Comex Gold Futures

We shouldn't read too much into the feints, whoops, glissandos and diminuendos of late, since, let's face it, the futures have been stuck in a range since January.  That said, they are about to squander a bullish opportunity if they fall below _____, the point 'C' low that followed the creation of an impulse leg of daily-chart degree in early August. That would foreshadow, not some killer leg down, but, more likely, yet another period of lazy buoyancy at a somewhat lower level. More immediately, the December contract could fall to as low as _____ if it smashes the _____ midpoint associated with that Hidden Pivot. (Note to pivoteers: A=961.30 on the hourly chart, August 14 at 9 a.m.) 

The rally's stall at 963 yesterday validates a yet-to-be-achieved rally target at _____, since the target's midpoint sibling is 962.40 -- just 0.70 from the intraday high. The target looks like it's in-the-bag to me, but I'll be watching to see whether the futures push past it without much fuss, presumably drawn by a magnetic supposed barrier at $1000.

I mentioned a downside target at _____ in an update  yesterday, but there's another at ______ that looks more compelling. Bottom-fishers can nibble there with a very tight stop-loss, but my hunch is that the futures will fall to the lower number if the first is exceeded by 80 cents or more. Alternatively, a run-up to at least _____ would be needed today to turn the hourly chart buoyant once again.

Gold's breach of a minor midpoint support at 958.00 om Friday implies moderate weakness down to as low as ____ over the near term. That's a Hidden Pivot support, and it should be viewed as a low-risk buying opportunity. Bid there with a ____ stop-loss if the chance arises. Alternatively, a pop above _____ would create a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts, turning the minor trend back to bullish.

A Hidden Pivot at ____ is still my minimum upside expectation for the near term, but if the futures pull back before launching toward that number, they would likely find traction near _____, its midpoint sibling. The most bullish scenario I could imagine for today would be a close above ____.  That would make the target at _____ broached here earlier a shoe-in next week.

Gold extended a five-day rally to surpass a second peak on the daily chart. This is unmistakably bullish and makes a push to $1000 over the near term very likely, even if it's not the rally that will take prices into the promised land.  My gut feeling is that new peak exceeded yesterday -- 968.90, recorded on June 10 -- should have been breached a day earlier if this bull cycle were destined for greatness. In any event, a move up to at least _____ now appears all but certain. The target is show in the accompanying chart, and, as always, if it's easily exceeded we should infer that still higher prices are likely -- in this case, a minimum _____.   

A thrust above _____ is still needed to refresh the bullish trend on the daily chart.  However, if the futures pull back below _____today, that would imply they are not ready for a surge past 1000 in August. Night owls should look for a re-test of the _____ low made at 3:55 p.m. EDT, since its breach would portend more weakness to as low as _____.

Friday's pop looked encouraging on the hourly chart, but let;s hold the applause until such time as bulls duplicate this feat on the daily chart. That would take a further thrust past the ____ peak recorded June 10 on the way down.  For maximum effect, the rally would need to occur without a pause of more than a day once the first peak at _____ has been surpassed.

Expect more sloppy action in the days ahead, perhaps with a mild downward bias. My do-little forecast is based not on dueling impulse legs, but on bullish and bearish targets that are not getting achieved. Although Wednesday's selloff  "should have" come down to at least 920.40, the actual low was 927.60. And while yesterday's bounce "should have" exceeded 940.50, it went no further than 939.40. Night owls looking to scalp a few points can try bottom-fishing at 932.90, stop 932.40. Bulls should take encouragement from any rally exceeding 940.50. ______ UPDATE (2:45 p.m.): Today's sharp upthrust is encouraging, especially since it came off a low that failed by 80 cents to reach our 932.90 correction target. However, for bulls to move into position to trample sellers, they'll need to push the futures above two prior peaks on the daily chart that have yet to be challenged. They lie, respectively, at  962.70 (July 27) and 969.90 (June 10).  An unpaused rally surpassing those two peaks would greatly shorten the odds of a sustained move into autumn.