Comex Gold Futures

If you had used the 1011.90 "trigger" price given here yesterday to get long for the big push, you could not have fared poorly.  Notice in the accompanying chart that the first time the drum-rolled number was exceeded -- by a nicely camouflaged single tick! -- it produced a pullback and C-D follow-through that made entering with-the-trend a stress-free undertaking.  The mechanical aspects of the trade were discussed in the chat room as the opportunity unfolded, and it appears that some subscribers were able to take advantage. Today, look for the follow-through to reach a minimum 1028.10.  Any higher would suggest the futures are on their way toward achieving the 1074.50 target we've been focused on for a while.

Gold is trading almost exactly where it was a month ago, unable at the moment to push above an _____ resistance on the hourly chart to create a bullish impulse leg, but just as incapable of probing minor targets to the downside.  Indeed, Friday's low at 987.00 "should have" occurred nearly $12 lower, at 975.60, and the fact that the futures never even got close suggests that sellers lack conviction. By week's end, however, we should expect to see the pressure ease so that the futures can begin their ascent to a _____ target we've been using for some time as a minimum upside objective.

The squiggle at 1011.80 that I mentioned appears to have worked as an "external" peak , since it closely contained rally attempts during each of the last two sessions. The price peaks thereof are sufficiently developed at this point to negate the importance (and usefulness) of our knobby benchmark, so we'll revert to an earlier forecast that said gold would struggle to little avail for perhaps 7-10 days before attempting a push toward an important Hidden Pivot target at _____. We're about halfway through that period now.   

On a wrenching day, gold managed nonetheless to shinny two-thirds of the way up the flagpole created by last Thursday's dive. In the process, the December contract settled just above the 1006.80 midpoint resistance shown in the chart. This portends more upside to its 'D' sibling, _____, but I don't trust that target so thoroughly that I'd simply buy here with a 7-point stop-loss.  Better to use camouflage, which can be found in a look-to-the-left peak at 1011.90 that on the hourly chart is not really a peak at all. The assumption is that if you zoom in on the "knob" with a 5-minute chart, you'll find a look-to-the-left peak there, just waiting to be used.

Considering that Gold has simply been loitering near $1000, chat-room interest in the stuff seems somewhat fevered.  Relative to my forecast for the dollar and U.S. Treasurys (see today's touts), I see bullion remaining under pressure for perhaps another week or two before it advances on a long-standing Hidden Pivot target at _____.  I'll be ready to reconsider if the December futures start pumping out some bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart (or even a mere 1001.70 on the 5-minute bars) , but until that time, keep the 970.80 downside target in mind as a worst-case number for the near term. _______ UPDATE (1:21 p.m.): We lucked out during this morning's weekly tutorial session, when a "camouflage" entry opportunity at 1004.50 popped up unexpectedly. It allowed us to get long almost risklessly.  The 'D' target of the minor pattern used to make entry was 1005.70, but longs were advised to hold onto at least a small portion of their original positions for potentially bigger thrills ahead. [Note: Recordings of more than 30 Wednesday sessions are available to all seminar grads. The seminar fee includes three months' access to the recordings, but if you've used that up, please contact mikej165@gmail.com to renew.)

Neither bulls nor bears seems particularly inspired at the moment, although the edge still goes to the latter and to the downside target given here previously:  _____.   A descent to that Hidden pivot would become an odds-on bet if its midpoint sibling at 985.60 is exceeded on a closing basis.  Alternatively, the futures would need to touch _____ on a rally Monday night or Tuesday to turn the minor trend bullish. A more important midpoint resistance would come into play thereupon, and with its breach a potential run-up to ______. 

Gold's two setbacks this year have averaged about 12%, which would imply a pullback to around $940. Would that be so bad? In any event, my worst-case correction target for the near term is _____, predicated on a breach of that Hidden Pivot support's midpoint sibling at _____. Friday's low exceeded the midpoint by just one tick, so we should view it as still intact. As always, interaction with these pivots will be the key to gauging the strength of the downtrend.  Alternatively, we should set the bar at _____ to alert us to a decisive, bullish turn on the hourly chart. 

The corrective rally Thursday night promised to deliver no more than _____ -- and that was only if the Hidden Pivot's midpoint sibling at 997.30 is exceeded. Promises sometimes get broken, though, and we should take it as a bullish sign if it happens here. However, it would take nothing less than _____ to turn the lesser intraday charts decisively bullish. If we study Thursday's tumult from the top of the 5-minute chart on down, we find a Hidden Pivot at _____ that can serve as a worst-case target for the near term.  And as always, price action at the ______ midpoint pivot will tell us whether our coordinates are the right ones.

I'll stick with the _____ rally target flagged in yesterday' s update, although a leisurely buy on a pullback to the _____ midpoint associated with that number does not appear to be forthcoming. The print at _____ would be a big deal, since, as noted here earlier, it would surpass a high at ______, refreshing the bullish impulse on the weekly chart.  That high is no less relevant because it occurred in thin trading, by the way. To the contrary, it is all the more legitimate as an "external" peak because it was recorded by the December futures, not by a continuous contract.