Apple Computer

AAPL has looked pretty punk for the last couple of weeks, but I am proffering a bullish chart nonetheless because bears couldn't drive the stock down to a correction  target at 145.95 last week. (It remains theoretically valid.)  The stock in fact reversed almost precisely from the p2 secondary pivot of the pattern, which often foretells strong moves in the opposite direction. We should hold the oohs and ahhs, however, until such time as buyers show their stuff at p=153.40 (corrected). This midpoint pivot can be used as a minimum upside projection for now, subject to revision if the stock should dive below C=146.41. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 4:19 p.m. EST): This morning's adroitly engineered short-squeeze did what mere bullish buying could never have accomplished, pushing AAPL decisively above p=153.40 and an important prior peak. Factor in the subsequent close above the pivot, and it all but guarantees that D=160.38 will be reached. ______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 9:07 p.m.):  The guarantee of a move to 160.38 (see above) was all but fulfilled today when the crime syndicate that works AAPL goosed it to 158.67, courtesy of yet more short-covering.

I'd expected AAPL to struggle last week, but the rally was more labored and modest than I'd imagined. We'll use the 153.86 target shown as a minimum upside objective for now, since the reverse pattern from which it is derived has worked well so far, nicely catching reversal points in both directions.  It is exhausted for purposes of 'mechanical' set-ups, but you could put in a 'mechanical' stink bid at p=146.07 nonetheless, using a stop-loss at 143.53. You can also short 153.68 using the tightest stop-loss you can abide. This post returns AAPL to the core list of touts that appear on this page regularly. It has replaced IWM. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 11:09 p.m.):  The trend failure 69 cents shy of my 153.86 target is not a healthy sign.  Most immediately, more slippage to at least D=145.95 looks very likely. Here's the chart, which shows how sellers trounced p=149.19 on the way down.

AAPL partly recouped heavy overnight losses so effortlessly on Friday that one can barely discern a swoon on the daily chart. Every selloff for the last nearly 13 years has turned out to have been a buying opportunity, so why should this one be any different? Punk earnings, or even the lowering of expectations, haven't had much impact on the stock, other than to shake out widows and pensioners. Look for AAPL to spend the early part of the week digesting Thursday's uninspiring report before making a run for the all-time high at 157.26 recorded on September 7.

AAPL remains on autopilot for a finishing stroke to at least 151.02, a target that has been theoretically in play since October 4. Apple shares were trading for around $141 then, about 7% below the recent high. The rally's progress had been slow until a week ago, when back-to-back short-squeeze rallies did what mere bullish buying could never have accomplished. The artificially induced buying spasm penetrated deeply into layers of supply deposited over the summer.  This is how the chimps who make their living going all-in with clients' money work, lifting their offers when short-squeeze opportunities are at their ripest.  Realize that it is the Titantc they are hoisting -- the biggest company in the world, with a capitalization of $2.5 trillion. But the effort is worth it, since keeping just this one stock on an upward path has helped sustain the illusion of health in a thousand pension funds, including some of the very biggest. Looking just ahead, I'll recommend reversing long positions at 151.02 with the purchase of a few put options. This is a speculative bet, so risk no more than you could comfortably lose on a a 20-to-1 horse. Concerning the supply zone from last summer, although AAPL has pushed through this landfill easily with its recent show of bravado, the stock could find itself bogged down there for months once it has completed the run-up to 151.02. Caveat emptor. ______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 8:45 p.m. ET): The stock fell nearly $2 after topping 18 cents (0.18%)  from the 151.02 target.  If you bought any put spreads as I advised in the chat room, please let me know so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:33 p.m.): AAPL's lunatic leap through 151.02 was of course bullish and guarantees

Considering that AAPL is the most dependable bellwether we could have imagined for a bull market that has been powered by virtually unlimited quantities of money and unprecedented hubris, we should be most gratified to see it tracking a pattern that absolutely, positively cannot miss. By that I mean that the 151.02 target when reached will produce a precisely shortable peak, and that a decisive push past p on Monday or Tuesday will all but guarantee that 'D' will be achieved.  The pattern has also produced a juicy 'mechanical' buy that would have yielded a $1,280 gain on four round lots. Moreover, it seems likely that any more such signals would work equally well.  The only uncertainty in the picture is the precise stall Friday at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 144.65. This is the second stall there in a week, and for all we know it could mark the end of the bull market. I mention this because the very suggestion sounds so ridiculous. To be sure, AAPL is taking its sweet old time pushing past p=144.65. But we shouldn't mistake this for weakness; it is deception, really, and that is why the bearish buzz that permeated the Rick's Picks chat room on Friday seemed so odd. Are bears seeing what I am seeing? Evidently not.

