Comex Gold Futures

By failing to take out anyinteresting peaks on the intraday charts, yesterday's quasi-rally left bulls something to shoot at today:  i.e.,  two peaks -- an internal and an external -- that need only be surpassed to generate some heat on the lesser charts. I won't hazard a prediction as to whether this will occur, but if not, it would leave the August contract vulnerable to at least _____, a somewhat obscure Hidden Pivot that comes from the 15-minute chart (A=966.00).

I'll try to cover the tradable angles in Tuesday morning's briefing, but the big picture has turned disappointing with August Gold's recent failure to create a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart.  As you can see, although the thrust to peak #1 got past two prior peaks, it died in a two-stage correction; now, the second thrust is dying/correcting after failing to take out a second peak. These are squandered opportunities, and although the long-term picture is most surely not bearish, neither does it offer much evidence that Gold is ready for a blast into the next galaxy.  That could change with a quick surge touching  1020.80, but until that occurs we should look for more consolidation in the days and weeks ahead.  

Conventional support down near 945.00 will likely turn magnetic if the futures take out Friday's lows.  The actual bottom at 953.80 was a single tick from the target shown in the chart. Considering it took the August contract two days to make its way down to the pivot, the so-far modest bounce must be judged disappointing. If the bounce continues, there are no peak-lets along the steep wall of Friday's decline that we could use for handholds to get on board. Under the circumstances, we'll have to settle for a move above Friday's 966.00 recovery peak to signal a possible turnaround, but it looks too obvious to afford us an edge.

In after-hours trading, the futures were adding to the implied potency of the day's rally, pushing for the first time above a small but technically significant peak made on the way down Wednesday. The breach was by just two ticks, but that is enough to set up a potential camouflage entry opportunity whose details weree still firming as of 7:43 p.m. EDT.  I have indicated in the accompanying chart how the opportunity could play out, and I would encourage experienced pivoteers in the chat room to share the entry tactic once its details are complete. _______ UPDATE: Moments after I prepared this tout (and chart), the futures downticked, all but negating the entry opportunity noted above.  Even so, it has not negated the implication of real strength percolating quietly beneath  the surface.

From a  Hidden Pivot standpoint, yesterday's damage was muted because the dive did not exceed the look-to-the-left cluster of lows shown in the chart.  My outlook for the (Wednesday) night session will therefore be cautiously bullish, although opportunities for night owls to get long appeared limited. Practically speaking, you'll need to drill down to the one-minute chart before you can find any prior peaks that would be usable for a "point X entry" with-the-trend. The first that is as yet unused lies at _____, but by the time the futures get there, any camouflage would be compromised.

As of around 10:35 p.m., the futures were showing little of the feistiness that propelled them so vigorously from Tuesday's lows; however, neither were they backing off in repentance of the rally. Moreover, once they get second wind, we should look for the push to reach _____ at a minimum, or _____ if any higher. For night owls looking to get on board, there wasn't much in the way of handholds. I've included a chart that shows a possible one, although sellers are showing some reluctance at the moment to complete the abcd correction in the way we might wish.  A pattern of similar subtlety is what you'll need to get long with relatively little risk.  

The futures sold off hard after making their high early in the day -- but then, when haven't they done so?  The important thing is that buyers had no trouble pushing the August contract past a Hidden Pivot resistance at 985.80 noted here earlier. Night owls should put a stink bid in at 970.60 stop 969.90 and keep your fingers crossed. If the futures move higher without deferring to our niggardly effort, use a pullback that begins from between peaks 1 and 2 for "camouflaged" entry. _______ UPDATE: Sweeeet. The stink bid worked rather nicely, since August Gold touched a low of 970.50 overnight (i.e., 4 a.m. EDT)  before uncorking a nearly $18 rally to a so far high this morning of 988.30.

Shortly before 8 p.m. Sunday, the futures looked like they were struggling to go lower -- which is as it should be if the dominant trend is robustly bullish.  The minor correction so far has bounced precisely from a hidden pivot midpoint at 977. 70 (actually, a moment later, when I took a snapshot of the chart, it finally broke the support) , but I wouldn't recommend buying there on a re-rest. Less risky would be to bid ____ overnight, stop _____.  If the futures take off without deferring to our bid below the market, you can try entering on a "camouflaged" impulse leg that tops somewhere between the two minor peaks that I've labeled in the chart. _______ UPDATE (7:08 a.m. EDT): The 1066.40 target drum-rolled in today's commentary is very much in play now that its sibling midpoint at 985.20 has been eclipsed by nearly five points. A two-day close above the latter number would all but clinch it.

The futures have balked en route to a 984.50 rally target that should have been a piece of cake. They also failed to take out a 971.00 peak from May 20 that looked vulnerable. Taken together, these are signs of incipient timidity if not necessarily of weakness, but our suspicions would be allayed if the target is reached within the next day or two. Alternatively, the downtrend in progress at the close looked bound for 940.50 subject to last-ditch support at 945.10, its associative midpoint.