There are some fine nuances contained in this lesson, which focused on a minor bullish opportunity in the E-Mini S&Ps as well as a short in Comex Gold with $16 of downside potential. Because stocks and precious metal futures have been trending higher for so long, it will require a psychological adjustment on our part to trade them when they are falling. Thus, this session is part of a process to get our minds right for the inevitable resumption of the long-term secular bear in stocks.
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Bad News for Bears
– Posted in: Free TutorialsWe found an E-Mini bottom to trade during this session, since the futures had plummeted 12 points, to within a hair of an opportune midpoint pivot identified that same morning in a tout. After the trade triggered, we followed it to the point of “success,” i.e., to the C-D midpoint, where we were able to cash out half of the position. Moving on to other charts, we found some good technical reasons to be untroubled by bullion’s weakness. We also saw, in real time on the Diamonds’ weekly chart, why stock market bears should brace for more upside of as much as 900 points.
Great Day for Swing Traders!
– Posted in: TutorialsBecause several of the vehicles that Rick’s Picks trades and forecasts actively were approaching imnportant inflection points, we spent most of the session identifying possible trade set-ups. Woeking mainly with hourly charts, we located precise spots to get short in the Mini-S&P, the Mini-Dow and the Diamonds (by way of buying February 115 puts). Gold and Silver were in no hurry to go either up or down, but a close analysis revealed why, amidst the most serious correction in months, our bias should be moderately bullish.
From Small Facts, Big Conclusions
– Posted in: TutorialsGold and silver had gotten sacked earlier in the week so we took a close look at their respective charts to see whether there were any signs that the weakness might start to snowball. In fact, the most bearish technical evidence we turned up hinted only of short-lived strength in the dollar. Even this had to be qualified, however, since the rally in the dollar was proceeding from an A-B impulse leg with a fatal flaw. Check out this video if you want to see how even minor pieces of technical evidence can give one a confident grasp of the big picture.
Trade or Die!
– Posted in: TutorialsWe put a hypothetical gun to our head – “Trade or you die!” – and discovered that there are times when even the most desperate search for opportunity is likely to go unrewarded. Gold and the E-Mini S&P were both trapped in the same eddy, a lapse of activity caused by the blizzard that had brought New York and much of the East Coast to a standstill. Even so, we were able to find a cheap way to short T-Bond futures, and to justify holding a piece of the original position for additional gains.
A Look at ‘Limbo’
– Posted in: TutorialsThe day’s analysis took place with most of the vehicles tracked and traded by Rick’s Picks in limbo relative to bullish and bearish “trigger” thresholds I’d identified previously. We looked at the by-now astounding bear rally in the broad averages, finding a minor rally target that seemed all but certain to be achieved. Gold and Silver, while bullish, looked unpromising for trades that day, but we identified benchmarks in each that would raise our level of enthusiasm if achieved. Finally, in connection with a position we hold in Silver Wheaton, we delved into the art and science of trading options on the stock.
Glimpsing the Future
– Posted in: TutorialsWe found sufficient evidence of tiredness and timidity in the S&P futures to justify shorting the market speculatively, which we had already done in Rick’s Picks by buying Diamond puts. In Gold, we identified a midpoint support that subsequently provided a precisely tradable but short-lived bounce. Looking at T-Bond futures, we came up with a few more reasons to think that prices will continue to fall, and therefore interest rates to rise, in the weeks ahead. Copper and Crude looked bullish as all get-out, and we foresaw the possibility of an exhaustion spike in the latter that could take prices to as high $111 per barrel.
Forcing a Gold Trade
– Posted in: TutorialsWe forced a “camouflage” trade in March Gold during this session, and you should pay close attention to the reasons why, since the opportunity looked mediocre at best. The trade went on to achieve its ‘D’ target, hinting that the nasty correction under way in bullion this week may have run its course. We also took a close look at T-Bond futures, which have been falling hard enough to threaten Bernanke’s entire edifice. There were growing reasons for us to infer that U.S. Bonds have entered a long-term bear market, and we discussed them in detail.
Bullion in Limbo
– Posted in: TutorialsAlthough gold and silver were both trading higher, the rallies were not strong enough to carry to the very bullish targets I’d given in that day’s touts. We therefore had a chance to analyze the two vehicles “in limbo,” as it were, and to attempt a March Silver trade in real time. The trade was stopped out, but it provided a useful learning experience nonetheless, since it was initiated not via a “camouflage” signal, but on a breakout buy-stop two ticks above a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. We also considered reasons why a strong rally in the E-Mini S&P that morning was sufficient to imply the stock market will remain strong into 2011.
Why Subtleties Matter
– Posted in: TutorialsPaying close attention to subtleties can yield analytical rewards, as it did when we noticed how a rally in Silver had failed to surpass some seemingly minor peaks on the 15-minute chart. The implication was that buyers were spent for the day, an observation that later proved to be correct. Gold and Silver were in tired but nonetheless bullish consolidations on this particular morning, but we still found ways to force trades in each via camouflage. We also discussed ways to exploit an expected 15-point rally in the E-Mini S&Ps – a goal fraught with danger, since the futures were already up 15 points, caught in a pre-Thanksgiving short-squeeze.