Hard selling on Friday generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart while also breaching a clear Hidden Pivot support at 4147.50 shown in the chart. This means that still lower prices are all but certain; however, bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. I say this because although the S&Ps, the Dow and the Russell 2000 got pounded last week, the chimpanzees who "manage" your money were applying a light touch to their flavor-of-the-month favorite, the Nasdaq 100. The implication is that any weakness we saw last week was tightly scripted, and that the chimps are simply rotating money so that it can hold stocks aloft more efficiently. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, look for a turn near 4100, or if not there, then around 4032. A 'reverse ABC' set-up on the 60-minute chart can be used to bottom fish, using a=4185.50 (6/17 at 1:00 p.m.) to anchor the pattern).  If you're uncertain about how to do this, wait for a simpler trade to come along that you understand. The short in this vehicle suggested by 'Farmer' in the Trading Room last Thursday night is a good example. It was simple to execute (if not without risk)  and is currently showing a profit of around $14,000 on four lots for anyone who followed him in and stuck with the position. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 10:38 a.m. ET):  A murderous short squeeze has turned the futures violently upward from 4126, well above my set-up level for bottom-fishing.  The closest obstacle is p=4218.25 of the pattern shown in the chart. It can serve for now as a minimum upside objective. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 9:40): The hysteria has hit 4221.50. No subscriber reported holding a position, so I have not provided tracking guidance. However, and for what it's worth, Farmer reports

The chart contains a hint of Philadelphia, where a corrupt Democratic machine stepped in late at night to pull out the election for Biden. In this case, the carny men who feed off a stock market they've cleverly rigged, pulled AAPL out of a tailspin that almost stopped out the bullish pattern shown.  This has drawn our focus to the 127.52 midpoint resistance, albeit not yet to the secondary pivot at 139.72 that sits above it. The lower number became our minimum upside objective last week and remains so, although not with the high confidence we've had in the past in AAPL's gaffed momentum. Even so, our short-term bias for trading purposes should be bullish, predicated on a probably balky move to the target. The old 'D' target at 151.93 that we used to profitably butterfly the stock at one point is still valid but feels a little too ambitious at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 8:48 p.m.): The red line at 127.52 looks like a promising place to get short, but the trade is unlikely to pan out until next week if it happens at all.

AAPL shares got hit last week on news that sales in China had been impacted by supply-chain problems.  I said at the the time that these difficulties would be forgotten by Monday, since that has been the pattern in AAPL for years: 'Bad news? Who cares.' In this instance, however, I was looking for countervailing strength in the election outlook to hold all stocks, most particularly AAPL, aloft. Instead, investors showed little confidence last week in their ability to pick Tuesday's big winner. We'll have to wait until Wednesdays for the election to have whatever impact it's going to have. The 151.94 rally target will remain valid unless C=103.11 is penetrated to the downside. We made a small profit on some bullish butterfly spreads cashed out earlier. Let's do it again, but using a 128.24 rally target that is more realistic. Bid 0.25 for eight Nov 20 120/125/130 call butterflies, good till noon Tuesday, and only if the stock has not traded lower than 107.85, There's a good chance I will adjust this order, or even attempt to leg on the spread for less than 0.10, so stay tuned to the chat room and your email for further guidance. If you are uncertain about how to execute the spread, review the recorded lesson on this topic on your account page.  You should also have 'notifications' checked to receive updates in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:36 pm. ET): The stock slipped below 107.85 in the early going, nullifying our plan. We'll let it rest on election day. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:19): The institutional chimps are back, force-feeding tons of Other People's Money up AAPL's old wazoo.  Its immediate destination is the 127.52 midpoint pivot shown in this chart, but there are no guarantees it will get there straightaway

We cashed out some profitable butterfly spreads pegged to a still-viable 151.94 rally target, but there's no rush to put on the position again. To be sure, AAPL remains capable of reaching the target in the weeks following a Trump victory. But as I tried to make clear here and in the chat room, the stock is unlikely to take off until investors are pretty confident about this. Things were edging in that direction on Friday after Biden got hit with some damning charges concerning graft and corruption that made him and his family distrustfully rich during his 50-year career as a politician.  But the reaction so far to the news, which has been covered only by Fox, has not been strong enough to light a fuse on Wall Street. Athough the smart-money guys who manipulate AAPL for a living may seem bold at times, they are in fact wussies who would not dare make the slightest move unless they are certain the headlines or story of the hour will support it. For now, let's see how much further they take the stock down before we jump on some more bull spreads. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:25 p.m. ET): AAPL's quarterly results in China disappointed, and that will put some drag on this otherwise unstoppable bull-market engine. The negative report will be forgotten by Monday and will have no effect in any case after the election. Stay tuned, since Monday's edition may contain suggestions for leveraging the gusher-of-relief rally that will happen if Trump wins.