Comex Gold Futures

Bears seemed outmatched trying to push this correction down to a modest, 1222.40 Hidden Pivot support identified Friday in the chat room, and they will be defeated if the futures go just a tad higher Sunday night, exceeding the 1237.90 point 'C' of the retracement abc.  But check out the five-minute chart (inset) if you want to see why they had better run for the hills if the rally prints 1240.00, a tick above a subtle but important look-to-the-left peak. ______  UPDATE (2:44 a.m. EDT):  The futures have traded as high as 1242.80;  now watch how quickly they get to 1282.40!

Gold has been delivering the goods lately with such easy aplomb that we needn't burden ourselves from day to day with a high standard of proof.  So let it be merely for the sake of enjoyment that we contemplate today's chart, which evinces the carefree spirit of an energetic and healthy bull market.  Specifically, we should look for the downward arc of Thursday evening's so-far picture-perfect correction to reverse from the c-d midpoint (aka 'p') or higher.  There are of course no guarantees in this game, but bargain hunters should look to get aboard, ideally before the start of Friday's regular session, via a 1231.20 bid, stop 1230.70.  This tactic will remain valid as long as the 1239.30 point 'C' of the pattern remains intact. ______ UPDATE (11:41 a.m. EDT:  Wow.  We sometimes need to remind ourselves that a healthy bull is so obvious to all that it must necessarily vex, frustrate and even defenestrate seekers of easy profits by turning vicious without warning.  This the futures did last night, spiking just before dawn to a 1249.70 breakout high just 50 cents above Wednesday's summit; then, going into a power dive that shed $32 of valuation in a relative trice.  Our would-be bottom-fishing tactic was negated by these histrionics, sparing us anguish and pain but in no way compromising a still-bullish picture.

Buyers took out the 1243.10 rally target without much effort, implying they'll soon be back for more. Potential over the near tern -- in this case, meaning the next 3-5 days -- is 1286.30, a Hidden Pivot resistance that comes from the daily chart.  More immediately, the futures appeared to be struggling to reach a 1230.70 retracement target after having penetrated its midpoint sibling 1236.00. You can bottom-fish with a 1230.30 stop-loss if the opportunity should arise. ______ UPDATE (1:28 a.m. EDT): The futures have exceeded the minor support at 1230.70 and now look bound for a somewhat more important one at 1226.80 (5m chart, A=1249.10 on May 12).  Since they are rallying from 1227.50, however, we may have seen the lows for this correction.  A bullish turnaround would be corroborated by a print at 1235.40, which would create a bullish impulse leg on the five-minute chart.

The futures have been shredding minor rally targets with the greatest of ease, so it'll be interesting to see how well they do in the featured match-up against 1243.10, a Hidden Pivot that is,  as we like to say, not chopped liver.  Notice in the chart how all three price points -- A, B  and C -- are single-bar affairs on the hourly chart, producing a rally pattern that is clean, nicely symmetrical and compelling.  This suggests that although the target will be achieved as forecast, it is not likely to be a pushover.  If it is bulldozed within an hour of first being touched, however, it'll be a good time to start pondering the monthly chart, with its 1398.50 (!)  target. ______ UPDATE (10:53 a.m. EDT):  A powerful, $26 rally hit 1245.40, effectively pulverizing the targeted resistance and all but guaranteeing higher prices over the near term.

Friday's 1214.90 peak will have double stopping power because of a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance not far below it at 1213.75.  A close above the latter number would signal that the futures are ready to take a leg up to 1243.10. There were no glowing opportunities to get long early Monday evening, although  the  1193.70 midpoint shown in the chart would be worth bottom-fishing if the opportunity should arise. It would of course be preempted if the futures rally first above the 1204.80 high I've used for a point 'C'. _______ UPDATE (1:22 a.m. EDT): A gentle rally surpassed 1204.80 overnight, negating the opportunity.

Friday's robust thrust fell ten dollars shy of a 1224.70 target, subjecting Gold to a little more bullying than usual Sunday evening.  We can ignore it as long as the futures hold above 1189.20, but anything below that number will create a mildly bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. If there's opportunity brewing for night owls, it would likely come from the 15-minute chart (shown).  The modest downtrend has a midpoint pivot at 1195.80 that you can bottom-fish with a three-tick stop-loss, and another Hidden Pivot at 1188.90 that deserves the same treatment.  Both lie just below "structural" supports whose breach will be read by most traders as breakdowns. _______ UPDATE (2:21 a.m. EDT):  A rally Sunday night invalidated the two downside targets but created two new ones. The first is a midpoint support at 1198.60 that has already been breached; the second, a 'D' target at 1190.70 that you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If it's hit, look for more selling down to 1187.70, my worst-case low for today and another spot to try bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (8:57 a.m. EDT): The futures have exceeded  1187.70, bottoming so far at 1184.40 and hinting of still more weakness to come. They'd need to pop above 1206.50 today to undo the damage.

The Hidden Pivot rally targets furnished here yesterday provided useful benchmarks to gauge the strength of the uptrend, since each in its turn very precisely defined a minor-cycle peak.  The highest of those targets,  1208.90, was eventually exceeded by $3 -- enough for us to infer that buyers will continue to dominate in the days ahead. If so, look for the next thrust to carry to as high as 1224.70.  That target would be corroborated by a pullback to around 1190.40, its sibling midpoint. You can try bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 1189.90, but the officially approved tactic would be to initiate at 'X' of the first uptrending ABC pattern on the lesser charts (i.e., via camouflage).  If this occurs during regular hours, I will be in the chat room to guide you.

The bounce from yesterday's lows looked bound for 1188.70 at the close, subject to midpoint resistance at 1179.50.  A print at that last price would not encounter any obvious structural resistance, so it's possible we would have relatively little competition if we were  to attempt to get long on a breakout above our "invisible resistance." As of around 9 p.m. EDT, there were no downtrends on the lesser charts to set up a possible bottom-fishing attempt. _______ UPDATE (9:03 a.m. EDT):   The strategy was a winner, since the futures surged $6 after stalling at precisely 1179.40 for two two hours in the wee hours.  They have since sold off as they so very often do after making an overnight high, but the 1188.70 target will remain valid in theory as long as 1170.30 has not been breached to the downside. _____ FURTHER UPDATE (11:27 a.m. EDT):  The futures rallied to exactly 1188.60, then pulled back to a so-far low of 1182.00.  They appear to be consolidating for another run-up, but it seemed to be developing too slowly to hit its 1202.40 target during this session.    Keep in mind that we have a more important target working as well -- at 1208.90.

Yesterday's pullback to within three ticks of a Hidden Pivot midpoint I'd flagged at 1166.60 validates a bullish pattern with a 1208.90 target best viewed on the weekly chart (A=1086.10 on March 26).  The target will remain valid as long as the futures fall no lower than 1124.30 (aka point 'C'), but encouragement in the meantime would come from bearish abc corrections that fail to reach their 'd' targets.  The first such correction was still in progress when the regular session ended yesterday, but I'll update this advisory intraday as useful clues develop. Most immediately, on the 5-minute chart there is an enticing bottom-fishing possibility at 1157.80. Since the bounce from its sibling midpoint was just two ticks from exact, you could use a stop-loss just 4-5 ticks beneath an 1157.80 bid. _______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m. EDT):  Gold's fright-wig swoon was meaningless technically, although it did stop us out for a small loss before bottoming at 1156.20.  The fact that the futures went $10 below the midpoint support/resistance is no reason for anxiety.  They are "entitled" to do so because the initial thrust above the midpoint exceeded it by a whopping $26.  Bulls still have the edge here, and significantly.