Comex Gold Futures

Bottom-fishing on Friday at 1141.90 as advised would have been a loser, since the futures slipped all the way down to 1139.20 before getting a decent bounce. By overshooting our Hidden Pivot support, June Gold was telegraphing the weakness that followed.  The downtrend could continue down to as low as 1118.40 and be considered healthy, but the futures will need to bounce at least $21.20 from some low above that number to announce the next phase of the rally cycle begun on March 24 from 1086.10.

We'll set the bar at 1166.40 today to alert us to a likely bullish resurgence.  Alternatively, any weakness that fails to grope its way down to at least 1144.40 should be regarded as mere noise.  It should also be viewed as a low-risk buying opportunity, since there's a Hidden Pivot at 1141.90 that looks well capable of providing tradable support.

Yesterday's feverish chop had a moderately bullish bias and a commensurately modest target:  1160.10.  It is an odds-on bet to be achieved, since, as of Wednesday night, the futures had pushed slightly past the 1158.40 midpoint resistance.   A print at 1160.10 would suffice to refresh the bull on the very lesser charts, but we should require a close above 1161.00 to avoid jumping the gun.  The spaces betwixt each of the three numbered peaks in the chart leaves ample room in theory for the development of a camouflage entry opportunity.

A midpoint support beckons at 1147.90 and can be bottom-fished with a four-tick stop-loss, provided the point 'C' of the pattern, 1154.30, has not been breached to the upside.  If the futures rise instead, they'd change the tenor of the lesser charts to bullish with a print exceeding 1158.80.  For a bigger picture please refer to today's commentary, which reiterates my requirements for a strong push up to $1245.

Yesterday's rally to 1170.70 was over before it began for those who lacked the wizardly prescience to have gotten long at the end of Friday's session. The fright-wig selloff that ensued has been technically gratuitous so far, but it gives us a mediocre Hidden Pivot for bottom-fishing Monday night at 1154.10. A two-tick stop-loss is suggested, since any lower will pick up interference from Friday's 1152.20 low.  That the so-far unsurpassed benchmark at 1171.80 flagged in yesterday's tout remains crucial to the short-term picture has now been proven beyond a doubt.

It's late Sunday night, and although the futures have reached the 1168.50 target as promised, they have yet to take out the look-to-the-left-peak at 1171.80 that I'd also noted as important.  However, given the hit the dollar is taking at the moment, a push above 1171.80 by June Gold would appear to be imminent. If and when it happens, we should use 1187.10 as our minimum objective for the near term.

I can promise you at least 1168.40, and soon, but the rally will have to do a little better than that,  knocking off December 7's look-to-the-left-peak at 1171.80, to induce a fresh rush of adrenalin. I should also note that the 1145.60 Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the major target at 1245.60 would be -- technically speaking -- left in the dust if the futures can muster a close only a few dollars above yesterday's 1152.90. That would suggest the rally is slipping beyond the control of the bad guys.

Eagle-eyed pivoteers may have noticed that the #4 peak in the chart accompanying today's gold commentary is a counterfeit, since there is no stick-down low preceding it.  No matter, since it looks and quacks like a duck at first glance, and because it is certain to offer the kind of resistance that only a real rally could surmount. Our target is 1245 (A=1030.00, from 10/28), and it will be in-the-bag if buyers can muster the same enthusiasm today that they showed yesterday.

Two steps forward, one step back:  Yesterday's surge may have produced only a small net gain for bulls, but it also refreshed the uptrend by punching past a minor resistance peak at 1139.30 recorded a month ago. To do it again, the futures would need to deliver a minimum 1143.30 today.  Notice in the chart how a rally falling just shy of that benchmark but which exceeds 1142.30, could conceivably provide great camouflage for a long entry. In this instance, you'll probably need quick reflexes to buy-stop your way aboard at the hypothetical point 'X' noted in the chart. _______ NIGHT WATCH:   At 2:16 a.m. EST, the futures were tracing out a second potential camouflage opportunity at a lower level than the one described above.  Using the 15-minute chart, A= 1135.70 (11:45 p.m.); B=1139.40; and C=1137.00 (single bar!).  These coordinates yield a relatively low-risk entry-point 'X' at 1138.00 (triggered already), an 1138.90 'p' midpoint and a 'D' target at 1140.70. _______ UPDATE:  Both trades triggered, although the first would have taken you only to the midpoint resistance (where partial profit-taking would have been in order). The futures have traded as high as 1149.00 this morning.