Russia-armed enemy of America to take a potshot at one of the U.S. aircraft carriers stationed in the Middle East right now. My 117 rally target for December crude will remain viable in any case, but the futures will first need to overcome the drag created when they fell last week after failing to take out an 'external' peak at 89.60 from October 2. Most immediately, that would require a decisive move past the 86.33 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. ______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 9:16 p.m. EDT): All things considered, oil's price decline is quite impressive. However, it looks like those who have been manipulating it lower will run out of room at 79.94. the Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart.

With the Middle East war threatening to escalate on Friday, it's odd that sellers couldn't deliver a knockout punch. They spent the entire session running the futures up and down within a 20-point range, turning what should have been a rout into a merely moderate decline. Not only did they fail to bury the broad averages, bears couldn't even reach the first of two downside targets in the E-Mini S&P futures at 4100.00.  The second lies at 4o68.50, and it seems likely to be reached by Tuesday if not sooner. We won't necessarily attempt bottom-fishing because corrective rallies have been pretty anemic lately. ______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 4:08 p.m.):  Anemic price action has mutated into a full-blown short squeeze, investors either havinginginging grown bored with the pace of Israel's invasion of Gaza or completely forgotten about it. For now, use the 4310.50 target of this pattern as a minimum upside objective.

A 146.13 target is the most pessimistic I've identified to date, but in the interim we should use the 159.98 Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart as a minimum projection. An $8 rally to the green line (x=176.75) would likely be construed by many if not most investors as a bullish resurgence, but we should see it first as an opportunity to get short there 'mechanically'. Alternatively, we'll try bottom-fishing with call options if AAPL continues along its tortuous path lower.

The monthly chart shown offers an unorthodox view that should be held in mind as the dollar makes its way higher. Much higher. Last week I presented a weekly chart that went back to 2019 with a 124.72 target. This one stretches back to 2004 and has a somewhat less ambitious 'D' target at 119.37.  I'll suggest sticking with the earlier version to get a precise handle on trend strength in the weeks ahead. Specifically, you should use its 112.16 midpoint resistance as a minimum upside projection for the next six to eight weeks. However, in the highly unlikely event of a vicious swoon to the green line of this monthly chart (x= 96.03) , you'll be able to recognize it for what it is: just a correction.

Although my technical forecasts have generally been accurate, occasional guesses about when the sky would fall have consistently underimagined the height of bullish folly. Since yet another October looks likely to pass without a stock-market crash, perhaps it's a good time to look at the chart of Apple, an institutional proxy that is incapable of misleading us.  Nearly every portfolio manager on the planet owns the stock, and for good reason. It has been the easiest ticket to wealth since farmers in Quincy, FL,  acting on the advice of a local banker, started accumulating Coca-Cola shares in the 1920s. So what is AAPL's chart saying now, as the Fed continues to tighten a noose around the consumption-based U.S. economy?  Although investors have already discounted a slowdown in iPhone sales by cutting the value of Apple shares by 30%, they seem confident that no revenue disaster awaits. My own outlook calls for the stock to fall to at least 146.13, representing a 26% decline from July's record-high 198.23 and a 13% fall from here. That would be painful for shareholders to endure, but still just a routine bear market correction. And although there can be no guarantees that a lasting bottom will form at 146.13, bulls will at least have a chance to build a base there for another big leg up. Two More Reasons There are two other bullish signs in the chart. For one, the July top decisively exceeded a compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 188.96 that we might have expected to contain the long-term uptrend. And for two, the steep rally begun from $124 in January exceeded two major 'external' peaks without taking a breather. This qualified the rally as strongly impulsive, implying that the so-far moderate selloff has been merely corrective. In order to turn the monthly